How one Taiwan comment reignited a fiery China-Japan feud - Asia Specific podcast, BBC World Service

Key Concepts

• Survival-Threatening Situation: A legal threshold in Japanese security law that, if met, allows for the deployment of Japan's Self-Defence Forces (SDF).
• Wolf Warrior Diplomacy: An aggressive and confrontational style of diplomacy employed by Chinese officials and state media.
• Yasukuni Shrine: A controversial shrine in Tokyo that honors Japan's war dead, including convicted war criminals, and is a frequent point of contention with China.
• Self-Defence Forces (SDF): Japan's military forces, constitutionally limited to defensive capabilities.
• Over-tourism: The phenomenon of a destination experiencing a high volume of tourists, leading to negative impacts on the local environment and community.

Japan-China Diplomatic Tensions Over Taiwan Comments

This episode of "Asia Specific" from the BBC World Service delves into the recent escalation of diplomatic tensions between Japan and China, triggered by remarks made by Japan's new Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, regarding Taiwan. The discussion features insights from BBC's China correspondent, Laura Bicker, in Beijing, and Japan correspondent, Shaimaa Khalil, in Tokyo.

Takaichi's Statement and its Legal Significance

The catalyst for the dispute was an "off the cuff remark," as some describe it, or a "deliberate" statement, as others suggest, made by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi in parliament. When questioned by an opposition lawmaker about what would constitute a "survival-threatening situation" for Japan in relation to Taiwan, Takaichi responded that "battleships and the use of force" concerning Taiwan could indeed create such a situation.

Shaimaa Khalil explains that "survival-threatening situation" is a crucial legal term within Japanese security law. It signifies an existential threat to Japan, at which point the country's Self-Defence Forces (SDF) are legally permitted to engage. This statement, therefore, is not mere rhetoric but carries significant legal weight regarding Japan's potential military response.

Beijing's Furious Reaction and Diplomatic Escalation

China's response was swift and severe. Beijing summoned the Japanese ambassador and accused Tokyo of "crossing a red line." Chinese officials warned of "serious consequences," and a senior diplomat posted a "chilling, violent message" online, which was later deleted but conveyed a clear aggressive tone.

Laura Bicker highlights that China has since escalated its actions by writing to the United Nations, summoning Japan's ambassador, suspending imports of Japanese seafood, issuing travel warnings to its citizens, and cancelling cultural exchanges. This marks the most serious diplomatic dispute between Japan and China since the 2010-2012 period.

Historical Context and Rising Anti-Japan Sentiment in China

The current hostility taps into a deep and bitter history between the two nations, encompassing wartime memories and territorial disputes. Bicker notes that China has been commemorating the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II, framing it as its victory over Imperial Japan. This has fueled a rise in anti-Japanese sentiment throughout the year, evident in state media and films depicting events like the Nanjing Massacre.

This existing sentiment, coupled with Takaichi's comments, has seen a resurgence of what is termed "wolf warrior diplomacy" – aggressive rhetoric from Chinese politicians and state media. This confrontational style, which had been somewhat subdued for the past five years, is now "well and truly back," as evidenced by saber-rattling from the military and former state media commentators calling Takaichi a "witch."

The Diplomatic Envoy's Visit and Symbolic Defiance

An attempt by a Japanese envoy to ease tensions proved unsuccessful. China viewed the envoy as not being of a high enough rank to address the perceived severity of the issue. Furthermore, a senior Chinese diplomat wore a "colorless suit with five buttons," a style associated with Chinese students in 1919 who protested against Japanese imperialism, interpreted as a sign of defiance. Japanese media noted the diplomat's hands-in-pockets posture compared to the Japanese official's bowing, a visual that went viral.

Japanese Public Reaction and Over-tourism Concerns

In contrast to China's strong reaction, the Japanese public's response has been more measured. Shaimaa Khalil observes that while the Japanese public is aware of the situation, the reaction is not as angry as in China. Many are questioning what was so outrageous about Takaichi's specific legal language. While Tokyo refused to retract the comment, Takaichi did promise to be more careful in her phrasing.

Politically, Takaichi's stance appears to benefit her with her domestic, conservative constituents. The discussion also touches upon the issue of over-tourism in Japan. With Chinese tourists making up almost a quarter of Japan's visitors, Beijing's travel advisory has led to cancellations, which some Japanese might view positively given prior concerns about over-tourism.

China's Strategic Messaging and Defense Spending Concerns

Laura Bicker suggests that Beijing's reaction is a "carefully calibrated message" not just for Tokyo but also for the US and its allies, emphasizing that Taiwan is a "red line." There is also a concern in Beijing about Japan's defense spending, particularly as the US encourages its allies to increase their military budgets. China may be worried about the "militarization of Asia," especially Japan, given their historical relationship. Takaichi's comments, therefore, are seen as a particular threat in this context.

Potential Future Escalation and Economic Interdependence

The situation remains tense, with China indicating further countermeasures if Takaichi does not retract her comments. This could extend beyond tour groups to individual travelers, with some young Japanese expressing concern about their parents' reactions and even planning to refrain from posting about their visits to Japan on social media.

Bicker posits that Takaichi's comments have been a "gift to Beijing," allowing them to warn Japan and signal concerns about a "China hawk" who is friendly to Taiwan and a frequent visitor to the Yasukuni Shrine. However, both sides are aware of their significant economic interdependence. China is Japan's largest trading partner, with trillions of yen in trade and major Japanese companies like Nissan, Honda, and Toyota having substantial operations in China. This crucial relationship is something both nations will want to maintain.

Shifting Public Opinion in Japan and US Support

The current tensions, coupled with China's reaction, have garnered support for Japan from the United States. Notably, a survey indicates that approximately 45% of the Japanese public now supports the use of the Self-Defence Force in the event of a Taiwan invasion. This is a significant shift, as the public has historically been reluctant to increase defense spending or alter the pacifist constitution. The Japanese public is increasingly aware of the "hostile" and "unstable" nature of the current Asia-Pacific region, necessitating a stronger defense posture.

Potential Triggers for Further Escalation

Analysts suggest that a significant escalation could occur if China were to ban exports of rare earths to Japan again, a move that could impact existing deals with the United States. However, China also faces internal challenges, as its aggressive stance might alienate other countries it seeks to engage with as a global leader. The US ambassador to Tokyo's comment, "the mask has slipped," highlights this concern.

The most significant trigger for a severe escalation would be a visit by Prime Minister Takaichi to the Yasukuni Shrine. Such a visit would be seen as a conscious move to anger Beijing and would make it "very difficult for these two countries to walk back" from the diplomatic spat, transforming it into something "huge and concrete." While Takaichi has been careful not to commit to or rule out such a visit, it remains a critical point to watch.

Conclusion

The current diplomatic spat between Japan and China, ignited by Prime Minister Takaichi's comments on Taiwan, highlights the deep-seated historical animosities and contemporary geopolitical anxieties in the region. While China has reacted with strong diplomatic and economic measures, Japan's public response has been more reserved, with a growing awareness of regional security needs. The economic interdependence between the two nations acts as a moderating factor, but the potential for further escalation, particularly concerning Taiwan and symbolic gestures like visits to the Yasukuni Shrine, remains high. The situation underscores the complex dynamics of power, history, and national interest in the Asia-Pacific.