How stable can this peace deal really be? | DW News

Key Concepts

• Gaza Peace Plan: A multi-phased agreement aimed at ending the conflict, involving hostage/prisoner exchange, Israeli withdrawal, and humanitarian aid.
• Leverage: The power or advantage held by parties in negotiations, particularly Hamas's use of hostages.
• Achilles Heel: A critical weakness or vulnerability in the peace agreement.
• Administrative Detention: Imprisonment without formal charge or trial, a significant issue for Palestinian prisoners.
• Yellow Line: A predetermined line for the Israeli military's partial withdrawal in Gaza.
• International Security Forces: A proposed neutral armed presence on the ground to ensure the deal's implementation and protect civilians.
• Abraham Accords: Normalization agreements between Israel and Arab nations, brokered by the Trump administration.

Comprehensive Summary of the Gaza Peace Plan and its Implications

This discussion provides an in-depth analysis of the recently announced Gaza peace plan, spearheaded by former US President Trump, examining its prospects, challenges, and broader geopolitical context.

I. The Gaza Peace Plan: Breakthrough and Initial Optimism

US President Trump has claimed responsibility for ending "seven unendable wars" and hopes this Gaza peace plan will be his "eight." He announced a "momentous breakthrough" in the Middle East, aiming for a "lasting peace." Political scientist Ian Bremer expresses more optimism than in the past two years, attributing it to:

• US Leverage: The United States is exerting "real leverage" on the Israeli Prime Minister, with "real consequences" for the first time since October 7th, to uphold Israel's side of the deal.
• Hamas's Position: Hamas leaders "appear to believe" the deal offered is their "best shot," suggesting a willingness to trust the process. However, Bremer notes "enormous opacity" regarding Hamas's internal decision-making.
• Hostage Release: A critical first step is the release of 48 hostages held for two years. Bremer states that if this occurs, the "next phase of the deal is very likely to go forward smoothly."

II. Potential Obstacles and "Achilles Heels"

Despite the optimism, significant uncertainties remain:

• Hamas Leadership: Ian Bremer identifies Hamas leadership as the "Achilles heel" of the agreement. He argues that if Hamas releases all hostages, they would be giving up their "biggest weapon" and "only remaining leverage." Without military capability to "rain down more destruction on Israel" or "real deterrent capacity," they would be expected to disarm and not participate in Gaza's governance. This makes their full commitment to the deal, especially after Israeli attempts to assassinate their political leadership, highly uncertain.
• Israeli Right-Wing Government: The interviewer and Robert Chattery, Deputy Editor-in-Chief of Zenith magazine, suggest the right-wing segment of Netanyahu's government as a potential "Achilles heel."
  • Historical Precedent: A similar multi-phased deal earlier in the year "fell apart... because of Israeli internal politics."
  • Current Opposition: Bezalel Smotrich, a right-wing extremist minister, has already announced he will not vote for the current deal. Chattery recalls a previous arrangement where right-wing ministers were given "more leeway in the West Bank" in exchange for tacit approval of a Gaza deal, highlighting the internal political complexities.
  • Bremer, however, believes it's "significantly more likely than not that the Israeli cabinet goes ahead and approves this deal at this point," due to US pressure and Netanyahu's communication that this is the "best deal you're possibly going to get."

III. Trump's Role and Motivation

Trump's personal involvement is seen as crucial for the deal's potential success:

• Sustained Focus: Unlike some other foreign policy issues, Trump has "remained focused on both Russia-Ukraine and on Israel-Gaza" during the latter months of his presidency.
• Empowered Advisors: He has empowered "two of his most trusted advisors," Steve Whit and Marco Rubio, to lead on this. His son-in-law, who initially wanted to avoid politics, was brought back due to a "threat to his own signature Abraham Accords" if the deal failed.
• Gulf States' Involvement: The Gulf States, particularly Saudi Arabia (Muhammad bin Salman), were "critical to this deal," formulating it with Trump. Their significant investments in the US and close ties with Trump contribute to his sustained interest.
• Personal Investment: While Trump's interest in policy details might be low, his "continued interest in ensuring that the deal actually holds... is much higher than it would be on other issues."
• Nobel Peace Prize: Ian Bremer's tweet, "If Trump gets a Gaza deal, the hostages release, the fighting over Israeli troops withdrawal, he deserves everyone's credit, he'll certainly have mine," sparked discussion about a potential Nobel Peace Prize. Bremer clarified he was not endorsing a Nobel but acknowledging Trump's credit, comparing it to Obama's controversial award.

