How Pakistan Tackling Terrorism, A Fragile Economy & Extreme Weather | CNA Correspondent

Pakistan's Triple Crisis: Terrorism, Economy, and Climate Change

Key Concepts: Terrorism (TTP, BLA), Economic Instability (Foreign Investment, US Tariffs, Debt, IMF), Climate Change (Heatwaves, Floods, Droughts), Political Instability, Counterterrorism Strategies, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), Climate Vulnerability.

Terrorism in Pakistan

• Geographic Hotspots: Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (bordering Afghanistan) and Balochistan account for 96% of terror attacks and deaths in Pakistan in the past year.
• Impact on Civilians and Security Forces: 2024 was the deadliest year in a decade, with an average of seven lives lost daily. Police officers are particularly vulnerable due to lack of modern weaponry.
• Psychological Trauma: Survivors of terror attacks suffer from physical and mental scars, leading to social withdrawal and impaired basic functioning.
• Rise of TTP: After the withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan in 2021, cross-border terrorism surged, especially from the Pakistani Taliban (TTP). The TTP carried out 482 attacks last year, the highest ever recorded.
• Pakistan's Response: Pakistan is deporting undocumented and documented Afghan nationals, but experts warn this could lead to increased recruitment by militant groups. Over a million Afghans have been deported, including those born in Pakistan.
• Balochistan Insurgency: The Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) has intensified its insurgency. In March, the BLA hijacked a passenger train, resulting in over 300 hostages and 21 deaths.
• Counterterrorism Challenges: Analysts caution that military action alone cannot solve the problem. Deep political instability, institutional weakness, and lack of a cohesive national counterterrorism strategy are major obstacles.
• Political Instability: The ouster and arrest of Imran Khan in 2022 and 2023, respectively, and allegations of election rigging have fueled unrest.
• Regional Tensions: Pakistan faces accusations of fostering terror groups that attack India. A military escalation in May brought both countries to the brink of war.

Pakistan's Precarious Economy

• Migration Drivers: Political instability, economic stress, terrorism, and inflation are driving Pakistanis to migrate.
• Increased Migration Attempts: As of April, 2,111 Pakistanis traveled to Libya or Egypt, a gateway to Europe, more than double the number from the previous year.
• Foreign Investment Potential: Pakistan seeks foreign investments in sectors like minerals, particularly in the Reko Diq mine in Balochistan, one of the world's largest copper and gold deposits.
• Chinese and Saudi Investment: China's ADM group is investing $350 million in Pakistan's electric vehicle sector. Saudi fast-food giant Al Baik is expanding into Pakistan.
• Investment Conditions: Foreign direct investment (FDI) depends on stability and a business-friendly environment. Domestic investors parking capital abroad sends a negative signal.
• US Tariffs Threat: Concerns about additional US tariffs of 29% have led to a 40% drop in orders for textile factories. Textiles and apparel account for 80% of Pakistan's exports to the US.
• Energy Challenges: High electricity costs due to inefficient infrastructure and expensive fuel imports are a burden.
• Corruption: Corruption is endemic and affects governance, social transactions, and economic transactions.
• Gwadar Port Challenges: The Gwadar port, a flagship project of China's Belt and Road Initiative, has limited shipping and flight activity due to security issues and separatist accusations of resource exploitation.
• Debt and Inflation: High debt, inflation, and a weak currency plague Pakistan's economy.
• IMF Loan: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has provided a $7 billion loan, but analysts warn it's a temporary fix.
• Economic Fundamentals: Economic activity, enterprise creation, job creation, productivity, and skills development are crucial for economic recovery.

Climate Crisis in Pakistan

• Extreme Weather: Pakistan is on the front lines of a climate crisis, with intensifying extreme weather events.
• Heatwaves: Last summer, thousands were treated for heatstroke, and over 560 died. Temperatures have reached 7°C above normal, touching 50°C in some areas.
• Vulnerable Population: 40% of Pakistan's population is poor and disproportionately impacted by climate change.
• Food Production: Hot, dry weather is cutting down food production, leading to drought and food insecurity.
• Urbanization: As farming becomes unsustainable, more people are migrating to cities, putting pressure on urban areas. Deforestation and poor urban planning exacerbate heat island effects.
• Floods: Intense rainfall and floods are becoming more frequent due to glacial melts and unpredictable monsoons. The 2022 super flood submerged a third of the country, affecting 30 million people and costing $40 billion in damages.
• Early Warning Systems: The National Disaster Management Authority uses nearly 300 climate sensors to track rain and heat patterns and issue early warnings.
• Heat Action Plan: Officials have set up mobile centers at busy intersections to provide relief during heatwaves.
• Desalination Plant: A desalination plant in Gwadar, developed under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, provides desalinated water to the free trade zone.
• Future Projections: By 2050, average temperatures are projected to rise by 1.3°C to 1.5°C. Severe flooding is projected to affect 5 million more people, with extreme river floods likely between 2035 and 2044.

Conclusion

Pakistan faces a complex and interconnected set of challenges. Terrorism, economic instability, and climate change are all straining the country's resources and stability. Addressing these issues requires a multi-faceted approach that includes strengthening security, promoting economic growth, adapting to climate change, and addressing underlying political and social issues. Without comprehensive solutions, the prospect of peace and prosperity will remain elusive.