How balloon-borne sensors are giving new insights into space weather | REUTERS

Key Concepts

• Space Weather: Eruptions from the sun (solar flares, coronal mass ejections) that release high-energy particles and magnetic fields, impacting Earth.
• SARAH (Solar Activity Radiation Monitor): A radiation monitor developed by the University of Surrey, designed to be attached to meteorological balloons.
• Met Office: Britain's national weather service, collaborating with the University of Surrey on space weather forecasting.
• Solar Activity Cycle: The approximately 11-year cycle of the sun's magnetic activity, which influences the frequency and intensity of space weather events.
• Ground Level Enhancement (GLE): A significant increase in atmospheric radiation detected at ground level, often caused by powerful solar particle events.
• Radiation Dose Rate: A measure of the amount of radiation absorbed by a material or organism over a period, used for radiation protection.
• Modern Infrastructure: Critical systems like power grids, satellite operations, aircraft navigation, and microelectronics, which are vulnerable to space weather.

Space Weather and its Impact

Space weather refers to disturbances originating from the sun, such as solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), which eject high-energy particles and magnetic fields towards Earth. These events have the potential to cause significant disruptions to modern technologies and infrastructure. The transcript highlights the vulnerability of systems like aircraft, internet domains, driverless automobiles, power grids, and satellite operations to these solar phenomena.

Collaboration for Improved Forecasting

Scientists at the University of Surrey's space center are collaborating with Britain's Met Office to enhance space weather forecasting. This partnership aims to mitigate the risks associated with solar storms.

The SARAH Radiation Monitor

• Purpose: SARAH is a radiation monitor designed to measure the radiation environment in the upper atmosphere.
• Deployment: It is intended to be attached to standard meteorological balloons, similar to those used by the Met Office for measuring atmospheric pressure and wind speed.
• Functionality: SARAH monitors incoming particles by counting them. It then converts these counts into a radiation dose rate.
• Application: This dose rate information is crucial for radiation protection purposes, analogous to how radiation levels are monitored in hospitals during X-ray procedures.
• Developer: Dr. Ben Cluer, a space weather model and system developer at the University of Surrey, is involved in its development.

The Sun's Activity Cycle and Increased Risk

The transcript notes that space weather events are expected to become more frequent and intense around the current peak of the sun's 11-year activity cycle. This cyclical nature of solar activity poses an increased risk to Earth.

Historical Context and Modern Vulnerability

• Past Events: The last major space weather event occurred approximately 20 years ago.
• Technological Shift: The technology prevalent 20 years ago was less reliant on the microelectronics that are ubiquitous in modern infrastructure.
• Current Threat: A significant solar storm today could potentially disable critical infrastructure due to the increased reliance on sensitive electronic components. The goal is to prepare the world for such an event to prevent widespread disruption.

Proof of Concept and Data Collection

• Initial Launches: SARAH radiation sensors underwent initial launches to an altitude of nearly 20 miles on October 17th as a proof of concept.
• Significant Solar Event: On November 11th, a powerful solar flare triggered a significant event. UK scientists reported it as one of the strongest ground level enhancements of atmospheric radiation observed in about 20 years.
• First-of-its-Kind Data: Met Office teams were able to deploy SARAH sensors rapidly during this event and collect unprecedented data.
• Data Analysis: Christa Hammond, Senior Space Weather Manager at the Met Office, stated that the collected data is still being analyzed but early indications are promising. She emphasized that this is the first time such data has been gathered, making it invaluable for verifying and improving space weather models.

Verifying Models and Understanding the Radiation Environment

The primary objective of collecting data from events like the one on November 11th is to verify and validate existing space weather models. This process ensures that scientists have the most accurate understanding of the radiation environment and can thus improve the accuracy of their forecasts and predictions.

Conclusion

The collaboration between the University of Surrey and the Met Office, utilizing the SARAH radiation monitor, represents a crucial step in understanding and forecasting space weather. The recent collection of data during a significant ground level enhancement event is expected to provide invaluable insights for improving predictive models and safeguarding modern infrastructure from the potentially devastating impacts of solar storms, especially as the sun approaches its activity peak.