How does Putin read Trump's recurring ultimatums on Ukraine? | DW News

Key Concepts:

• Putin-Zelensky meeting: Lack of plans and preconditions.
• Security Guarantees for Ukraine: Discussions, NATO's role, and Russian opposition.
• Trump's involvement: Deadlines, potential sanctions/tariffs, and perceived sympathy towards Putin.
• War of Attrition: Stalemate, negotiation prospects, and reliance on the other side collapsing.
• Ceasefire: Divergent positions on preconditions (Ukrainian neutrality, territorial concessions).

1. Putin-Zelensky Meeting:

• Sergey Lavrov stated that there are no current plans for a meeting between Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
• Putin will be ready for a meeting "when the agenda is ready," implying preconditions.
• Zelenskyy claims Russia is actively preventing a face-to-face meeting.
• Moscow maintains that the necessary conditions for such talks have not been met.

2. Security Guarantees for Ukraine:

• NATO chief Mark Rutte visited Kyiv to discuss future security guarantees for Ukraine.
• These guarantees have been a central topic among European leaders.
• Rutte emphasized the need for "robust security guarantees" to ensure Russia upholds any deal and prevents future aggression.
• Lavrov dismissed discussions about security guarantees without Russia's involvement as "a road to nowhere."
• Russia opposes the presence of European forces on Ukrainian soil.
• The best security guarantees for Ukraine would entail NATO troops on Ukrainian territory, which Russia wants to avoid.

3. Trump's Involvement:

• President Trump announced he would make a "very important decision" on the Ukraine war in two weeks, considering "massive sanctions or massive tariffs or both," or doing nothing.
• Trump shared a "memento" from Vladimir Putin.
• Trump gave Putin a two-week deadline to meet with Zelenskyy.
• Nicholas Balbon suggests Trump is more sympathetic to Putin's position than previously hoped.
• Balbon notes Trump's history of not following through on deadlines.

4. War of Attrition and Negotiation Prospects:

• The conflict is characterized as a "war of attrition," with neither side capable of a major military breakthrough.
• The only ways to end the conflict are through negotiations or one side collapsing.
• Russia is betting on the latter, influenced by Trump's perceived lack of follow-through on actions that could weaken Russia.

5. Ceasefire Conditions:

• Ukraine has offered Russia an "unconditional ceasefire."
• Russia demands "major concessions" regarding security guarantees and Ukraine's potential NATO membership as preconditions for a ceasefire.
• These divergent positions make a meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy risky for Ukraine, as failure could lead to Trump withdrawing support.

6. Recent Military Developments:

• Ukraine experienced one of the heaviest Russian strikes in weeks, involving over 500 drones and dozens of missiles.
• Russian forces have been making slow but steady gains across the front line.

7. Expert Analysis (Nicholas Balbon):

• The lack of progress on a ceasefire indicates the low likelihood of a successful Putin-Zelenskyy meeting.
• NATO's "robust security guarantees" are more of a talking point to signal readiness.
• It's not clear that NATO might be part of any kind of security guarantees.
• Trump's deadlines are not effective due to his history of not following through.
• The meeting in Alaska showed that Trump is a bit more sympathetic to towards Putin's position.

8. Zelenskyy's Perspective:

• Zelenskyy believes Russia doesn't want to end the war but uses ultimatums to block any possibility of ending the war.
• Russia is actively trying to prevent the United States from applying full pressure through sanctions.

9. Conclusion:

The situation surrounding the Russia-Ukraine war remains complex and uncertain. A meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy appears unlikely due to significant disagreements on preconditions, particularly regarding security guarantees and territorial concessions. Trump's involvement adds another layer of complexity, with his deadlines and potential policy shifts creating uncertainty. The conflict is a war of attrition, and the outcome may depend on negotiations or the collapse of one side, with Russia seemingly betting on the latter due to perceived weaknesses in Western resolve.