How one man changed the China, Taiwan conflict forever | Foreign Correspondent Archives

Key Concepts

• Cross-Strait Relations: The complex and often tense relationship between mainland China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China).
• Taiwan's National Identity: The evolving self-perception of Taiwanese people, increasingly distinguishing themselves from mainland Chinese.
• Democratic Progressive Party (DPP): Taiwan's pro-independence political party, led by Chen Shui-bian at the time of the video.
• Kuomintang (KMT): Taiwan's traditional nationalist party, which fled to Taiwan after the Chinese Civil War and historically advocated for eventual reunification with the mainland.
• Chen Shui-bian: Taiwan's president and commander-in-chief, a key figure in the video, known for his pro-independence stance and democratic activism.
• One-China Policy: The diplomatic stance that there is only one sovereign state under the name "China," leading to a dilemma for countries recognizing either Beijing or Taipei.
• Diplomatic Recognition: The formal acknowledgment of a state's government by other states, a critical issue for Taiwan's international standing.
• Checkbook Diplomacy: The practice of using financial aid or investment to gain diplomatic recognition or influence from other countries.
• Martial Law: Temporary imposition of military rule over civilian population, historically used by the KMT in Taiwan.
• Shooting Incident (2004): A controversial event where President Chen Shui-bian was allegedly shot the day before the 2004 presidential election, leading to accusations of staging.
• Status Quo (Taiwan Strait): The current state of affairs where Taiwan is de facto independent but not formally recognized as such by most countries, and mainland China maintains its claim over Taiwan.
• ANZUS Treaty: A security treaty between Australia, New Zealand, and the United States, whose applicability to a conflict over Taiwan was questioned by Australia.

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Introduction: A Troubled New Year in Taiwan

The video opens during Chinese New Year in Taiwan, marking the end of the "Year of the Monkey," a period characterized by significant challenges for the island. These troubles included renewed military threats from mainland China, an assassination attempt on the pro-independence president, and accusations that the president staged the shooting to secure re-election. As Taiwan entered the "Year of the Rooster," there was widespread fear that cross-strait tensions could escalate. An unnamed expert warned, "If there's an accident or there's a miscalculation on the side of Beijing, then a disaster will take place." The expert further stated, "As long as Beijing leadership feels it is compelled to do so... it feels that uh Taiwan independence is a certainty... I have no doubt that Beijing would resort to use of force." This sets the stage for the precarious balance between Taiwan and mainland China.

President Chen Shui-bian: Taiwan's Underdog Leader

The central figure in this geopolitical drama is Taiwan's President and Commander-in-Chief, Chen Shui-bian, whom the video identifies as "China's public enemy number one." Chen is portrayed as a democrat who steadfastly refuses to accept the Communist Party's territorial claims over Taiwan. His background is that of a "classic underdog of Asian politics": a dissident who was jailed for his beliefs, whose wife was paralyzed in what some claim was a politically motivated attack. Following an assassination attempt the previous year, he was under tight security.

The video traces Chen's humble origins, born into a poor family of tenant farmers in the southern county of Tainan. Unlike the KMT nationalists who fled to Taiwan after the communist revolution, Chen's family, like most of his neighbors, had lived on the island for centuries, highlighting his deep roots in Taiwanese society. His popularity is evident as over 25,000 villagers turned out to see him, jostling for a glimpse and receiving traditional red envelopes (over 20,000 distributed) for good luck during Chinese New Year.

Evolving Taiwanese Identity and Democratic Transition

While Taiwan maintains a "quintessentially Chinese culture," its political landscape has diverged significantly from the communist-ruled mainland. A decade prior to the video's production, Taiwan embraced democracy, leading to a profound shift in national identity. Data presented indicates that "only one in 10 people call themselves Chinese," with "nearly half say they're first and foremost Taiwanese." Students Funuin Yay and Shu Ying Co from Taipei's Changi University articulate this sentiment, stating, "We don't have really direct connection with mainland China... it's like a foreign country."

Historically, Taiwan has been "effectively independent" since Chiang Kai-shek and the KMT government fled to the island in 1949 after the communist victory on the mainland. Chiang treated Taiwan as a temporary "staging post" to rebuild his army and reconquer the mainland, imposing strict martial law under the KMT and ruthlessly suppressing calls for democracy and Taiwanese independence.

By the 1980s, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) emerged, openly advocating for both democracy and Taiwanese independence. Chen Shui-bian was an early activist, enduring eight months in prison before resuming his campaign as the KMT gradually eased its one-party rule. His political ascent culminated in becoming Mayor of Taipei in 1994 and, to the KMT's dismay, President in 2000. However, the constant "fear of invasion" compelled the DPP under Chen to "tone down its pro-independence rhetoric."

