How is Turkey expanding its sphere of influence? | Mapped Out

Key Concepts:

• Strategic Autonomy: Turkey's approach to foreign policy, aiming for independent decision-making while maintaining ties with Western institutions.
• Middle Power: Turkey's self-perception as a significant regional actor with considerable influence.
• Balancing Actor: Turkey's role in mediating and maintaining equilibrium between various regional interests.
• Sphere of Influence: The geographical area over which Turkey seeks to exert its political, economic, and cultural influence.
• Multipolarity: A global system where power is distributed among multiple centers, rather than being dominated by a single superpower.

1. Turkey's Geopolitical Position and Strategic Autonomy

• Turkey is situated at the crossroads of Europe, Asia, and Africa, giving it a unique geopolitical advantage.
• Mustafa Aydın (Professor, Kadir Has University) notes that Turkey is increasingly seen as a "balancing actor" in the region.
• Under President Erdoğan and the AKP, Turkey has adopted a foreign policy of "strategic autonomy," as described by Hürcan Aslı Aksoy (Head of the Center for Applied Turkey Studies).
• Turkey aims to have a "big room of maneuver" in its foreign policy, allowing it to pursue its interests independently.
• Example: Turkey provides weapons to Ukraine while refusing to join sanctions against Russia, and it is a member of NATO while also seeking to join BRICS.
• Quote: Erdoğan stated, "We neither turn our backs on the East for the West, nor neglect the West for the East."

2. Turkey's Strengths and Resources

• Turkey has a large, young population of 85 million.
• It possesses a strong industrial base.
• It has the second-largest army in NATO, with over 350,000 active personnel.

3. Turkey's Involvement in Regional Conflicts and Power Dynamics

• Syria: Turkey and Iran have competed for influence, backing opposing groups in the Syrian civil war. Turkey supported rebels against Assad, while Iran and Russia supported Assad.
• In late 2024, Turkish-backed rebels seized the opportunity and launched an offensive — finally toppling Assad's regime.
• Turkey reportedly wants to take over two strategic airfields abandoned by Russian and Iranian forces.
• Israel has bombed these airfields, including Tiyas, to limit Turkey's influence.
• Israel: Turkey and Israel are increasingly at odds, especially over the war in Gaza.
• Iran: Turkey prioritizes stability in its relations with Iran, despite historical competition.
• Quote: "Turks and Iranians, they traditionally and historically had always this competition but also neighborly relations, it didn't change. So, Turkey will be not very happy with a completely destroyed Iran either."

4. Economic Challenges and Alignment with Gulf Countries

• Turkey's economy has faced challenges, including extreme inflation.
• Turkey lacks the capital to fund reconstruction efforts in Syria.
• To address these financial limitations, Turkey is aligning itself with wealthy Gulf countries like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar.
• Turkey and Qatar have a joint military base in Doha.

5. Turkey's Growing Influence in Africa

• Turkey has significantly expanded its diplomatic presence in Africa, increasing its embassies from 12 to over 36.
• Turkish Airlines has expanded its routes to African destinations, boosting trade and investment.
• Turkey provides development and humanitarian aid, as well as infrastructure and logistic development.
• Turkish companies specialize in building airports and other infrastructure in Africa.
• Turkey is building mosques across the continent.
• Turkey is increasing military and security cooperation with African countries.
• Somalia: Turkey has a strong relationship with Somalia, where it opened a military base in Mogadishu in 2017, training Somali troops. Turkey has reportedly two thousand soldiers in Somalia.
• Turkey is helping Somalia build its navy and protect its coastline.
• Turkey has started searching for oil and gas in Somali waters.
• Sudan: Turkey has leased the island of Suakin, planning to build new maritime infrastructure.
• Turkey's military hardware, such as Bayraktar drones, is selling well in Africa due to its lower cost and fewer conditions compared to Western alternatives.
• Turkey emphasizes its lack of colonial past and promotes "African solutions to African problems."

6. Turkey's Relations in the South Caucasus and Central Asia

• South Caucasus: Turkey has a special partnership with Azerbaijan, often described as "one nation, two states." Turkish weapons and support helped Azerbaijan win its conflict with Armenia.
• Central Asia: Turkey is forging closer ties with Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan, countries with Turkic ethnic groups and languages.
• Turkey is boosting military cooperation, strengthening cultural ties, and fostering economic links in Central Asia.
• Turkey is careful not to alienate Russia, which may realign the balances in the region after the war in Ukraine.

7. Balancing Act and Limitations

• Turkey's growing importance may explain why Western allies are largely turning a blind eye to democratic backsliding.
• Turkey still relies on Western allies economically and militarily.
• Turkey is navigating a "transitioning time" in a multipolar world.
• Quote: "Turkey is a NATO member, but it's not very trusted. It's kind of navigating in this, you know, transitioning time because we talk about multipolarity. But we do not have very clear picture yet for the geopolitics."
• There is a fine line between cooperation and competition, and Turkey is managing to balance both.

8. Conclusion

Turkey is strategically positioned to expand its influence as a middle power, leveraging its unique geography, military strength, and economic ties. It is actively involved in regional conflicts, balancing relationships with various actors, and expanding its presence in Africa and Central Asia. However, Turkey faces economic challenges and must carefully navigate its relationships with both Western allies and regional powers to avoid isolation. The key to Turkey's success lies in its ability to balance cooperation and competition while pursuing its strategic autonomy.