How to Influence Decisions - The Illusion of Choice | Aaron Calvert | TEDxManchester

Key Concepts

• Influence and Decision-Making: How subtle cues and psychological techniques can influence choices.
• Priming: Subconsciously influencing decisions through exposure to related stimuli.
• Confirmation Bias: The tendency to favor information confirming existing beliefs.
• Heuristics: Mental shortcuts used to make quick decisions, often based on past experiences.
• Commitment Bias: Sticking to an initial decision, even when presented with contradictory information.
• Autonomic Patterns: Predictable responses triggered by specific stimuli.
• Illusion of Choice: The perception of having a free choice when decisions are subtly guided.

Influencing Choice: The Red vs. Blue Box Experiment

Aaron Calbertt begins by presenting the audience with a choice between a red and a blue box, revealing that he has already influenced many to choose red even before explicitly asking.

• Initial Setup: The red box was strategically placed in his left hand (closest to the audience) and held in a way that it lingered in their view as they read from left to right.
• Verbal Cues: He used a slight intonation to make the red box seem more exciting.
• Priming: The TEDx logo, the carpet, and a sign at the registration desk all featured the color red, subconsciously priming the audience.
• Result: Over 75% of the audience chose red, demonstrating the power of subtle influence.

The Challenge of Free Choice: Olga and Claire

Calbertt then involves audience members Olga and Claire to demonstrate the difficulty of making truly free choices when influenced.

• Olga's Choice: Olga initially chose red, reinforcing the earlier demonstration of influence.
• Claire's Dilemma: Calbertt explains that it's difficult to change one's mind when put on the spot due to confirmation bias and heuristics.
• Heuristics Explained: Heuristics are mental shortcuts that lead people to rely on past experiences rather than current facts to minimize effort and maximize success.
• Interruption of Patterns: Advertising companies exploit these patterns to influence consumer behavior.

Demonstrating Autonomic Patterns: The Shout-Out Experiment

Calbertt conducts a series of quick-response exercises to illustrate how deeply ingrained certain associations are.

• Number Between 1 and 10: Most people shouted "seven."
• Vegetable: Most people shouted "carrot."
• Piece of Furniture: Most people shouted "chair."
• Explanation: These exercises demonstrate how, when put on the spot, people revert to basic instincts and societal patterns.

Commitment Bias and Peer Pressure: Claire's Second Choice

Despite knowing about the influences, Claire initially sticks with red, demonstrating commitment bias and resistance to peer pressure.

• Audience Input: The audience was asked to applaud for either sticking with red or changing to blue.
• Claire's Initial Decision: Claire initially sticks with red, illustrating the strength of commitment bias.
• A Second Chance: Calbertt gives Claire a chance to clear her mind and choose again.
• City Association: Claire names Philadelphia.
• Final Choice: Claire chooses red again.

Advertising and Stimulus-Response: Paula and the Final Decision

Calbertt introduces Paula as the "final decision maker" and uses advertising examples to illustrate how brands embed themselves in our minds.

• Jingle Completion: The audience successfully completes the "I'm lovin' it" McDonald's jingle.
• Drumbeat Recognition: The audience identifies the Cadbury chocolate brand from a famous drumbeat, even though the advert is 18 years old.
• Explanation: These examples show how simple stimuli can trigger autonomic responses and bring brands to the forefront of our minds.
• The Stakes are Raised: Calbertt reveals that one box contains a "surprise" and the other does not.
• Paula's Choice: Despite Calbertt's attempts to influence her, Paula chooses blue.

The Reveal: Red, Red, Blue

Calbertt reveals the contents of the boxes and the prediction he made.

• Red Box: Contains confetti.
• Blue Box: Contains a piece of paper with a prediction.
• The Prediction: The paper correctly predicts the order of choices (red, red, blue) and the city named by Claire (Philadelphia), signed by Calbertt.

Escaping the Illusion of Choice: A Three-Step Framework

Calbertt concludes by offering a three-step framework for making more independent choices.

1. Pause: Avoid quick, instantaneous decisions that lead to predictable patterns.
2. Think: Recognize when you are being primed or rushed into a decision. Ask yourself, "Am I being led?"
3. Think Outside the Box: Challenge the norm and don't accept the given options at face value.

Synthesis/Conclusion

Aaron Calbertt's presentation effectively demonstrates the pervasive influence of subtle cues, psychological biases, and advertising techniques on our decision-making processes. By understanding these influences and employing the three-step framework, individuals can strive to make more conscious and independent choices, escaping the illusion of choice that surrounds them. The red vs. blue box experiment, the audience participation, and the final prediction serve as compelling evidence of the power of influence and the importance of critical thinking.