How could the US attack Iran? | BBC News

US & UK Military Posture in the Middle East & Potential Action Against Iran

Key Concepts:

• Al Udeid Air Base: Largest US military base in the Middle East, housing the Combined Air Operations Center (CAOC) and serving as the forward headquarters for US Central Command (CENTCOM).
• CENTCOM: US Unified Combatant Command responsible for the Middle East, Central Asia, and parts of South Asia.
• THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense): US missile defense system capable of engaging ballistic missiles both inside and outside the atmosphere.
• Patriot Missile System: US missile defense system designed to counter cruise missiles, drones, and aircraft within the atmosphere.
• Hypersonic Missile (Fattah): Iranian missile capable of speeds exceeding Mach 5, featuring a maneuverable warhead, posing a significant challenge to existing defense systems.
• Tomahawk Land Attack Missile (TLAM): US cruise missile with long range and bunker-busting capabilities, launched from submarines or warships.
• SU-35/SU-30: Russian fighter jets Iran is acquiring to bolster its air defense capabilities.

1. Significance of Al Udeid Air Base & Regional Command Structure

Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar is the largest US military base in the Middle East, housing over 10,000 troops. Its primary importance lies in the Combined Air Operations Center (CAOC), which functions as the forward headquarters for US Central Command (CENTCOM). CENTCOM’s area of responsibility is vast, extending from Egypt in the west to Kazakhstan in the east. The CAOC provides a “common operational picture” – a comprehensive, real-time view of military assets (platoons, tanks, warships, aircraft) across the region, utilizing trackers to build a complete situational awareness. The UK contributes approximately 100 personnel from the Ministry of Defense, including the 83rd Expeditionary Air Group, supporting operations like Operation Shader against Islamic State in northern Syria. The recent partial troop withdrawal from Al Udeid by the US and UK is occurring amidst President Trump’s consideration of potential action against Iran following its crackdown on anti-government protests.

2. Iranian Missile Attacks & US Air Defense Systems

In June of last year, Al Udeid was targeted by Iranian ballistic missiles, but with a notable difference: a prior warning was provided. The attack utilized what was described as a “milder” Iranian ballistic missile capability. The US employs two primary air defense systems around Al Udeid: the Patriot and THAAD systems. THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) is particularly significant, capable of intercepting medium to intermediate-range ballistic missiles both inside and outside the Earth’s atmosphere. The Patriot system focuses on engaging threats within the atmosphere, such as cruise missiles, drones, and aircraft. While not as layered as Israel’s Iron Dome system (with its Iron Dome, David Sling, and Arrow 2/3 components), these systems provide a degree of defense against Iranian attacks.

3. Potential US Response & Target Sets in Iran

The current situation involves a “tit-for-tat” dynamic, with President Trump threatening to target Iran if it executes prisoners, and Iran vowing retaliation. Potential US targets would primarily focus on Iranian military installations and facilities along the Arabian Gulf. These include installations in Kuwait (legacy of the 2004 Iraq War, located 25 miles from the Iraqi border), Bahrain (home to the US Fifth Fleet responsible for maritime security), the UAE (air force base), and Al Udeid itself. The US would likely prioritize targeting Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities. Iran possesses the most diverse inventory of ballistic missiles in the region.

4. The Threat of Iranian Hypersonic Missiles (Fattah)

A significant new threat is the Iranian Fattah hypersonic missile, reportedly already used against Tel Aviv. This missile can travel at speeds exceeding Mach 5 (five times the speed of sound) and utilizes a hypersonic glide vehicle. Unlike traditional ballistic missiles with predictable parabolic trajectories, the Fattah can steer its warhead, making it significantly harder to intercept. It is uncertain whether THAAD or Patriot systems could effectively defend against this type of missile. Targeteers would also focus on Iranian aircraft on the ground, aiming to prevent them from becoming airborne, as seen in Venezuela recently.

5. Deepening Iran-Russia Relationship & Military Aid

There is growing evidence of a deepening military relationship between Iran and Russia, as well as China. While Iran was reportedly disappointed by Russia’s lack of direct engagement during the 12-day war in June, subsequent developments indicate increased cooperation. Iran has signed deals to acquire Su-35 and Su-30 fighter jets from Russia (the latter type also purchased by Venezuela). This is driven by the fact that the IDF and US forces destroyed much of Iran’s existing air defense and fighter jet capabilities during the 12-day war. Therefore, the US would also target this newly acquired Russian military hardware.

6. US Offensive Capabilities: Tomahawk Missiles & Aircraft Carriers

The US possesses substantial offensive capabilities, including the Tomahawk Land Attack Missile (TLAM). This cruise missile, launched from submarines or warships, travels at subsonic speeds with a range of 1,000 miles. It can be equipped with high-explosive or bunker-busting warheads, enabling it to target Iranian command and control structures and hardened facilities. The TLAM’s submarine-launched variant is particularly difficult for Iran to counter. The USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier is reportedly being repositioned from Asia to the Middle East, offering the potential to launch up to 240 missions with a variety of aircraft. However, aircraft carriers are vulnerable to missile attacks, necessitating the use of TLAMs and other defensive measures.

Notable Quote:

“With a hypersonic missile, it's got the ability to steer its own warhead. So it goes out of that parabolic style and it makes it much much harder to defend.” – Mikey Kay, former British military planner.

Conclusion:

The US maintains a significant military presence and a diverse range of capabilities in the Middle East, centered around Al Udeid Air Base and CENTCOM. Potential conflict with Iran would likely involve targeting Iran’s ballistic missile infrastructure, newly acquired Russian military hardware, and air assets. The emergence of Iranian hypersonic missiles like the Fattah presents a new and challenging threat, while the US relies on systems like THAAD, Patriot, and Tomahawk missiles to maintain a strategic advantage. The deepening relationship between Iran and Russia further complicates the situation, necessitating a comprehensive assessment of Iran’s evolving military capabilities by US targeteers.