How Russia’s Nuclear Deployment in Belarus Threatens NATO | WSJ Coordinates

Key Concepts

• Nuclear Non-Proliferation: Efforts to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons and weapons technology.
• Budapest Memorandum (1994): An agreement where Belarus, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan gave up their Soviet-era nuclear weapons in exchange for security assurances from Russia, the US, and the UK.
• Nuclear Sharing Agreement: A military arrangement where a nuclear-weapon state allows other countries to host and potentially use its nuclear weapons.
• Dual-Capable Arms: Military equipment that can be used for both conventional and nuclear missions.
• Non-Strategic Arms (Tactical Nuclear Weapons): Nuclear weapons designed for battlefield use, generally with lower yields and shorter ranges than strategic nuclear weapons.
• Kaliningrad Exclave: A Russian exclave located between Poland and Lithuania, where Russia already deploys warheads and ballistic missile systems.
• Nuclear Test Explosions: Detonations of nuclear devices, prohibited by the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT).
• Saber Rattling: Aggressive or threatening displays of military power.

Belarus's Shifting Nuclear Stance

The video discusses a European country, identified as Belarus, which is reportedly a non-nuclear state but has been participating in nuclear exercises over the last three years. This participation includes operating dual-capable arms, such as the SU-25 fighter jet, and providing Russia with a base for storing non-strategic nuclear arms. Moscow claims this deployment is part of a sharing agreement with Minsk, which could significantly alter the European balance of power and undermine global non-proliferation efforts.

Historical Context: The Budapest Memorandum

Belarus, formerly part of the Soviet Union, previously hosted both strategic and tactical nuclear weapons. Following the Soviet Union's collapse, Belarus, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan signed the 1994 Budapest Memorandum with Russia, the US, and the UK. Under this agreement, these former Soviet republics committed to relinquishing their nuclear arsenals in exchange for financial incentives and non-binding security assurances. Aleksandr Lukashenko, Belarus's long-standing President, was a signatory to this memorandum. However, three decades later, Lukashenko has stated that Russian nuclear weapons are returning to Belarus.

Evidence of Nuclear Infrastructure in Belarus

Analysts point to satellite imagery as evidence of preparations to host nuclear systems. Specific observations include:

• Nuclear Weapons Storage Site: A site believed to have been built by Russia over the past couple of years, featuring a bunker, support facilities, command and control systems, and a multi-layered security perimeter with an armed guard entrance. These are described as typical features of Russian nuclear weapons storage sites.
• Rail Station Construction: Recent construction of a rail station connected to the main rail system in Belarus. This is presumed to be for the transport of nuclear weapons and other systems to the storage site.
• Western Air Base: A Western air base housing a special type of aircraft that Belarus has showcased as being capable of a nuclear mission.

Russia's Justification and Comparison to NATO

Moscow justifies its deployment of nuclear arms in Belarus by stating it mirrors NATO's nuclear sharing agreements. In these NATO arrangements, the US deploys nuclear weapons in several member countries, which could potentially fire these arms if authorized by the US. Russia aims to replicate this setup.

However, experts note key differences:

• Scope: NATO's nuclear sharing is described as more established, broader, and involves a larger number of nuclear weapons compared to the Russian-Belarusian arrangement.
• Transparency: There is less clarity regarding the actual control handover procedures and practical implementation of the Russian-Belarusian arrangement.

Strategic Implications and European Security

Experts suggest that Russia has no immediate strategic need to share its nuclear arms with Belarus, as it already deploys warheads and ballistic missile systems in its Kaliningrad exclave. Nevertheless, the increase in the number of such systems in close proximity to the EU's borders, as highlighted by experts from the think tank CNA, would complicate NATO's defenses.

With France and the UK being the only European countries with independent nuclear programs, doubts about Washington's commitment to European security are prompting countries like Poland and Germany to seriously consider acquiring nuclear weapons.

Escalating Tensions and Nuclear Rhetoric

Russia's expansion of its nuclear footprint in Belarus coincides with heightened tensions and increased "saber rattling" between Washington and Moscow.

• New Weapon Systems: In October, President Putin announced successful tests of two new long-range nuclear-capable and nuclear-powered weapons. While acknowledging their destructive potential, some experts believe these developments might not significantly worry American nuclear planners, but are important for Russia to project strength domestically and internationally.
• Nuclear Testing: In November, President Putin ordered his top security officials to develop plans for potential nuclear weapons testing, following a promise by former President Trump to resume US tests. Both countries are signatories to the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, though the US has not ratified it, and Russia withdrew its ratification in 2023.

The Risk of a New Arms Race

The exchange between the US and Russia regarding the resumption of nuclear testing is viewed as deeply troubling. Experts warn that if the US resumes testing and Russia follows suit, other countries, including China, India, and Pakistan, would likely begin testing as well. This could lead to an escalation of nuclear tensions, the development of new and more advanced nuclear weapons, and a general increase in the "nuclear temperature" globally.

Conclusion: A Perilous Moment

Experts conclude that while the current threats from both sides are largely political signaling, the world is entering its most perilous moment since the end of the Cold War. This is due to more countries contemplating nuclear capabilities and rising tensions among major global powers.