How the German far-right fuelled a campaign of division ahead of constitutional court votes

Key Concepts

• Divide and rule strategy
• Influence manipulation campaign
• Polarization as a political strategy
• Disinformation and misinformation
• AFD (Alternative für Deutschland) strategy
• Constitutional court judge election
• Abortion debate
• Media literacy
• Political communication
• Network analysis
• Social media engagement

Analysis of the Constitutional Court Judge Election Debacle

The Significance of the Story

The postponement of the constitutional court judge election due to a successful influence manipulation campaign is a significant event. While disinformation and polarizing criticism are common in political discourse, this instance is unprecedented because it significantly contributed to altering a parliamentary decision. The campaign, though not the sole reason for the outcome, had a substantial impact.

Polyphere's Investigation

Polyphere analyzed approximately 41,000 Twitter posts related to the judge candidate. The analysis revealed a shift in the debate over a short 10-day period. The issue of abortion became a key trigger, mobilizing Twitter users and initiatives, and building pressure on the conservative party. Accusations of mistakes in her PhD thesis surfaced just hours before the election, ultimately leading to its postponement.

Distinguishing Polarization from Legitimate Campaigning

The campaign was not orchestrated by a single actor but emerged from a stable and extended network of far-right and populist right actors. This network exhibits a dynamic where issues are addressed, leading to online petitions, paid ads, and template emails to members of parliament. The key difference lies in the fact that this activity was catalyzed by false accusations, particularly the claim that the judge candidate was open to legalizing abortion until the 9th month of pregnancy.

The Role of False Accusations

The main trigger was the false accusation regarding the judge's stance on abortion. While critical reporting is necessary, the lack of time for proper conversation and the spread of misinformation escalated the situation. The judge's Wikipedia entry was edited, and right-leaning media outlets published reports, which were then amplified on Twitter.

The Viral Moment and its Impact

Beatrix von Storch's post was the most important post from the most important account observed. The tweet was extremely polarizing and emotional, focusing on the abortion issue. Other false accusations included framing the judge as a left-radical activist and misrepresenting her stance on vaccination and gender ideology. The AFD network amplified these statements, and an anti-abortion initiative launched a mailing tool connected to the false accusations.

AFD's Role in Distorting Facts

AFD accounts played a crucial role in shifting the debate from a legitimate campaign to a distortion of facts and manipulation by reproducing false claims. Other members of parliament also urged their viewers to contact conservative members of parliament with these false narratives.

The Conservative Party's Response

The conservatives were unprepared for the campaign and lacked the ability to communicate effectively online. They were not ready for the attacks and did not know how to rally their MPs.

AFD's Polarization Strategy

The AFD has adopted a strategy of polarization, aiming to shift views away from the center to the extremes. They seek to portray the center-left as radical and position themselves as the true conservatives. The incident with the judge was an opportunity to test this strategy.

Alice Weidel's Response to Polarization

When questioned about the benefits of polarization, Alice Weidel did not provide a direct answer. She also faced questions about whether the AFD would accept a court ruling regarding the party's aims to undermine German democracy, to which she gave a lengthy and evasive response.

Analysis of AFD Communication

AFD communication often uses misleading and partially false information. They are skilled at framing content and news reports to fit their narratives, such as Germany declining or pensioners suffering from poverty. They use bits and pieces of true facts mixed with false narratives to mobilize voters.

The Abortion Issue as a Tool

The abortion issue may have been used to prevent the candidate from becoming a judge who could potentially decide on a process to abolish the AFD. This remains unproven but aligns with the AFD's strategy paper.

The AFD Strategy Paper

The AFD's strategy paper outlines their plan to divide the coalition, frame themselves as true conservatives, and normalize their image. The paper highlights the importance of engaging with younger voters on social media platforms.

Lessons for Other Parties

Other political parties should study the AFD's strategy paper and prepare for attack campaigns. They need to improve their communication skills and be more active on social media platforms.

The Social Democrats' Stance

The vice-chancellor of the Social Democrats stated that it is a matter of principle not to give in to pressure from right-wing networks who defame a highly qualified woman.

The Lack of a Counter-Debate

There was a limited counter-debate, mainly from Green party accounts. The SPD did not join the conversation effectively, and the time frame was too short to respond effectively.

The Importance of Monitoring Debates

It is crucial to monitor debates closely and recognize that even the election of constitutional judges can be politicized. Policymakers need to be prepared for polarization and the use of political instruments.

Advice for Policymakers

Policymakers should take these discourses more seriously, follow them more closely, and understand what is happening on social media platforms. They need to have better coordination within parties and the government to be more resilient and coherent in their decision-making.

The AFD's Strategy in Action

The AFD's strategy is to normalize their image and portray the center-left as radical. This is evident in their focus on first-time voters and their engagement on social media platforms.

The Absence of a Culture War on Abortion

The abortion debate came out of the blue and ignited a mini culture war within the conservative camp.

Conclusion

The case of the derailed constitutional court judge election serves as a stark warning about the power of disinformation, polarization, and strategic manipulation in modern political discourse. The AFD's successful exploitation of these tactics highlights the need for increased media literacy, proactive communication strategies, and greater vigilance among policymakers and political parties. The incident underscores the importance of monitoring online debates, responding swiftly to false narratives, and recognizing that even seemingly non-political processes can be weaponized for political gain. The lessons learned from this event are crucial for safeguarding the integrity of democratic processes in Germany and beyond.