How the Iran war is reshaping the future of Hamas — and the lives of Palestinians in Gaza | DW News

Key Concepts

• Axis of Resistance: A regional alliance led by Iran, including groups like Hamas, aimed at opposing Western and Israeli influence.
• Decapitation: The loss of top-tier leadership and organizational structure within a group.
• Pragmatic vs. Hardline Factions: Internal divisions within Hamas between those favoring diplomatic engagement (often Qatar-based) and those aligned with the IRGC (often Gaza-based).
• Disarmament: The proposed process of stripping Hamas of its military capabilities, currently a major point of contention in negotiations.
• Survival Mode: The state of the Gazan population, where daily existence (food, water, shelter) takes precedence over political engagement.

1. Current Status of Hamas in Gaza

Hamas is described as "weakened" and "decapitated," having suffered significant losses in both material assets and personnel. Despite this, the group remains a relevant political player by weaponizing the humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza.

• Population Density: The population has been squeezed into 40% of the Gaza Strip, increasing density from 5,500 people per square meter to 11,000.
• Leverage: Hamas uses the dire humanitarian situation—characterized by a lack of jobs, food, and infrastructure—as leverage against the international community.
• Political Relevance: The analyst argues that the Palestinian people are paying a high price to keep Hamas politically relevant, noting that 750 people have been killed since the start of the "fragile" ceasefire.

2. Regional Alliances and the "Iran War" Impact

The recent conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has forced Hamas into a precarious diplomatic position.

• The Qatar-Iran Dilemma: Hamas leadership resides in Doha, Qatar, under the protection of the Qatari government (with US/Israeli consent). However, when 85% of Iranian missiles targeted Gulf states (including Qatar), Hamas waited two weeks to respond, eventually issuing a statement that alienated its hosts.
• Consequences: Qatar has begun removing Hamas propagandists from its territory. The analyst notes that Hamas has lost significant "moral support" in the Gulf region, leaving the group isolated.

3. Internal Factions and Leadership

The internal structure of Hamas has shifted significantly since 2011-2012:

• Shift in Power: After Hamas left Syria, Iran shifted its support from the Qatar-based leadership to the Gaza-based military wing.
• Key Figures:
  • Khalil al-Hayya: Represents the pro-Iran, Gaza-based stream.
  • Khaled Mashal: Represents the more diplomatic, Qatar-based faction. Reports suggest he has been "shunned" by the IRGC and is currently attempting to initiate disarmament discussions.
• Leadership Vacuum: Following the death of Yahya Sinwar, Hamas has avoided formal elections (postponed from early 2025) and instead established a five-person leadership council to avoid individual accountability.

4. Disarmament and Political Transformation

The analyst argues that the current approach to disarmament is flawed:

• The "Means vs. End" Argument: Disarmament is currently being treated as a rigid precondition for any progress. The analyst contends it should be a means to a political transformation, not an end in itself.
• Damaging Sequencing: By making disarmament the primary condition, the process has become "impossible" and continues to harm the civilian population.

5. Public Sentiment in Gaza

Contrary to some narratives that suggest widespread support for Hamas, the analyst provides a different perspective:

• Declining Support: Polls from late 2025 indicate support for Hamas has dropped to as low as 18%.
• Authentic Dissent: Demonstrations against Hamas in March and May 2025 were genuine, not staged.
• Survival Over Politics: The primary reason for the lack of active political opposition is that the population is in "survival mode." With 1.9 million people displaced and 600,000 children out of school for three years, the struggle for basic necessities like water and food consumes all energy.

6. Notable Quotes

• "Hamas is paying or the people are paying a lot of a price for Hamas to be relevant politically relevant." — Yaser Abu Musa
• "I got the impression that the people were the last thing that everyone thinks about [in the negotiations]." — Yaser Abu Musa
• "The disarmament should be a means not an end. It should be a part of political transformation to give the idea and to give the concept that violence is not the way." — Yaser Abu Musa

Synthesis/Conclusion

Hamas is at a critical crossroads, caught between its historical alignment with Iran and its need for survival in a region that is increasingly hostile to its presence. The organization is internally fractured and has lost significant moral and political standing. Meanwhile, the civilian population in Gaza remains trapped in a humanitarian catastrophe, with their daily survival taking precedence over political outcomes. The analyst concludes that unless there is a shift toward a pragmatic political transformation—where disarmament is part of a broader peace process rather than a punitive precondition—the situation will continue to deteriorate for the Palestinian people.