How “El Mencho’s” death could reshape Mexico’s largest cartel | The Economist

Key Concepts

• Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG): One of the two largest and most rapidly expanding drug cartels in Mexico, known for its brutality, diversification, and extensive reach.
• El Mencho (Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes): The former leader of CJNG, recently captured and deceased, whose removal triggered widespread violence.
• Fragmentation: The process by which a cartel splits into smaller, warring factions following the removal of its leader, often leading to increased violence.
• Kingpin Strategy: A law enforcement tactic focused on removing the leaders of criminal organizations, which has been criticized for potentially exacerbating violence.
• Succession Plan: A pre-arranged plan for leadership transition within a criminal organization, the absence or disruption of which can contribute to fragmentation.
• Internecine Fighting: Violent conflict between factions within the same criminal organization.

The Capture and Death of El Mencho & Subsequent Violence

Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, known as El Mencho, the head of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG), was captured and subsequently died on Sunday. This event immediately sparked significant violence across at least 15 to 20 states in Mexico. This included roadblocks, the burning of buses, flight cancellations, and shelter-in-place orders for tourists in Puerto Vallarta, the state where El Mencho was apprehended. While the violence subsided by Tuesday, concerns remain that this is not the end of the unrest.

The CJNG has grown to become Mexico’s most significant criminal organization, with an international presence and operations in all 32 Mexican states. The cartel is heavily diversified, engaging in fuel theft, corruption, extortion, drug trafficking, and even timeshare fraud. It is notorious for its extreme brutality, possessing weaponry capable of downing military helicopters and utilizing drones for explosive attacks. The CJNG is structured as an amalgam of up to 92 affiliated groups, historically maintained under a strict, vertical command structure by El Mencho through the ruthless application of violence.

Potential for Fragmentation and Increased Violence

A key concern following El Mencho’s death is the potential for fragmentation within the CJNG. Historically, removing a cartel leader often leads to internal conflict as factions vie for control. This internecine fighting typically results in increased violence. In 2020, the CJNG attempted to assassinate Omar Harfuch, Mexico City’s then-security chief (now federal security minister), in a brazen daylight attack, demonstrating the cartel’s audacity and capability.

The speaker highlights a parallel situation from summer 2024, when a leader of the Sinaloa cartel was arrested and extradited to the US. Initial violence was followed by a period of calm, but in September, a full-scale war erupted within the Sinaloa cartel, continuing to this day despite significant military intervention. This illustrates the risk of a similar pattern unfolding with the CJNG. The Mexican security minister has already acknowledged this risk and emphasized the need for vigilance to prevent a “epidemic of violence.”

Political and International Pressures Driving the Operation

The capture and death of El Mencho are viewed as a significant success for the Mexican government and are welcomed by the United States. However, the timing and manner of the operation are also influenced by political pressures. President Claudia Sheinbaum has prioritized security since taking office 18 months ago, boosting intelligence capabilities and signaling a departure from her predecessor’s approach.

Furthermore, Sheinbaum faces pressure from the US, particularly from Donald Trump, who has threatened unilateral American strikes against criminal groups in Mexico if insufficient action is taken. While the operation may not represent a full return to the “kingpin strategy” (which Sheinbaum has previously criticized), the value of El Mencho as a target and the pressure from the US likely contributed to the decision to pursue his capture. The operation is also seen as a demonstration of the Mexican forces’ capabilities.

Short-Term Calm and Long-Term Risks

While the initial spike in violence has subsided, the speaker cautions against interpreting this as the end of the episode. A lull is often followed by a period of regrouping and alliance-building among criminal factions. The situation is particularly critical given Mexico’s role as a co-host of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, with Guadalajara (the capital of Jalisco) scheduled to host matches in just four months. Any significant violent fallout could have far-reaching consequences for Mexico, impacting its economy, security, and international reputation. The world’s attention will be focused on Mexico in the lead-up to and during the World Cup, making stability paramount.

Conclusion

The capture and death of El Mencho represent a significant, yet potentially destabilizing, event for Mexico. While a major coup for the government, the risk of fragmentation within the CJNG and subsequent increased violence remains high. The situation is further complicated by political pressures and the upcoming World Cup. Continued vigilance and proactive security measures will be crucial in the coming months to prevent a resurgence of violence and safeguard Mexico’s stability.