How close is the US to war with Venezuela? | The Take

Key Concepts

• US Military Buildup in the Caribbean: Increased US military presence and operations off the coast of Venezuela.
• Narco-terrorism: The US administration's framing of Venezuela as a hub for drug trafficking and terrorism.
• Regime Change: The US goal of replacing the current Venezuelan government.
• Material Interests: The underlying economic and strategic motivations behind US foreign policy, particularly Venezuela's oil reserves.
• Ideological Project: The belief that certain ideologies, like communism, should not be present in the Western Hemisphere, as championed by some US officials.
• Monroe Doctrine: A historical US foreign policy principle asserting US dominance in the Western Hemisphere.
• Hermetic Circle: The closed and secretive nature of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro's inner circle.
• Guerilla Warfare: Venezuela's potential strategy of a protracted, unconventional conflict in response to intervention.
• Negotiated Transition: A peaceful transfer of power through dialogue and agreement, as opposed to military intervention.
• Expatriated Opposition: Venezuelan opposition figures living outside the country who may lead a post-regime change government.
• Chavismo: The political ideology and movement associated with former Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez.
• Maria Corina Machado: A prominent Venezuelan opposition leader with a more extremist stance.
• Mass Exodus: The large-scale emigration of Venezuelans due to the ongoing crisis.
• Gallows Humor: A coping mechanism involving dark or morbid humor in the face of dire circumstances.

US War in Venezuela: Imminent or Ideological?

This episode of "The Take" by Al Jazeera podcasts delves into the escalating tensions between the United States and Venezuela, examining the motivations behind the US military buildup in the Caribbean and its potential consequences. Associate Professor of History at New York University, Alejandro Velasco, provides analysis, arguing that while the US rhetoric focuses on narco-terrorism and democracy, the underlying drivers are more complex and rooted in material interests and ideological agendas.

US Military Presence and Rhetoric

The transcript highlights a significant increase in US military activity in the Caribbean, described as the most substantial presence outside of planned exercises in the 21st century. This buildup includes deadly strikes targeting alleged drug trafficking vessels, resulting in over 80 deaths. President Donald Trump has publicly stated his intention to "take out those boats" and indicated a willingness to "attack on land also."

Key Points:

• Intensified Pressure: The US is increasing pressure on Venezuela through both rhetoric and military presence.
• Targeting Drug Trafficking: US military actions are framed as targeting alleged drug trafficking vessels.
• Trump's Stance: President Trump has expressed a strong desire to eliminate these vessels and is open to land-based operations.
• Unprecedented Military Presence: The scale of US military deployment in the Caribbean is noted as historically significant.

Motivations Behind US Policy

Velasco argues that the US rationale for heightened tensions with Venezuela is multifaceted, encompassing ideological and domestic factors, but that these explanations do not fully account for the extent of the US government's narrative.

Key Arguments and Perspectives:

• Conflation of Interests: The current moment feels more fraught due to the conflation of various US interests.
• Domestic Appeal of Narco-terrorism: The "narco-terrorism" discourse is presented as more favorable to Trump's base than "regime change" or "democracy promotion," which have been rejected by the MAGA base.
• Contradictions in US Policy: The administration's targeting of Maduro as a cartel leader is contrasted with the recent pardon of former Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernández, who was convicted on drug trafficking charges.
• Material Interests Over Principle: Velasco suggests that seeking principled coherence in US foreign policy is often futile, and the focus should be on material interests at stake.
• Trump's Base: Trump understands that his base is likely to support his actions without demanding consistency.
• Oil Reserves as a Driver: Trump's interest in Venezuela is primarily driven by the desire to secure access to its vast oil reserves at favorable rates.

Key US Officials and Their Agendas

The transcript identifies two key US officials driving policy towards Venezuela: Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Secretary of War Pete Hegseth.

Analysis of Officials' Priorities:

• Pete Hegseth (Secretary of War): His approach is described as "instrumental," aiming to "flex the muscular presence of the US military." He sees Venezuela as a viable place to enact military objectives, though he faces President Trump's reluctance to engage in direct wars. This leads to framing operations around terrorism and narcotics.
• Marco Rubio: His agenda is primarily an "ideological project of regime change." With his Cuban-American background and base in South Florida, he views Venezuela, Nicaragua, and other regional governments as "bastions of communism." His goal is to prevent such ideologies from persisting in the Western Hemisphere.

Logical Connection: While Rubio focuses on ideology, Trump is driven by material interests, necessitating a different narrative to sell intervention to him, which appears to be oil.

Historical Context and US Interventionism

The discussion situates current US-Venezuela tensions within the broader history of US intervention in Latin America, citing examples like Chile, Guatemala, Ecuador, and Panama.