IV. Details of Phase One and On-the-Ground Realities

Journalist Karim Gajari reports from Cairo on the immediate next steps:

• Signing Ceremony: Egyptian President Sisi has invited Trump to Egypt for a signing ceremony next week, but this will only be for "phase one" of the ceasefire agreement.
• Phase One Components: This phase includes the "exchange of prisoners," "Israeli partial withdrawal," and "humanitarian aid coming in."
• Palestinian Prisoners: Over 10,000 Palestinians are imprisoned in Israel, with a third in "administrative detention." Hamas is pushing for the release of "political heavyweights."
  • Marwan Barghouti: A key demand from Hamas is the release of Marwan Barghouti, a Fatah member (not Hamas) and political heavyweight, sentenced to multiple life terms. He is seen as a potential unifier for Palestinians and future negotiator, but Israelis are "not ready to free him."
• Gaza Residents' Concerns: People in Gaza are in "survival mode," primarily asking, "When can we go home?" They are anxious about the timetable for Israeli army withdrawal to allow them to return to their houses, "to whatever is left of it."

V. The "Yellow Line" and International Security Forces

Robert Chattery discusses the practicalities of Israeli withdrawal:

• Partial Withdrawal: The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) would complete the first phase of its partial withdrawal to a "predetermined yellow line," as shared by President Trump.
• Continued Israeli Control: An Israeli spokesperson stated that the military would still control "53% of the Gaza Strip" after this withdrawal. Chattery describes this as a "line of control" and the "most contentious point" in negotiations, as it gives Israel control over half of Gaza and the ability to "attack or renage on the deal."
• International Security Forces: Chattery highlights the "international security forces" as the "most underappreciated and most important point" in the 20-point plan.
  • Changing the Equation: The presence of "another armed force on the ground" would "change the momentum" and "take away Israel's ability to unilaterally re-engage on any deal."
  • Shielding Palestinians: This force is crucial not only for securing Israel but, more immediately, for "shielding the Palestinian population from Israeli attacks that have been occurring for two years."
  • Test of Faith: The willingness of Israel to accept such a force and potentially "collapse the government if necessary" is seen as a major "test of faith."

VI. Trump's Frustration with Russia-Ukraine

The discussion also touches on Trump's engagement with the Russia-Ukraine conflict:

• Acknowledged Failure: Trump, who "never says that he's wrong about anything," has admitted "he's failed in getting Putin to the table." This frustration is a "bone stuck in his throat."
• Increased Pressure: His anger has led to a "greater willingness to pressure American allies to cut off their purchasing of oil from Russia," including friends like Victor Orban (Hungary) and Rzza Erdogan (Turkey).
• Constructive Conversations: It has also led to "more constructive conversations with Zelensky" regarding "extended range cruise missiles" to pressure Russia's oil production, which funds the war.

Conclusion

The Gaza peace plan represents a significant, albeit fragile, diplomatic effort. While there is cautious optimism driven by US leverage and Hamas's perceived willingness, the agreement faces substantial challenges from both Hamas's internal dynamics (especially post-hostage release) and the internal politics of Netanyahu's right-wing government. Trump's personal investment and the involvement of Gulf States are critical for its initial momentum. However, the long-term success hinges on the implementation of key provisions like the "yellow line" withdrawal and, most importantly, the deployment of international security forces to ensure stability and protect the Palestinian population. The plan's ability to overcome these hurdles will determine if it truly marks the "beginning of the end" of the Gaza war or another temporary ceasefire.