How Israeli strikes are shaping public sentiment in Iran | DW News

Key Concepts:

• Israeli strikes on Iranian infrastructure (oil, gas, military, nuclear)
• Economic pressure on Iran to force nuclear concessions or regime change
• Iranian public opinion: Disgruntled vs. nationalistic views
• Rally-around-the-flag effect in Iran during foreign attacks
• Impact of infrastructure attacks on daily life

1. Israeli Strikes on Iranian Infrastructure

• Iran reports a partial halt in gas production at the world's largest gas field due to an Israeli strike.
• Iranian media shows footage of a fire at the plant, attributing it to an Israeli drone strike causing a strong explosion.
• This appears to be Israel's first attack on Iran's oil and gas industry.
• The Israeli army claims it operates freely in Iranian airspace, from western Iran to Tehran.
• Israel also claims to have struck an underground missile facility in western Iran.

2. Israel's Goals: Economic Pressure and Regime Change

• Dr. Burajeri states that oil and gas account for 40-50% of Iranian state revenues.
• Israel aims to pressure Iran by attacking oil installations, military sites, airports, and nuclear sites.
• Minimalist goal: Force Iran to make major concessions on its nuclear program.
• Maximalist goal: Incite the Iranian public to rise up against the state, leading to regime change.

3. Impact of Attacks on the Iranian Regime

• Replacing experienced military commanders (veterans of the Iran-Iraq war) is difficult.
• Dr. Burajeri cautions against exaggerating the impact, stating "Iran is not a one bullet state."
• Assassinating nuclear scientists causes setbacks, but the knowledge isn't necessarily lost.
• Nuclear development is a "team sport," so eliminating individuals doesn't pose an existential threat.

4. Iranian Public Opinion: Divided Views

• Two views exist in Iran:
  • Disgruntled Iranians who are unhappy with the state and initially supported the Israeli attacks.
  • Iranians who view the attacks as an insult to national sovereignty and pride.
• The "rally-around-the-flag" phenomenon is likely, especially as attacks target critical infrastructure.
• Attacks on oil, water, and electrical grids could significantly impact daily life and potentially unify the population against Israel.

5. Street Interviews in Tehran

• Interviewees express defiance, stating, "We will not stay silent. We are 80 million Iranians...we will not compromise our dignity."
• They express opposition to negotiations with someone who uses them militarily against Iran.
• One interviewee states, "If someone doesn't want us to exist in the world, we shouldn't be sitting at the table to talk to them."

6. Synthesis/Conclusion

The Israeli strikes on Iranian infrastructure aim to exert economic pressure, potentially forcing nuclear concessions or even regime change. While the attacks have caused damage and setbacks, the Iranian regime is resilient. Public opinion is divided, with some initially supporting the attacks due to discontent, while others view them as a violation of national sovereignty. The potential for a "rally-around-the-flag" effect is high, especially if attacks disrupt daily life by targeting critical infrastructure. The long-term consequences of these actions remain uncertain.