How long can Russia keep up its ever-larger attacks on Ukraine? | DW News

Key Concepts:

• Aerial assault on Ukraine
• Sanctions against Russia (US, EU)
• US-Russia relations under President Trump
• Russia's economic situation
• Transatlantic cooperation on sanctions
• Ukrainian air defenses
• Diplomatic stalemate

Russia's Aerial Assault and Sustainability:

• Russia launched its biggest aerial assault on Ukraine since the war began, using hundreds of drones and missiles.
• The attacks resulted in casualties and targeted key government buildings in Kiev.
• Michael Kimage (Kennan Institute) states that Russia can sustain these attacks "indefinitely" because:
  • The attacks are "not particularly expensive" for Russia.
  • Russia has been mass-producing drones and missiles for "months and months, really for years."
  • Russia is receiving assistance from China and other countries in the production of these materials.
  • The effects of the attacks are "quite devastating."

Trump's Threats of Sanctions and Putin's Perspective:

• President Trump threatened a second stage of sanctions against Moscow.
• Kimage doubts Putin will take Trump's threats seriously, citing Trump's reluctance to "escalate in actuality or to impose costs on Russia in actuality" since taking office.
• Trump has issued similar threats and ultimatums in the past but has "never followed through."
• Kimage's "guess" is that Putin expects Trump not to respond.

Joint US-EU Sanctions and Their Impact:

• Existing transatlantic sanctions have been in place since the beginning of the war in February 2022.
• Joint US-EU sanctions could build upon existing measures and have a "significant effect."
• Russia's economy has been in a "very negative cycle" for the last couple of months and is expected to worsen in the short to medium term.
• Sanctions "matter" overall, but they are not expected to change Putin's decisions on actions like "how he wreaks havoc in Ukraine."
• Increased cooperation between the US and Europe will make sanctions more effective.

Breaking the Diplomatic Stalemate:

• Trump needs to adopt a "more coherent position" to break the diplomatic stalemate.
• Kimage suggests Trump should work more closely with European allies and partners on:
  • Sanctions
  • Ukrainian air defenses
  • Both
• Trump needs to issue a "credible set of threats" to Russia, indicating consequences for continued escalation.
• The path to dealing with the situation is not "particularly complicated," but Trump has been "reluctant" to take it.

Conclusion:

The interview highlights the ongoing escalation of the conflict in Ukraine, Russia's capacity to sustain attacks, and the complexities of US-Russia relations under President Trump. The effectiveness of sanctions is discussed, emphasizing the importance of transatlantic cooperation. The need for a more coherent and assertive US policy, including credible threats and collaboration with allies, is underscored as a means to break the diplomatic stalemate.