How safe is Japan's nuclear comeback? | CNA Correspondent podcast

Japan's Nuclear Restart: Balancing Energy Needs and Public Concerns

Key Concepts:

• Energy Self-Sufficiency: Japan’s low rate (12.6%) and reliance on imported fossil fuels.
• Fossil Fuel Dependence: 80.8% of Japan’s energy mix as of 2023.
• Nuclear Energy Mix: Current 4.1%, targeted 20% by 2040.
• Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Plant: World’s largest nuclear plant, poised for restart.
• TEPCO (Tokyo Electric Power Company): Operator of Fukushima and Kashiwazaki-Kariwa, facing public trust issues.
• Treated Water Release: Ongoing process from Fukushima, impacting regional and international relations.
• Spent Nuclear Fuel: A major challenge – finding a final, safe storage location.
• Energy Transition Goals: 46% CO2 emission reduction by 2030, net-zero by 2050.

1. Japan’s Energy Landscape & The Need for Nuclear

As of fiscal year 2023, Japan relies heavily on imported fossil fuels, constituting 80.8% of its energy mix: 35.6% oil (95% from the Middle East – Saudi Arabia & UAE being top suppliers), 24.5% coal (64% from Australia, 15.5% from Indonesia), and 20.7% LNG (41.6% from Australia, 15.6% & 6% from Malaysia, Russia & US). Japan’s self-sufficiency rate is a low 12.6%, ranking 37th among OECD nations (Norway and Australia rank highest). This dependence increased after the 2011 Fukushima disaster, which led to the shutdown of 54 nuclear reactors that previously supplied 30% of Japan’s energy. The subsequent reliance on restarting older, less efficient thermal power plants increased fossil fuel consumption.

The Japanese government views nuclear power as crucial for reducing reliance on imported energy, mitigating geopolitical risks, and achieving its energy self-sufficiency target of 40% by 2040, with nuclear contributing 20% of the energy supply. This shift is also driven by the need to reduce CO2 emissions – aiming for a 46% reduction from 2013 levels by 2030, and net-zero by 2050. Currently, clean energy sources comprise only 11% of the energy mix, highlighting the importance of nuclear in achieving these goals.

2. The Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Plant Restart & TEPCO’s Role

The planned restart of the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa plant, the world’s largest nuclear facility, is a pivotal step in this energy strategy. However, the plant’s operator, TEPCO, faces significant public distrust due to its handling of the 2011 Fukushima disaster. A Numura Research Institute survey in September 2023 revealed that 60% of residents near the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa plant believe it hasn’t met safety criteria.

The plant has a history of incidents, including a 2007 magnitude 6.8 earthquake that caused a fire and minor radiation leakage due to communication failures. TEPCO acknowledges these concerns and emphasizes improved safety measures. Mr. Masaku Takata, TEPCO’s risk communicator, stated, “We try to take away worries and build understanding of nuclear power. The fact that we will be able to restart Kashiwazaki Kariwa’s reactor 6 indicates we have taken one step forward.”

3. Enhanced Safety Regulations & Government Approval

Post-Fukushima, safety regulations have been significantly strengthened, encompassing natural disasters, fire safety, seismic resilience, tsunami prevention, containment vessel integrity, radioactive material spread prevention, and anti-terrorism measures. Fourteen reactors have already passed these new requirements and are operational as of January 2025. TEPCO has invested in upgrades, including a 15-meter tsunami wall designed to withstand a 7-8 meter tsunami.

The restart required authorization from the nuclear watchdog, the government, and the local government (Niigata Prefecture). Governor Hideo Hanazimi approved the restart of unit six in November 2023, with the assembly’s approval influenced by the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). However, local surveys indicate a close split in public opinion.

4. Public Perception & Economic Considerations

Interviews with local residents reveal mixed reactions. Mr. Iko Kusuma supports the restart due to its potential economic benefits, stating, “I do support its restart because realistically it can impact the local economy and industry.” However, he also acknowledges the risks. Miss Atsuko Murakabi expressed concerns about a lack of clear information regarding safety and potential impacts.

Nationwide, a December survey by the Mainichi Shimbun showed 48% support for nuclear restarts, compared to 21% opposition. This shift is attributed to rising electricity costs, the need for stable energy supply to support growing energy demands (like data centers for generative AI), and increasingly severe summers with rising heatstroke cases.

5. The Fukushima Treated Water Issue & Building Trust

The ongoing release of treated water from the Fukushima plant remains a sensitive issue. While TEPCO has increased transparency, inviting media and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) for inspections (including experts from Russia, China, and South Korea), protests occurred during the initial release in 2023, particularly from China and South Korea. A ban on Japanese seafood from China followed, demonstrating the economic implications. TEPCO has implemented a gag order on fishermen regarding media commentary.

TEPCO is actively working to address communication gaps, a key issue identified in the Fukushima disaster. They are providing detailed information on the treated water process, including measurements on their website, and collaborating with the IAEA. They have systems in place to alert the public if radiation levels increase.

6. Challenges Ahead: Spent Fuel Storage & Long-Term Sustainability

A significant challenge remains: the storage of spent nuclear fuel. Most fuel is currently stored on-site, and the government is seeking a final storage location. Three towns and villages have entered the initial screening phase for potential sites, with the aim of storing 300 meters underground. However, securing public approval is a major hurdle, given Japan’s earthquake-prone geography. The government plans to offer subsidies to communities that accept the storage facility.

Conclusion:

The restart of Kashiwazaki-Kariwa represents a complex balancing act for Japan. It’s a pragmatic response to energy security concerns, economic pressures, and climate goals, but it’s also fraught with public anxieties stemming from the Fukushima disaster. TEPCO’s success in regaining public trust, coupled with transparent management of the treated water issue and a viable solution for spent fuel storage, will be critical to the long-term sustainability of nuclear power in Japan. The decision is not simply about restarting a reactor; it’s about navigating the delicate interplay of memory, necessity, fear, and pragmatism.