How I Called 2026's Biggest Rally | Vincent Delaurd

Key Concepts

• Triple Bubble Thesis: Concurrent bubbles in stocks, pessimism, and nominal growth are indicative of a period mirroring historical pre-revolution conditions.
• Nominal Growth as a Leading Indicator: US Treasury tax collection data provides a more reliable gauge of economic activity than traditional surveys.
• Impending Fiscal Impulse: A significant fiscal stimulus is anticipated in 2026, driven by tax refunds and potential political spending.
• Hard Assets as Transition Solutions: Gold, silver, platinum, copper, and potentially cryptocurrency are imperfect but necessary stores of value in a world of global imbalances.
• Global Imbalances & Currency Reset: Significant currency undervaluation, particularly of the Chinese Yuan, necessitates a potential global settlement and currency re-evaluation in the mid-2030s.
• Skepticism of Current Monetary Systems: The current system is inefficient and requires a “proper efficient monetary system” to resolve trade imbalances.

Macroeconomic Outlook & The Triple Bubble (Part 1)

Vincent Deluard of StoneX presents a macroeconomic outlook centered around a “triple bubble” thesis. He identifies interconnected bubbles in the stock market (driven by inflated valuations), a “pessimism bubble” (characterized by negative sentiment despite economic strength), and nominal growth (fueled by rapid income increases). These conditions, he argues, historically precede major societal shifts, framing the current situation within the context of the “Fourth Turning” cycle – a period of crisis and upheaval. Deluard emphasizes the importance of tracking nominal growth, specifically through daily US Treasury data (tax collections), which are currently growing at 8-13% year-over-year, indicating strong economic activity. He rejects prevailing recession narratives, predicting continued growth. He anticipates a significant fiscal impulse in 2026, stemming from approximately $200 billion in tax refunds due to 2025 overpayments (“Big Beautiful Bill”) and potential additional stimulus driven by political pressures leading up to the midterms, supported by strong tax collections ($300 billion/month). While skeptical of a massive productivity boom from AI, he acknowledges the inflationary impact of AI-related capital expenditure (capex), particularly in data center construction. He also highlights the weakening US industrial base as a driver of geopolitical tensions and predicts a shift towards more redistributive economic policies. He draws parallels to the late 1990s/early 2000s, characterized by accelerating inflation, market momentum, and rising volatility.

Hard Assets & Global Imbalances (Part 2)

Deluard recounts a negative experience selling physical precious metal, receiving a 20% discount to the spot price and awaiting full payment, illustrating the inefficiencies of current settlement processes for metals and cryptocurrencies. He posits that a world reliant on Bitcoin, gold, or silver as stores of value would be a “crappy world.” He advocates for allocation to hard assets – gold, silver, platinum, copper, and potentially cryptocurrency – as “transition solutions” rather than optimal ones, imperfect substitutes until a more efficient global monetary system is established. He expresses a preference for gold but acknowledges the recent participation of other metals like copper and anticipates cryptocurrency could become more interesting after navigating its four-year cycle.

A core issue identified is global imbalances, specifically the undervaluation of the Chinese currency and its detrimental effects on European industry and the US trade deficit. He proposes a “global settlement” to address these imbalances, suggesting a re-evaluation of currency valuations, referencing a concept he calls the “Mara Lago core” (though acknowledging its impracticality). He estimates this reset could occur around the mid-2030s. He acknowledges the difficulty in valuing precious metals due to the lack of traditional financial metrics, stating “there is no earnings, there’s no cash flow. So, uh, it it can it can keep going high.” He expresses concern about gold’s chart but concedes its price can continue to rise despite potential overvaluation.

Research Access & Current Environment (Part 2)

Deluard directs interested parties to his X handle (@VincentDeard - D-L-U-A-D), LinkedIn profile (Vincent Deard), and StoneX email address ([email protected]). He notes his research is primarily institutional but welcomes conversations with “smart people” and is willing to share his weekly reports. He characterizes the current global macro environment as “scary and exciting,” anticipating continued volatility and significant developments in the coming year. The host refers to the current global situation as the “World Series of Global Macro,” highlighting the abundance of impactful events unfolding.

Conclusion

Deluard’s analysis presents a complex and contrarian view of the current economic landscape. He argues against conventional recession narratives, emphasizing the strength of nominal growth and anticipating a significant fiscal impulse. While acknowledging the imperfections of hard assets as stores of value, he advocates for their inclusion as transitional solutions in a world characterized by global imbalances and the potential for a future currency reset. His perspective underscores the need for a more efficient global monetary system and highlights the potential for significant volatility and upheaval in the coming years.