How far will Iran's protests go? Defiance grows despite crackdown • FRANCE 24 English

How Far Will Iran’s Protests Go? – A France 24 Debate Summary

Key Concepts:

• Women, Life, Freedom Movement (2022): The foundational protests against the Islamic Republic, sparked by the death of Mahsa Amini, focusing on women’s rights and broader political change.
• Revolution vs. Protest: The central debate regarding the scale and potential outcome of the current unrest – whether it represents a genuine revolutionary movement or another cycle of suppressed protests.
• Economic Crisis: The severe economic hardship in Iran, including high inflation (over 52% officially, 60-73% for foodstuffs) and widespread poverty (nearly 50% of the population below the poverty line), as a key driver of the protests.
• Regime Resilience: The Islamic Republic’s historical ability to suppress dissent and maintain power despite repeated waves of protests and international pressure.
• International Context: The shifting geopolitical landscape, including US-Iran relations, the war in Ukraine, and Iran’s diminishing influence in the region, impacting the current situation.
• IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps): A powerful military and political force within Iran, responsible for maintaining internal security and projecting influence abroad.
• Sanctions & Oil Exports: The impact of international sanctions on Iran’s economy and the regime’s ability to circumvent them through oil exports.

1. Current Situation & Scale of Protests

The protests in Iran, now in their 12th day, represent the largest unrest since the 2022 “Women, Life, Freedom” movement. Demonstrations have spread from Tehran’s Grand Bazaar to all 31 provinces, including remote villages and traditionally conservative towns like Kangan. Protesters are tearing down statues of figures like Qassem Soleimani and burning the Iranian flag, indicating a deep level of anger and rejection of the regime. The internet has been largely shut down, but images and reports continue to emerge via VPNs and citizen journalism. The scale of the protests is unprecedented, with participants reporting larger crowds than seen in previous movements, including 2009, 2019, and 2022. Arshad Alaghani, monitoring the situation, reported receiving messages from protesters in East Tehran describing the largest crowds seen in decades.

2. Economic Drivers & Social Composition

The protests initially began with merchants in Tehran protesting rising prices and the collapse of the Iranian currency. Tara Congeroo highlighted the dire economic situation, with nearly 50% of the population living below the poverty line and inflation exceeding 50% (official rate). The economic crisis is attributed to both failed domestic policies and external sanctions. However, the current protests represent a broader coalition than previous movements. While earlier protests were often led by the working class (e.g., 2019 petrol price protests) or the middle class (2022 Women, Life, Freedom movement), the current unrest involves a mix of both, indicating wider societal discontent. The tech-savvy youth and online businesses are also playing a significant role.

3. Regime Response & Resilience

The Iranian government is employing its typical strategy of offering dialogue while simultaneously using deadly force, issuing warnings, and restricting internet access. Over 2,000 people have been arrested, and at least two dozen killed since the unrest began, according to the Iran Human Rights Group. Despite repeated waves of protests, the regime has historically proven resilient, often through brutal suppression of dissent. Benam Ben Taliblau emphasized that the regime’s brutality has been a key factor in its survival. Ayatollah Khamenei recently broke his silence, calling for firmness against protesters and distinguishing between those who “protest” and those who “riot.”

4. Distinguishing Factors of the Current Movement

Several factors differentiate the current protests from previous movements:

• Lack of Deterrence: Despite the severe repression following the 2022 protests and alleged chemical attacks on schoolgirls, protesters have not been deterred.
• Widespread Discontent: The protests are occurring across a broader geographic area and involve a more diverse range of social groups.
• Nationalist Tone: The protests are increasingly characterized by nationalist sentiment, with protesters rejecting foreign interference and emphasizing their desire for self-determination.
• Post-Conflict Context: The protests are occurring shortly after a direct military confrontation between Iran and Israel ("12-day war"), yet there has been no “rally around the flag” effect.
• Trump’s Messaging: Donald Trump’s vocal support for Iranian protesters adds a new dimension to the international context.

5. International Implications & Potential US Policy

The international context is crucial. Iran’s influence in the region is waning, as evidenced by its diminished role in Syria, Lebanon, and Venezuela. Benam Ben Taliblau highlighted the potential for increased US pressure through stricter enforcement of oil sanctions, including confiscating Iranian oil tankers. However, Tara Congeroo cautioned that sanctions primarily harm the Iranian population and benefit a politically connected elite. The role of Russia is also changing, as it is less willing to unconditionally support Iran given its own geopolitical priorities.

6. Potential Outcomes & Revolutionary Sentiment

Kan Habibian argued that the scale of the protests – encompassing almost all Iranian provinces and multiple layers of society – constitutes a revolution. Tara Congeroo noted a growing sense of unity among Iranians around three core principles: the fall of the Islamic Republic, the establishment of a democratic and secular system, and the preservation of Iran’s territorial integrity. However, she also emphasized the need for international support to protect activists and ensure a free flow of information. Benam Ben Taliblau stressed the importance of a framework that respects the diverse views and interests within Iranian society. There is a sense that the regime is at its weakest point, with internal divisions and a loss of legitimacy.

7. Notable Quotes

• “It is not a protest when you have almost all the provinces of Iran who are in the streets. When you have that many layers of the society who is in the streets, what we call that is a revolution.” – Kan Habibian
• “The Iranian people have come together to once again tell the Islamic regime that we want change.” – Tara Congeroo
• “The regime’s brutality that has allowed it to limp along in the face of wave after wave after wave of sustained anti-regime protest.” – Benam Ben Taliblau
• “People have decided to decide for themselves tomorrow.” – Kan Habibian, emphasizing the agency of the Iranian people.

8. Data & Statistics

• Inflation Rate: Over 52% (official rate in December), 60-73% for foodstuffs.
• Poverty Rate: Nearly 50% of the population living below the poverty line.
• Oil Exports: Iran exporting over 2 million barrels of oil per day.
• Arrests: Over 2,000 people arrested since the unrest began.
• Deaths: At least two dozen killed since the unrest began.

Conclusion:

The current protests in Iran represent a significant challenge to the Islamic Republic. While the regime has historically demonstrated resilience, the scale, scope, and composition of the current unrest, coupled with a changing international context, suggest that this movement may be different. The outcome remains uncertain, but the Iranian people have clearly expressed their desire for fundamental change. The role of international actors, particularly the United States, will be crucial in shaping the future of Iran. The key takeaway is that the protests are not simply about economic grievances but reflect a deep-seated rejection of the Islamic Republic and a yearning for a more democratic and free future.