How should Trump negotiate with Putin? | BBC News

Key Concepts:

• Mediation, Negotiation (political, commercial, humanitarian)
• Public Diplomacy vs. Safe Environment for Concessions
• Impartiality and Neutrality in Mediation
• Conditions for Successful Ceasefires
• Power Dynamics within the Russian Government (Defense Ministry vs. Foreign Ministry)
• Black Sea Grain Deal
• US involvement in current talks

1. Assessment of Current Talks and the Role of Public Diplomacy:

• Martin Griffiths expresses dismay at the public diplomacy surrounding the talks, emphasizing that successful negotiations require a safe environment for concessions.
• He commends the US for its active involvement, with meetings happening "day and night in Saudi Arabia" and Sue Wickoff's presence in Russia, highlighting the importance of energy in the early stages.
• Griffiths stresses the need to "shut up instead of talking publicly" to allow for genuine progress behind closed doors.

2. Meeting with Sergey Lavrov (April 2022):

• Griffiths recalls a meeting with Sergey Lavrov in Moscow in April 2022, describing Lavrov as someone he had admired for decades.
• Lavrov criticized Griffiths' naivety, questioning the benefits for Russia and raising concerns about "horrible fascism" in Ukraine.
• The meeting was not particularly constructive, but it served as a "laying of the hands" and a starting point.
• Griffiths subsequently worked closely with Lavrov's deputy, Sergey Vashin, to make progress.

3. The Black Sea Grain Deal Negotiation:

• The Black Sea Grain Deal negotiation was complex, involving Kyiv and the Russian military leadership.
• Griffiths had been involved in the Azovstal Mariupol operation with both sides.
• A rivalry existed between the Russian Defense Ministry and the Foreign Ministry, with the latter being more suspicious of potential concessions.
• The Kremlin, particularly President Putin, was involved in every decision.
• Griffiths' strategy was to remain neutral and avoid getting entangled in internal power dynamics within the Russian government.

4. Challenges to Successful Negotiations and Ceasefires:

• Griffiths emphasizes the importance of impartiality and neutrality in mediation, even while acknowledging one's own interests.
• He stresses the need to focus on the conditions that will make a ceasefire and lasting peace more likely.
• He notes that the success rate of ceasefires is generally low.
• He is pleased that the US and others are now focusing on negotiating the outcomes carefully.

5. Concerns about US Approach:

• Griffiths acknowledges concerns about the US being perceived as overly critical of Ukraine and too lenient towards Russia.
• He notes that some statements from the US administration are "simply not true," which does not help the negotiation process.
• However, he understands the need for behind-the-scenes diplomacy and avoiding public disputes.

6. Notable Quotes:

• "You shut up instead of talking publicly about where we're going precisely because the concessions that are always needed in any negotiation political commercial humanitarian and so forth need to be done in a safe environment."
• "...you should be impartial and neutral about engaging with the parties and perhaps more importantly...you should actually attend to the conditions or positions...which are likely to make the end of war the ceasefire and beyond likely."

7. Technical Terms and Concepts:

• Mediation: A process where a neutral third party helps conflicting parties reach a mutually acceptable agreement.
• Public Diplomacy: Communicating with foreign publics to establish a dialogue designed to inform and influence.
• Concessions: Something yielded or agreed to in negotiations.
• Ceasefire: A temporary suspension of fighting.

8. Logical Connections:

• The discussion moves from a general critique of public criticism to a specific analysis of the Russia-Ukraine negotiations.
• Griffiths' experience with the Black Sea Grain Deal provides context for his insights into the current challenges.
• The rivalry between the Russian Defense Ministry and Foreign Ministry illustrates the complexities of negotiating with Russia.
• The emphasis on impartiality and focusing on conditions for peace connects to the broader goal of achieving a lasting resolution.

9. Synthesis/Conclusion:

Martin Griffiths emphasizes the importance of quiet, behind-the-scenes diplomacy, impartiality, and focusing on the conditions necessary for a lasting peace in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. He cautions against public criticism and highlights the complexities of negotiating with Russia, including internal power dynamics and the need for concessions. While acknowledging concerns about the US approach, he stresses the importance of their involvement and the need to prioritize the factors that will contribute to a successful ceasefire and beyond.