How al Qaeda Stands on the Brink of Toppling This Government | WSJ

Key Concepts

• Jama'at Nusrat al Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM): An Al Qaeda branch operating in the Sahel region, formed in 2017 by Iyad ag Ghali.
• Sahel: The transitional zone between the Sahara Desert and the Sudanian savanna in Africa, currently an epicenter of global terrorism.
• Iyad ag Ghali: The leader of JNIM, a former tribal leader who transitioned to hardline Islam and united three jihadist groups.
• Wagner Group: Russian private military contractors who previously operated in Mali.
• Scorched Earth Policy: A military tactic involving the destruction of anything that might be useful to an enemy.
• Asymmetrical Insurgency: Warfare characterized by a lack of conventional military parity, often involving guerrilla tactics and targeting civilian infrastructure.
• Emirate: A political territory ruled by an emir.

JNIM's Resurgence and Strategy in Mali

The New Face of Al Qaeda and the Threat to Bamako

The transcript highlights the significant resurgence of Al Qaeda, specifically through its branch Jama'at Nusrat al Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM), which is now posing a direct threat to the capital city of Bamako, Mali. JNIM's actions, including choking off fuel and food supplies, have led to residents scrambling and the US embassy evacuating. The potential fall of Bamako is presented as a "real possibility," which could lead to JNIM dominating the entire country of Mali.

JNIM: Structure, Reach, and Leadership

JNIM is described as having approximately 6,000 fighters spread across several Sahelian countries, including Mali. The group maintains deep connections with both the Taliban and Al Qaeda Central in Pakistan and Afghanistan, despite the physical distance. The central figure connecting these entities is Iyad ag Ghali, who transitioned from a secular lifestyle to hardline Islam over two decades ago. In 2017, he unified three existing jihadist groups under the JNIM banner, pledging allegiance to Al Qaeda. This unification marked the beginning of a new wave of insurgency across West Africa, with the Sahel becoming the "epicenter of global terrorism."

Factors Contributing to JNIM's Growth

The rise of jihadist movements in the Sahel is attributed to "issues of governance generally in Africa." The transcript notes that after Al Qaeda became "largely irrelevant in the Arab-Muslim world, it grew exponentially in Africa."

The Impact of Western Intervention and Coups

French forces, with US support, intervened in Mali starting in 2014, initially pushing back Al Qaeda militants. However, the group was never fully defeated, only contained. This prolonged conflict and perceived lack of progress led to frustration among local military officers, culminating in a wave of coups across the region, beginning in Mali in 2020. The new military juntas subsequently expelled Western forces.

Mali's Alliance with Russia and the Wagner Group

In Mali, the military junta, led by Army General Assimi Goita, turned to Russia for support, engaging the Wagner Group mercenaries. The strategy employed by these forces involved a "scorched earth policy," aiming to flush out Al Qaeda by spreading terror and making it difficult for the group to operate. However, this approach proved counterproductive, leading to an increase in Al Qaeda's support as villagers sought protection from them.

JNIM's Financial and Territorial Gains

Concurrently, JNIM has been actively seizing gold mines, extorting villagers, and profiting from drug and human trafficking. These illicit activities have provided the financial resources to gain ground within Mali's vast territory.

The Withdrawal of Wagner and JNIM's Offensive

The situation escalated when Wagner mercenaries pulled out and Russia agreed to send a new defense ministry force. This new Russian force is described as lacking experience in the terrain and being inefficient. JNIM capitalized on this weakness by attacking convoys and acquiring a significant amount of weapons. These seized weapons have empowered JNIM to launch attacks aimed at the capital.

The Siege of Bamako: Strategy and Impact

Instead of a direct assault, JNIM has opted to besiege Bamako. As a landlocked nation reliant on imports, Mali's supply lines are vulnerable. JNIM's strategic attacks on fuel tankers have crippled these crucial lifelines, leading to a severe fuel shortage. This lack of fuel incapacitates the Malian military, preventing them from utilizing their aircraft and helicopters.

The consequences for residents of Bamako are dire: days-long waits for fuel, widespread blackouts, school closures, and soaring food prices in a country already facing food insecurity.

Civilian Casualties and Shifting Allegiances

Statistics indicate that the majority of civilian deaths are attributed to Wagner forces, the very group intended for counter-terrorism. The Malian military and their allied militias are responsible for the second-highest number of civilian casualties, followed by the Islamic State and then Al Qaeda. This grim reality has led some civilians to believe that joining "the bad guys" (referring to Russian and Malian military allies) might be a more survivable option than facing them.

JNIM's Tactics and Long-Term Goals

Malian security forces are attempting to counter JNIM using drone strikes and raids. However, JNIM militants are agile, often utilizing motorbikes and leveraging their control over rural areas for cover. Their strategy is not necessarily to engage in direct urban warfare but to create a "spiderweb" surrounding cities, aiming to leave the regime to "crumble like it happened in Syria, like it happened in Afghanistan." The ultimate goal is a collapse of the government from within, allowing JNIM to enter "without a shot."

Diplomatic Overtures and JNIM's Ultimatum

Facing pressure, Mali's military leaders are reportedly considering turning to the United States for increased cooperation. However, the junta is also contending with an ISIS affiliate and separatist forces in the north. JNIM has issued an ultimatum to General Goita: either implement strict Islamic law nationwide or relinquish power. This presents a choice between a political settlement that incorporates hardline Islamic law, effectively surrendering ideologically and socially to the jihadists, or facing continued conflict.

The Risk of an Expanding Emirate

While some analysts question JNIM's capacity to govern, their efforts to establish an emirate are expanding into neighboring Burkina Faso, Niger, and beyond. The transcript raises concerns about the future risk this expansion poses to other regions. Drawing a parallel to Al Qaeda's past reliance on the Taliban in Afghanistan, the video speculates on what might emerge from Mali in the coming years. The immediate focus for JNIM is consolidating control over territory and molding it according to their religious vision. Only after achieving security in their controlled areas do they typically begin to target international interests.