How much influence does the US actually have on Israel? | DW News

Key Concepts

• Ceasefire Violations: Accusations and actions by both Israel and Hamas testing the fragility of the US-brokered truce.
• Hostage Release: The return of all living Israeli hostages from Gaza as a factor influencing the continuation of hostilities.
• Hamas's Role in Gaza: The debate over Hamas retaining control and its relevance as a political and military actor in Gaza.
• US Pressure on Israel: The critical role of the Trump administration in influencing Israel's adherence to the ceasefire.
• Mediator Roles: The involvement of regional players like Turkey, Egypt, and Qatar in influencing Hamas and facilitating the ceasefire.
• Vague Ceasefire Terms: Unaddressed details and timing/sequencing issues in the ceasefire agreement leading to practical problems.
• Far-Right Ideology: The influence of hardline figures within Netanyahu's government advocating for Hamas's complete eradication.
• Fragile Ceasefire: The precarious nature of the current truce, with a high possibility of collapse.

Ceasefire Tested Amidst Violations

Israel has stated it has resumed enforcing a fragile ceasefire with Hamas following severe testing on Sunday. This occurred after Israel conducted numerous strikes on Hamas targets across Gaza, citing the deaths of two Israeli soldiers in attacks attributed to Hamas militants. Hamas has denied involvement in these specific attacks. Health officials in Gaza reported over 40 fatalities resulting from Israeli airstrikes that spanned from Rafa in the south to Jabalia in northern Gaza.

Expert Analysis on Ceasefire Fragility

Georgia Cafiro, CEO and founder of Gulf State Analytics, expressed a lack of surprise regarding the recent developments. He noted that following the return of all remaining living Israeli hostages, Israeli figures like Ben Gvir indicated a resumption of war on Gaza. Cafiro highlighted that many analysts had expressed significant concerns prior to the ceasefire's implementation, viewing it primarily as a mechanism to secure the hostages' release rather than a move towards a lasting peace. The recent bloodshed in Gaza, he argued, validates these concerns.

The Crucial Role of US Pressure

Cafiro emphasized that the extent to which the Trump administration exerts pressure on Israel for restraint and adherence to the ceasefire is the most significant variable in the current equation.

Stalemate on Hamas's Control in Gaza

A key point of contention is the differing stances on Hamas's future role in Gaza. Israel has declared it will not permit Hamas to retake control, while Hamas insists on maintaining that control to fulfill its ceasefire obligations. Cafiro finds it difficult to envision Israel accepting an outcome where Hamas remains a powerful or even relevant actor. He attributes this to the influence of far-right ideologues surrounding Netanyahu, who advocate for the complete eradication of Hamas as a political and military entity.

Vague Ceasefire Terms and Their Consequences

A significant problem with the ceasefire deal, as pointed out by Cafiro, is the presence of numerous vague aspects and unaddressed details. Hamas did not agree to all demands from the US and Israel. Specifically, while Hamas indicated a willingness to disarm, this was contingent on a later stage, after an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. The unresolved questions regarding the timing and sequencing of these actions have proven problematic in practice.

The US as a Decisive Factor

Despite the complexities, Cafiro reiterated that if the United States mandates Israel to accept a certain status quo, Israel, due to its dependence on Washington, would likely comply. Therefore, he stressed that all attention should be focused on the Trump administration's actions.

The Role of Regional Mediators

Beyond the US, other mediators, including US allied countries like Turkey, Egypt, and Qatar, can play a crucial role. These nations possess varying degrees of influence over Hamas. As demonstrated earlier in the month, these regional players leveraged their influence to secure Hamas's agreement to what was termed Trump's "peace initiative" (with 20 points) or at least to advance to phase one. Cafiro believes that if the US is committed to pressuring Israel to uphold the ceasefire and facilitate progress towards subsequent phases, these regional states are essential partners in engaging with Hamas.

Uncertainty and the Risk of Ceasefire Collapse

However, Cafiro cautioned that the possibility of the ceasefire completely falling apart at any moment cannot be discounted. He highlighted the numerous unknown variables between the current point and the potential achievement of phase two, stating that "one unknown variable meets the other at this point." There is no guarantee that this fragile ceasefire will endure.