How China is playing its geopolitical cards as the West fights | DW News

Key Concepts

• US-China Relations: Diverging visions of the world order and increasing competition.
• European Role: Navigating between US and China, concerns about US reliability, and potential for improved China-Europe relations.
• Ukraine War: China’s neutral stance, reluctance to pressure Russia, and maintaining trade relations with both sides.
• Economic Weaponization: Export controls, rare earth minerals, and decoupling of economies.
• Taiwan: US policy towards Taiwan, potential for shifts under a Trump administration, and long-term shifts in Taiwanese identity.
• International Law & Sovereignty: China’s stated commitment to international law versus its actions regarding Russia and regional disputes.
• Globalization & Deterrence: The changing global landscape, China’s experience with sanctions, and the concept of “neutral deterrence.”

US & China Present Divergent Worldviews at Munich Security Conference

The discussion centered around the contrasting speeches delivered by US Senator Marco Rubio and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi at the Munich Security Conference. Rubio aimed to reassure European audiences following perceived US unreliability, particularly referencing JD Vance’s previous harsh speech and concerns over issues like the “green line” (likely referring to funding for Ukraine). He emphasized the historical and civilizational connection between the US and Europe, stating they were “the child of Europe.” Wang Yi, conversely, presented a different vision, focusing on China’s perspective on global issues.

China’s Opportunity & Limitations in US-Europe Rift

While the growing tensions between the US and Europe present a theoretical opportunity for China to strengthen its relationships with European nations, Professor Dawei argues that capitalizing on this opportunity is “quite difficult.” He believes the split between the US and Europe is “limited” and that significant differences remain between China and Europe, particularly regarding the Ukraine war and economic relations. He highlighted upcoming visits by European leaders, including Chancellor Scholz, to China as a potential avenue for stabilizing bilateral relations. He cautioned that European dissatisfaction with the US doesn’t automatically translate to improved relations with China.

The Ukraine War: China’s Position & Reluctance to Intervene

A key point of contention discussed was China’s position on the Ukraine war. Wang Yi consistently avoided direct answers when pressed by Wolfgang Ischinger (Chairman of the Munich Security Conference) about potential pressure on Russia to end the conflict, stating it was “basically nothing to do with us.” Dawei explained that China’s foreign policy approach doesn’t typically involve pressuring other countries, preferring private persuasion. However, this explanation was challenged, citing China’s assertive actions towards Japan and the Philippines in the South China Sea, demonstrating a willingness to apply pressure in bilateral disputes.

Dawei defended China’s position, stating it is not a direct party to the war and maintains trade relations with both Russia and Ukraine. He pointed out that China is Ukraine’s largest trading partner and that Ukrainian forces utilize Chinese drone parts, a fact he felt was underreported in Europe. Despite claiming adherence to international law – Wang Yi referenced this in his speech – China’s close economic and diplomatic ties with Russia were seen as supporting, rather than constraining, Russia’s actions. China released a “12 points” position paper on the war emphasizing sovereignty and territorial integrity, but Dawei acknowledged the limited prospects for unilateral or bilateral mediation without the involvement of the US, Europe, and the UN. He noted China was not invited to US-led mediation efforts.

Economic Weaponization & the Rare Earth Dilemma

The conversation shifted to the weaponization of trade, specifically China’s dominance in the supply of rare earth minerals crucial for clean energy technologies. China recently implemented export controls on these minerals, raising concerns about potential leverage over international supply chains. Dawei framed this as a “tit-for-tat” response to existing US high-tech product restrictions on China, emphasizing that China hasn’t used the controls, merely established the rules. He clarified that these controls weren’t specifically targeted at any country.

However, the discussion highlighted European anxieties about China potentially using this leverage to exert pressure. Dawei acknowledged the “neutral deterrence” dynamic, noting that China has already experienced economic restrictions (e.g., Huawei’s exclusion from Europe, restrictions on chip purchases) for eight years. He differentiated export controls from market entry restrictions, citing the limitations on Western social media platforms in China.

Decoupling & the Changing Global Landscape

The discussion acknowledged a broader trend of “weaponization or securitization of economic relationships.” Dawei stated that China has already been experiencing this for years, citing examples like the Huawei ban and chip restrictions. He suggested this is a new reality, and that the globalized world has changed. The conversation touched on concerns about forced joint ventures in China leading to intellectual property theft.

Taiwan & Potential Shifts in US Policy

The potential for a shift in US policy towards Taiwan under a future Trump administration was also discussed. Speculation exists that Trump might signal a change in the US stance on Taiwanese independence, potentially stating the US actively opposes it – a departure from current policy. Dawei acknowledged this possibility, stating China would “urge the US side to say something positively” from its perspective. However, he tempered expectations, citing the complexities of US politics and the potential for Congressional pushback.

He also raised the long-term possibility of shifting public opinion in Taiwan, noting that a majority of Taiwanese identified as Chinese 30-40 years ago, suggesting that opinions could evolve again. The discussion touched on concerns about potential “re-education” efforts in Taiwan, drawing parallels to Hong Kong, but Dawei defended the concept of national education and patriotism as universal practices.

Conclusion

The discussion revealed a complex and increasingly competitive relationship between the US and China, with Europe caught in the middle. While opportunities exist for China to strengthen ties with Europe, significant obstacles remain, particularly regarding the Ukraine war and differing economic interests. The weaponization of trade and the future of Taiwan represent key areas of tension. The conversation underscored a shift towards a less globalized and more securitized world, where economic relationships are increasingly viewed through a lens of strategic competition and national security. The potential for shifts in US policy under a future Trump administration adds further uncertainty to the geopolitical landscape.