Key Points:

• Pattern of Intervention: The current actions are seen as following a historical pattern of US interventionism in the region.
• Unique Feature: Scale of Military Presence: The most unique aspect of the current situation is the unprecedented scale of the US military presence and deployment in the Caribbean.
• Modern Monroe Doctrine: The current approach is characterized as a highly militarized assertion of US dominance, akin to a significantly evolved Monroe Doctrine.
• Shift from Covert to Overt Military Action: Unlike past interventions often led by the CIA, the current situation involves a more overt and robust deployment of the US Army.
• "The Western Hemisphere is the United States' Terrain": This underlying belief dictates that international rules are secondary to maintaining US-beneficial peace in the hemisphere.

Venezuela's Response and Internal Dynamics

Despite the US military buildup, President Maduro publicly projects an image of confidence, engaging in public displays like dancing and singing. However, the mood within his inner circle is less clear.

Analysis of Venezuela's Situation:

• Hermetic Inner Circle: Maduro's inner circle is composed of high-level military and Cuban intelligence officials, making information scarce.
• No Signs of Weakening: There is no public indication of splintering or weakening within the upper echelons of the government.
• Existential Battle: Many within Maduro's government face potential international criminal court proceedings, providing strong incentives to remain in power.
• Conventional Conflict Unlikely: Venezuela acknowledges it would not stand a chance in a conventional conflict.
• Guerilla Warfare Strategy: Plans are underway for a protracted guerrilla-type campaign to sow chaos and confusion, aiming to deter an easy regime change operation.

Scenarios for Regime Change and Their Consequences

The transcript explores potential scenarios for regime change in Venezuela and their implications for the Venezuelan people.

Scenarios and Their Impacts:

• Military Intervention/Operation:
  • Limited Prospects for Stable Transition: A military-led regime change would likely result in a difficult transition, with expatriated opposition facing challenges in integrating Chavista sectors.
  • Repression or Military Deployment: The new government might resort to repression or military deployment to maintain control.
  • Destruction of Venezuelan Military: A military intervention would necessitate the dismantling of the Venezuelan military.
• Negotiated Transition:
  • Higher Prospects for Stability: A negotiated transition, though potentially longer, offers a greater chance for a more stable and fruitful outcome.
  • Viable Paths Exist: Despite propaganda, viable paths for negotiated transitions are discussed, with some Venezuelan officials engaging with the US government.
  • Clarity for the Future: A negotiated transition could provide Venezuelans with more clarity about their future, unlike the current situation with a "damocles sword" of military personnel offshore.

The Role of Opposition Leader Maria Corina Machado

Maria Corina Machado is presented as a prominent opposition figure whose stance has solidified her image as an extremist.

Machado's Position:

• Calls for Armed Intervention: She has openly advocated for armed intervention in Venezuela.
• Willingness to Cede Oil: She has stated her intention to give up Venezuela's oil to US companies and privatize its industrial park if regime change occurs.
• Challenges to Inclusivity: Her positions make it difficult for her to lead an inclusive government, especially given the historical exclusion of popular sectors that Chavismo initially addressed.
• Re-emergence of Past Conflicts: A return to a pre-Chavista era under her leadership could reignite the conflicts that led to Chávez's rise.

The Plight of the Venezuelan People

The discussion turns to the impact of the crisis and escalating tensions on the Venezuelan population, with over 8 million having fled the country.

Impact on Venezuelans:

• Resilience: Venezuelans are described as an extremely resilient people who have endured polarized politics and economic fluctuations without descending into civil war.
• Desire for Stability: The primary desire of most Venezuelans is stability and a better future for their children.
• "Life Goes On": Despite heightened tensions, people continue with their daily lives, attending baseball games and shopping, not out of denial but out of an understanding of past crises.
• Coping Mechanisms: The use of "gallows humor" is a way to deflect anxiety and cope with the mounting tension.
• Uncertain Future: The future remains highly uncertain, with planning limited to the immediate day, and hope for "another day" being a primary source of sustenance.

Conclusion

The transcript suggests that while the US administration frames its actions in Venezuela through the lens of narco-terrorism and democracy, the underlying motivations are likely driven by material interests, particularly Venezuela's oil reserves, and ideological agendas. The unprecedented military buildup in the Caribbean signals a more overt and robust assertion of US dominance in the region. Venezuela, acknowledging its conventional military weakness, is preparing for a protracted guerrilla campaign. The potential consequences of regime change, whether through military intervention or negotiation, carry significant implications for the country's future stability and the well-being of its people, who are characterized by their resilience and a deep desire for peace and stability amidst profound uncertainty.