How is ASEAN impacted by the US-China trade war? | DW News

Key Concepts

• Gula Lumpur Peace Accords: A peace agreement between Cambodia and Thailand aimed at ceasing hostilities and fostering good neighborly relations.
• ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations): A regional organization of ten Southeast Asian states.
• ASEAN Centrality: The principle that ASEAN should be at the center of regional security and economic architecture, maintaining neutrality amidst major power rivalries.
• Trade War: Economic conflict characterized by the imposition of tariffs and other trade barriers between countries, specifically between the US and China in this context.
• Tariffs: Taxes imposed on imported goods.
• Supply Chain Resilience: The ability of a supply chain to withstand and recover from disruptions.
• Bilateral Trade Agreements: Trade pacts negotiated and signed between two countries.
• International Court of Justice (ICJ): The principal judicial organ of the United Nations, responsible for settling legal disputes between states.
• Paris Peace Accord: A peace treaty signed in 1991 by 18 countries, including the US, concerning Cambodia.
• Economic Pressure: The use of economic leverage, such as tariffs, to influence the behavior of other countries.

Gula Lumpur Peace Accords and Regional Stability

The video discusses the signing of the "Gula Lumpur Peace Accords" between Cambodia and Thailand, a deal brokered with the involvement of US President Donald Trump. This accord aims to cease all hostilities and build good neighborly relationships, building upon a prior truce.

• Key Provisions: The pact requires both sides to maintain dialogue, withdraw heavy weapons from border areas, and return captured soldiers.
• Territorial Dispute: The agreement does not resolve the territorial dispute over holy sites on the shared border, which previously led to deadly clashes in July, resulting in 40 deaths and displacing hundreds of thousands.
• Nobel Peace Prize Nomination: Reflecting gratitude for the mediation, President Donald J. Trump was nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize by Cambodian representatives.

Trade Deals as a Lever for Peace and Economic Relations

A significant lever used by President Trump to facilitate the truce was the prospect of trade deals with the US. This strategy was realized through the signing of bilateral trade agreements with Cambodia and Thailand.

• ASEAN Trade Growth: Trade with the US is crucial for the ten ASEAN nations. ASEAN's exports to the US saw substantial growth, increasing from $142 billion in Trump's first term to $312 billion in the previous year.
• Malaysia Trade Agreement: A trade deal inked with Malaysia, similar to the one with Thailand, settles tariffs on most of their exports to the US at 19% and includes access to critical minerals.
• Strategic Importance of Critical Minerals: The US is actively seeking to reduce its dependence on rare earth elements from China, making export-oriented Southeast Asian countries attractive partners. These countries are leveraging trade frictions between superpowers to improve their economic ties with the US.

Southeast Asian Countries' Relationship with the US

Dr. Shafia F. Muibat from the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Indonesia highlights the critical importance of ties with the US for ASEAN members, serving economic, security, and diplomatic functions.

• Economic Significance: This includes securing market access and investment, enhancing supply chain resilience, and mitigating the impact of trade wars.
• Security and Diplomatic Leverage: The US plays a vital role in regional security and diplomacy.
• Transactional Nature of Relations: The current US administration's approach is perceived as highly transactional, driven by economic bargaining and securing tangible wins like bilateral trade deals.
• ASEAN Centrality vs. US Influence: While ASEAN strives to maintain its centrality and neutrality amidst major power rivalries, there's a tension regarding Trump's claims of singular credit for conflict resolution. This is a concern for some leaders, like former Malaysian PM Mahathir Mohamad, who worry about ASEAN's ability to manage its own regional issues.

Impact of the US-China Trade War on Southeast Asia

The ongoing trade war between the US and China poses a serious concern for Southeast Asia, particularly due to unpredictable and abrupt tariff hikes from the US.

• Tariff Instability: This instability negatively impacts the region and exacerbates existing concerns about supply chain vulnerabilities.
• Countermeasures: Bilateral deals are being pursued as countermeasures. The signing of trade agreements with Malaysia, Thailand, and Cambodia at the summit exemplifies this strategy.

Balancing Relationships Between the US and China

Southeast Asian countries navigate a complex balancing act between the US and China, a defining feature of their foreign policy, rooted in principles of non-alignment and ASEAN centrality.

• Economic Interdependence: The region is economically tethered to both the US and China. China is the largest economic partner, with Chinese firms capitalizing on US protectionist policies. Simultaneously, the US remains a crucial market and security partner.
• Avoiding Sides: The prevailing sentiment is to avoid choosing sides and maintain constructive relations with both powers, though there's a cautious leaning towards the US if forced to choose.
• Difficulty in Managing Rivalry: The summit underscored both the necessity and the difficulty of managing great power rivalry.

Outstanding Issues in Cambodia-Thailand Relations

M Soukua, a former Cambodian politician, expresses gratitude for the mediation but acknowledges that a lasting peace is still a long way off.

• Ceasefire Violations: A previous ceasefire signed on July 28th was immediately broken by Thailand, which took 18 Cambodian soldiers hostage, who remain in Thailand.
• Territorial Disputes: The core issue remains the long-standing territorial dispute between Cambodia and Thailand.
• Role of ICJ: Soukua emphasizes that the International Court of Justice (ICJ) and the Paris Peace Accord provide mechanisms for resolving these disputes. Cambodia is willing to take the case to the ICJ, while Thailand prefers bilateral negotiations and joint committees, which Soukua argues are insufficient for resolving fundamental territorial issues.
• Economic Desperation: Cambodia and Thailand were reportedly desperate to resolve the "very heavy 49% tariffs" on their exports to the US. For Cambodia, with approximately $13 billion in exports to the US, such tariffs would have led to massive layoffs and economic collapse, making them willing to sign a deal under duress.

Synthesis/Conclusion

The video illustrates how geopolitical tensions, particularly the US-China trade war, are influencing regional dynamics in Southeast Asia. US President Trump's strategy of leveraging trade deals to achieve peace and strengthen bilateral ties is evident in the Gula Lumpur Peace Accords and the trade agreements signed with Cambodia, Thailand, and Malaysia. While these deals offer immediate economic benefits and a respite from conflict, underlying territorial disputes and the broader challenge of balancing relationships with major powers like the US and China remain significant hurdles for regional stability and ASEAN centrality. The transactional nature of current US foreign policy is also a key observation, with Southeast Asian nations strategically engaging to secure their economic and security interests.