Cross-Strait Military Tensions and International Alliances

The video highlights the persistent military threat from mainland China. KMT Chairman of the Mainland Affairs Council, Such Chi, expressed skepticism about Chen's shifting stance on independence, noting, "he turned left and right... he won't do it 15 times. He said he would do it 20 times... nobody knows where he really stands." The Chinese military, since Chen's rise to power, has "stepped up its rhetoric," explicitly stating it would attack if Taiwan moved towards a formal declaration of independence. A rare media visit to a Chinese military base three years prior showcased their hardware and a senior commander's "willingness to use it."

Taiwan, despite showcasing its own military strength, is "hopelessly outgunned." Its primary guarantor against attack remains the United States. However, even America's staunch Pacific ally, Australia, has indicated it would not be obliged to defend Taiwan. During a visit to Beijing, Australian Foreign Minister Alexander Downer clarified that the "core defense treaty with the US did not apply to Taiwan," stating, "some other um military activity elsewhere in the world... doesn't automatically invoke the Anzis treaty." Taiwan perceived these comments as Australia "cowtowing to the communists."

The Diplomatic Battle for Recognition

Taiwan and China are engaged in an intense diplomatic struggle. President Chen's travels illustrate Taiwan's dwindling international recognition. His journey to the Solomon Islands, one of only 25 countries maintaining formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan, underscored Taiwan's diplomatic isolation since major powers switched recognition to mainland China in the 1970s. Taiwan has become a "diplomatic outcast," with its leaders often unable to enter most countries.

Small, weak nations recognize Taiwan primarily "in return for aid," a practice known as "checkbook diplomacy." China actively works to peel away these remaining allies. Vanuatu, a neighbor of the Solomons, briefly switched recognition to Taiwan before reverting to mainland China "amid rumored deals of giant cash payments." While long-term aid projects, like a rice-growing scheme, maintain ties with the Solomons, Prime Minister Sir Allan Kemakeza admitted his country was also being courted by Beijing, acknowledging a potential future switch in recognition.

Chen's efforts to thwart China's diplomatic offensive included a state visit to Palau, a nation of less than 20,000 people. He attended President Tommy Remengesau's inauguration, an event where other world leaders, including George W. Bush, could only send regrets. To cement relations, Chen even donned a wet suit to promote Taiwanese tourism, despite being unable to swim, taking his "first ever plunge" with a kickboard and security guards. Domestically, many Taiwanese viewed these foreign visits as "an embarrassing sign of how desperate their nation has become," with one citizen lamenting, "Man is so big. We are so small... We only have very slow voice."

Domestic Political Division and the 2004 Shooting Incident

Chen's international efforts were further undermined by the KMT, which sought to deny his legitimacy as Taiwan's leader. The KMT openly stated, "We simply believe that the presidency is illegitimate and the Gulf unfortunately is very deep." This division split the Taiwanese population "roughly into half half. One half believe he's a crook. The other half believe he's a president."

The most controversial incident contributing to this division was a "mysterious shooting on the day before last year's elections." Chen, trailing in the polls, was allegedly fired upon during his motorcade. Rushed to the hospital, his office later released graphic photos of his wounds. The next day, an "outraged public swung their support behind him," re-electing him with a "razor thin majority of just 29,000 votes." The KMT vehemently claimed they had been "robbed," accusing Chen of staging the shooting. One KMT critic asserted, "I think he lied and he staged the uh the shooting stand... The whole thing was most likely faked." The KMT refused to accept defeat, leading to street protests demanding new elections. This deep national division raised concerns about Taiwan's ability to defend itself against a PRC attack, as "one half of the population will blame the other."

Economic Interdependence and the Hope for Peace

Despite the political and military tensions, "one thing both sides of the Taiwan Strait have in common" is business. Taiwanese entrepreneurs have invested "billions of dollars in China's booming economy." This economic interdependence fosters a hope that "common sense will prevail on both sides." Many believe that "peace is the only solution," and that "money is more important" than politics.

China has "much to lose from any military attack," and while many Taiwanese see themselves as a sovereign country, "few want to risk invasion for the sake of formally declaring independence." This mutual interest in stability maintains a "comfortable, if sometimes uneasy, status quo." As Chinese around the world celebrate the Year of the Rooster, the hope is that this delicate balance will endure.

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Conclusion: Maintaining an Uneasy Status Quo

The video paints a detailed picture of Taiwan at a critical juncture, grappling with its national identity, navigating complex cross-strait relations, and struggling for international recognition. President Chen Shui-bian, a symbol of Taiwan's democratic aspirations, faces immense pressure from mainland China's military threats and diplomatic isolation, compounded by deep domestic political divisions stemming from the controversial 2004 shooting incident. Despite these challenges, a strong economic bond with mainland China and a shared desire to avoid conflict underpin an "uneasy status quo." The core takeaway is that while Taiwan increasingly asserts its distinct identity, the practical realities of military disparity and economic interdependence compel both sides to cautiously maintain the current, albeit fragile, peace, with neither side willing to risk a full-scale confrontation for the sake of formal independence or reunification.