How Morocco's Western Sahara gamble paid off | Mapped Out

Key Concepts

• Western Sahara: A disputed territory claimed by both Morocco and the Polisario Front.
• Polisario Front: A liberation movement seeking independence for Western Sahara.
• Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (SADR): The state proclaimed by the Polisario Front.
• The Berm: A 2700-km-long sand wall built by Morocco, heavily mined and guarded, dividing Western Sahara.
• Green March: A 1975 event where Morocco sent civilians into Western Sahara to assert its claim.
• Phosphate Diplomacy: Morocco's strategy of using its phosphate reserves to build relationships and gain support from African countries.
• African Union (AU): An intergovernmental organization of African states.
• Atlantic Initiative: A Moroccan project to provide landlocked African countries with access to the Atlantic Ocean via Moroccan ports.
• Quid Pro Quo: A favor or advantage granted in return for something.
• Normalization with Israel: The establishment of diplomatic ties between Morocco and Israel.
• African Lion: A joint military exercise co-led by Morocco and the US.

Morocco's Strategic Rise and the Western Sahara Dispute

Morocco is strategically positioning itself as a significant player on the global stage, with its ambitions extending to co-hosting the 2030 World Cup and constructing the world's largest football stadium. This rise is intrinsically linked to its long-standing claim over Western Sahara, a territory at the heart of one of Africa's most protracted territorial disputes. The core of Morocco's foreign policy and diplomatic efforts is to secure international recognition of its sovereignty over Western Sahara.

Historical Context of the Western Sahara Conflict

Western Sahara was formerly a Spanish colony and has historically been inhabited by the Sahrawi people. In 1973, the Polisario Front was established to advocate for Sahrawi independence. Morocco, however, asserted historical ties and initiated the "Green March" in 1975, mobilizing hundreds of thousands of civilians to cross into the territory and claim it as Moroccan. Spain subsequently withdrew, ceding control to Morocco and Mauritania. Mauritania later withdrew, leaving Morocco in de facto control of most of the territory.

Algeria emerged as a key supporter of the Sahrawis and the Polisario Front, providing military aid. This led to a 16-year war between Morocco and the Polisario Front. Many Sahrawis were displaced and now reside in refugee camps around Tindouf, Algeria, where the Polisario Front's headquarters are located.

Morocco's Control and the "Berm"

To solidify its control, Morocco constructed "the Berm," a 2700-kilometer-long sand wall that is heavily mined and guarded by over 100,000 Moroccan soldiers. This wall divides Western Sahara, with Morocco occupying the larger portion and the Polisario Front controlling the remainder.

International Stance and Morocco's Diplomatic Maneuvers

Historically, most countries have not recognized Morocco's claims over Western Sahara. The United Nations has consistently advocated for a referendum to determine the territory's future, which has yet to materialize. Furthermore, some nations have recognized the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (SADR), proclaimed by the Polisario Front. This led to Morocco's withdrawal from the African Union for a significant period, as the SADR was admitted as a member state.

King Mohammed VI's Strategy: Phosphate Diplomacy and African Union Re-entry

Under King Mohammed VI, Western Sahara has become the paramount issue driving Morocco's global economic and political interactions. The King's strategy initially focused on garnering support from other African nations. Morocco, possessing significant phosphate reserves crucial for global agriculture, leveraged this resource through "phosphate diplomacy." OCP, Morocco's state-owned phosphate company, operates the world's largest phosphate mine in Bou Craa, located in Western Sahara. Morocco offered not only phosphate but also long-term cooperation, including farmer training and investments in local fertilizer production. This "win-win" approach, as described by Imru Al Qays Talha Jebril, a researcher and policy advisor, proved effective.

This diplomatic offensive culminated in Morocco's return to the African Union after a 33-year absence, a move aimed at influencing the organization's stance on Western Sahara.

US Recognition and the Israel Normalization Deal

A pivotal moment in Morocco's strategy occurred in 2020 when the United States, under President Donald Trump, recognized Morocco's sovereignty over Western Sahara. This recognition was part of a broader deal that saw Morocco normalize diplomatic ties with Israel. Morocco saw an opportunity to leverage Trump's desire for Arab nations to move closer to Israel, offering recognition of Israel in exchange for US recognition of its claim over Western Sahara. Jared Kushner, Trump's son-in-law, played a role in brokering this agreement.

Military Partnerships and Regional Ambitions

The normalization with Israel has been controversial within Morocco, particularly given public sentiment regarding the conflict in Gaza. However, the Moroccan government has prioritized maintaining these ties, which have facilitated access to advanced Israeli military technology, including kamikaze drones. This military buildup is partly driven by Morocco's desire to compete with its regional rival, Algeria, which possesses a larger military. The joint military exercise "African Lion," co-led by Morocco and the US, further signifies their close partnership and Morocco's ambition to be a continental leader.

"Facts on the Ground" and the Atlantic Initiative

Morocco has actively encouraged its citizens to relocate to Western Sahara through state subsidies and investments, aiming to alter the demographic landscape. Human rights groups report repression of those who question Moroccan sovereignty.

The "Atlantic Initiative" is another key project, designed to provide landlocked African countries with access to the Atlantic Ocean through Moroccan ports, particularly in Dakhla. This initiative serves to showcase Dakhla as part of Morocco and to extend Morocco's influence, especially in the wake of recent coups in some of the participating African nations.

French Recognition and European Support

Morocco also exerted pressure on France, its former colonial power, to recognize its claim over Western Sahara. This pressure, applied through various means including blocking trade talks and investments, led to France officially recognizing "Moroccan sovereignty" over the territory. This recognition was significant due to France's historical ties and deep economic interests in Morocco. The French recognition has made it easier for other countries to follow suit. The UK and Spain have also backed Morocco's position.

Conclusion: A Shift in the Geopolitical Landscape

Morocco's persistent strategy of creating "facts on the ground" and engaging in strategic deal-making has yielded significant diplomatic gains. The UN Security Council now supports a path towards Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara, albeit with a degree of autonomy for the Sahrawis, making a fully independent Sahrawi state appear unlikely in the current geopolitical climate. Morocco has effectively made it challenging for the Polisario Front to achieve its goal of sovereignty.