How far will the latest protests go in Iran? | Inside Story

Key Concepts

• Economic Crisis in Iran: Severe devaluation of the Iranian Rial, skyrocketing inflation, rising cost of living, and widespread economic hardship.
• Protests & Government Response: Large-scale protests sparked by economic grievances, initially led by shopkeepers, evolving to include students and broader anti-government sentiment. The government’s initial response involved acknowledging the protests and initiating dialogue.
• Sanctions & External Factors: The impact of international sanctions (particularly US sanctions) on the Iranian economy, alongside external threats like potential military action from Israel and the US.
• Internal Political Dynamics: The complex power structure within Iran, including the roles of the President, the clergy, and the military, and the potential for differing responses to the protests.
• Bizaris (Shopkeepers): Historically significant group in Iranian protests, their involvement indicating a broad-based challenge to the regime.

Iran's Economic Crisis and Protests: An In-Depth Analysis

I. The Economic Situation: A Breaking Point

Iran is currently facing a severe economic crisis characterized by a dramatic decline in the value of its currency, the Rial. Over the past year, the Rial has plummeted by over 70%, reaching 1.4 million to the US dollar. This devaluation has fueled unprecedented inflation, estimated at around 50%, with basic food and medical items experiencing price increases of up to 70%. The crisis is multifaceted, stemming from a combination of factors including long-standing international sanctions, internal mismanagement, power cuts, air pollution, and recent external threats like Israeli bombing campaigns and US strikes on nuclear facilities. The resignation of Iran’s central bank governor and his replacement with Abdul Nasar Hemmati, a former finance minister, signals the gravity of the situation. President Ebrahim Raisi describes the situation as a “full-scale war” waged against Iran through economic pressure.

II. The Spark and Evolution of Protests

The current wave of protests was initially triggered by shopkeepers in Tehran closing their stores in protest against rising living costs. Specifically, concerns were raised about the escalating prices of essential goods like dairy products, which had increased sixfold within the year, and other goods rising more than tenfold. The protests quickly broadened, with students from several universities joining the demonstrations, shifting the focus from purely economic grievances to include anti-government sentiments and chants. While initially peaceful, there are reports of individuals attempting to incite violence and destabilize the situation. The government has responded by acknowledging the protests and establishing a dialogue mechanism, a shift from previous approaches.

III. Government Response and Internal Dynamics

President Raisi has called for unity and framed the economic pressure as a form of warfare. The government’s response has been described as “wise” by researcher Ali Akbar Delraini, who emphasizes the government’s willingness to engage in dialogue with protesters. However, Delraini also highlights concerns about “trained individuals” attempting to escalate the protests into violence, and the potential for external actors like Israel and the United States to exploit the situation. The internal political landscape is complex, with the President’s authority balanced by the influence of the clergy and the military. There is a concern that hardline elements within the regime may advocate for a more forceful crackdown if the protests escalate.

IV. The Role of Sanctions and External Pressures

Marzi Khalilan, a political analyst, emphasizes the crucial role of international sanctions, particularly those recently reimposed by the UN, in exacerbating Iran’s economic woes. She argues that the sanctions severely limit the government’s ability to address the economic crisis effectively. Steven Zunes, professor of politics, acknowledges the impact of sanctions but stresses that the underlying problems are systemic and rooted in the regime’s policies. He points out that the protests are broader-based than previous demonstrations, including participation from the working class and historically supportive segments of the population. The involvement of the bizaris (shopkeepers), traditionally a backbone of the revolution, is seen as particularly significant.

V. Historical Parallels and Potential Trajectories

Ali Akbar Delraini draws a parallel to the 1978-1979 Iranian Revolution, noting the involvement of similar segments of the population. This raises concerns about the potential for the protests to evolve into a broader movement for political change. Steven Zunes suggests that the protests represent a challenge to the regime’s legitimacy and could lead to demands for democratization. However, he also cautions that a harsh crackdown by hardline elements within the regime is a distinct possibility. Marzi Khalilan highlights the lack of trust between Iran and the international community, particularly the US, due to past broken agreements and the imposition of sanctions despite Iranian compliance.

VI. Negotiations and Future Prospects

The possibility of renewed negotiations with the US to alleviate sanctions was discussed. However, Marzi Khalilan points to a deep-seated lack of trust, stemming from Iran’s previous compliance with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) without receiving the promised economic benefits. Steven Zunes argues that the US’s opposition to Iran is primarily driven by its challenge to US hegemony in the region, rather than concerns about human rights or nuclear proliferation.

Notable Quotes:

• President Ebrahim Raisi: “You cannot conquer a nation with bombs, fighter jets, or missiles. To defeat us, they would have to come and face us on the ground.”
• Ali Akbar Delraini: “This is a legitimate protest against mismanagement, corruption, and high inflation.”
• Steven Zunes: “This is a much more broadbased protest than we have seen before both in terms of class but also in terms of geography.”

Technical Terms:

• Rial: The official currency of Iran.
• JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action): The 2015 nuclear agreement between Iran and several world powers.
• Bizaris: Shopkeepers and merchants, historically a significant social and political force in Iran.
• Sanctions: Economic penalties imposed by one or more countries against another, typically to influence its policies.

Conclusion:

Iran is facing a critical juncture, grappling with a severe economic crisis and widespread public discontent. While the government has adopted a more conciliatory approach, the underlying issues are deeply rooted and complex. The protests, fueled by economic hardship and a lack of trust in the government, represent a significant challenge to the regime. The interplay of internal political dynamics, international sanctions, and external pressures will determine the trajectory of the situation, with the potential for either meaningful reform or a further escalation of conflict. The involvement of the bizaris and the broadening base of protesters suggest a potentially transformative moment for Iran.