How'd we do predicting 2025's spaceflight milestones?!

Key Concepts

• Starship: SpaceX’s fully reusable transportation system intended to carry both crew and cargo to Earth orbit, the Moon, Mars, and beyond.
• Falcon 9/Heavy: SpaceX’s currently operational launch vehicles.
• SLS (Space Launch System): NASA’s heavy-lift launch vehicle, part of the Artemis program.
• Dream Chaser: Sierra Space’s reusable spaceplane designed for cargo delivery to the ISS.
• Neutron: Rocket Lab’s in-development medium-lift launch vehicle.
• New Glenn: Blue Origin’s in-development heavy-lift launch vehicle.
• Nova: Stoke Space’s fully reusable rocket, currently in development.
• Artemis Program: NASA’s program to return humans to the Moon.
• Astro Awards: A conference hosted by The Everyday Astronaut featuring space industry professionals and enthusiasts.
• Orbital Launch Attempts: Attempts to place a payload into orbit around Earth.

SpaceX Starship & Falcon 9/Heavy Performance Review (2025 Predictions vs. Reality)

The video centers around a review of predictions made in a January 1st, 2025 poll regarding key events in the space industry. A new poll for 2026 is also announced, with a reminder to screenshot responses for future comparison.

Starship Launch Frequency: The poll accurately predicted 5-8 Starship launches in 2025, with the actual number being five. This was considered a success for the collective prediction.

Starship Upper Stage Catch: A significant miscalculation was the expectation of a Starship upper stage catch in 2025. Despite successful booster catches, the upper stage catch remains unachieved. The speaker notes that orbital missions will be required before attempting upper stage catches, necessitating further vehicle testing and refinement to ensure safe pinpoint landings without debris.

Functional Payload Deployment: The prediction of a functional payload deployment by Starship was incorrect. While dummy Starlink satellites were deployed, these were part of a suborbital mission, meaning the payloads did not reach orbit.

Super Heavy Booster Reflight: The community correctly predicted that SpaceX would refly a Super Heavy booster in 2025 (57.9% accuracy). Conversely, the prediction that SpaceX would refly a Starship upper stage was incorrect (78% predicted no reflight).

New Launch Vehicle & Program Updates (2025 Predictions vs. Reality)

Rocket Lab Neutron: The prediction of a 2025 launch for Rocket Lab’s Neutron rocket was incorrect. The speaker acknowledges this and indicates the 2026 poll will focus on milestones rather than a simple launch/no launch binary.

Sierra Space Dream Chaser: The launch of Sierra Space’s Dream Chaser spaceplane was also not realized in 2025. The original contract for ISS resupply has shifted, contributing to the delay.

SLS Survival: Predictions that SLS would be cancelled proved inaccurate. The program continues, with another launch planned, and no immediate cancellation rumors are circulating. However, potential future pressure and alternative options are anticipated.

Boeing Starliner: The prediction of human launches for Boeing’s Starliner in 2025 was incorrect, with zero launches occurring. Cancellation was also not predicted, mirroring the situation with SLS. The speaker expresses surprise at the continued delays.

Blue Origin New Glenn: The community was largely correct in predicting a successful launch and landing of Blue Origin’s New Glenn rocket in 2025. Both a successful launch and a successful landing occurred, making New Glenn a strong contender for the speaker’s “Astro Awards.”

European Launch Providers: A new European launch provider failing to reach orbit in 2025 proved accurate, despite a launch attempt by ESAR’s Spectre rocket which did not achieve orbit. The speaker expresses surprise at the lack of further orbital launch attempts from Europe.

Stoke Space Nova: Predictions regarding Stoke Space’s Nova rocket were overly optimistic. No significant milestones (static fire, full stack, launch) were achieved in 2025. The speaker remains hopeful for progress in 2026, noting Stoke’s ongoing development of flight hardware.

Global Launch Statistics & Other Predictions

Orbital Launch Attempts: The prediction of orbital launch attempts was underestimated. 330 orbital launch attempts occurred in 2025, compared to 261 in 2024.

Hubble Servicing Mission: The prediction of a green light for a privately funded Hubble servicing mission, spurred by Jared Isaacman’s appointment as NASA administrator, did not materialize in 2025. The speaker expresses hope for this mission to occur during Isaacman’s tenure.

SpaceX Falcon 9/Heavy Launch Frequency: The prediction of Falcon 9/Heavy launch frequency was underestimated. 165 launches occurred in 2025, compared to 134 in 2024.

Astro Awards & Closing Remarks

The speaker promoted the upcoming Astro Awards conference (astroawards.live) on January 17th and 18th, highlighting the impressive lineup of speakers and events. He encouraged viewers to purchase tickets and participate.

The video concludes with optimistic remarks about the future of spaceflight, anticipating 2026 as a particularly exciting year with Artemis 2, Starship developments, New Glenn ramp-up, and potential new space stations and lunar landers. He encourages viewers to participate in the 2026 poll and looks forward to reviewing the results next year.

Notable Quote: “I think 2026 will be the most exciting, coolest year in space flight in my lifetime.” – Tim Dodd, The Everyday Astronaut.