How a Middle Eastern superpower is fuelling the Sudan war

Key Concepts

• Sudan Conflict: The ongoing war in Sudan, primarily between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF).
• Al Fasher Atrocities: Recent mass killings and systematic violence perpetrated by the RSF in the city of Al Fasher.
• RSF (Rapid Support Forces): A paramilitary group, formerly a militia loyal to Omar al-Bashir, now a major combatant in the Sudanese civil war.
• SAF (Sudanese Armed Forces): The regular army of Sudan.
• Omar al-Bashir: Former military dictator of Sudan, overthrown in 2019.
• Darfur Genocide: Historical atrocities in Darfur, which the current conflict is seen as a continuation of.
• UAE (United Arab Emirates): Accused of providing significant military support to the RSF.
• External Support: The role of regional and international actors in fueling the conflict.
• Impunity: The lack of accountability for war crimes and atrocities.
• Balkanization: The potential fragmentation of Sudan into multiple smaller, unstable states.
• Emergency Response Rooms/Mutual Aid Groups: Local civilian initiatives providing support and protection.

Summary of the Conflict in Sudan and the Al Fasher Atrocities

This discussion delves into the escalating conflict in Sudan, focusing on the recent horrific events in Al Fasher and the broader geopolitical factors driving the war. The conversation highlights the systematic nature of the atrocities, the role of external actors, and the international community's apparent inaction.

The Al Fasher Atrocities and the Nature of the Violence

The fall of Al Fasher to the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has brought to light a new wave of systematic killings, particularly of unarmed civilians. The scale of the violence is corroborated by numerous videos filmed by RSF fighters themselves, often in a casual, "selfie-mode" manner, demonstrating a profound sense of impunity. These videos depict ransacked hospitals, scores of bodies, and summary executions. The World Health Organization chief reported that 460 patients and their companions were killed at the city's last maternity hospital. The Sudan Doctors' Network described the scene as a "human slaughterhouse," with bloodstains visible even from space.

The emergence of atrocities follows a predictable pattern: initial warnings, followed by fragmentary eyewitness reports, then a flood of consistent testimony, and finally, photographic and video evidence. The telecommunications blackout in Sudan since February 2024 makes information gathering difficult, with reliance on aid organizations and neighborhood resistance committees, often accessing the internet via Starlink, which can also be controlled by the RSF.

Historical Context and the Genesis of the Conflict

The war in Sudan, which broke out in 2023, has roots in the popular pro-democracy revolution that overthrew Omar al-Bashir in 2019. This revolution was a joint effort by the regular army (SAF) and the RSF, then a militia nominally loyal to Bashir. Both forces initially agreed to a democratic transition but soon sidelined civilians and established their own military dictatorship, eventually falling out and engaging in armed conflict in April 2023.

The current conflict is seen as a continuation of the violence witnessed in Darfur 20 years prior, which was characterized by systematic atrocities amounting to genocide. However, the RSF has evolved from a loosely organized group to a well-resourced, well-funded, and well-equipped paramilitary force, receiving significant support from regional countries, particularly the United Arab Emirates (UAE). This evolution has made them a formidable military entity, capable of sophisticated weaponry while retaining a locally motivated approach to violence, often driven by decades-old grievances.

The RSF Fighter's Motivation and Command Structure

The motivations behind an RSF fighter participating in a massacre are multifaceted. It's described as a combination of factors:

• Franchise Model: The RSF operates as a "franchise" where pastoralist communities "buy in," receiving a gun and uniform to pursue local interests and settle scores based on historical grievances, while also fighting for a national cause.
• Pent-up Frustration: After facing fierce resistance for over 550 days in their pursuit of Al Fasher, the RSF fighters experienced significant pent-up frustration, which manifested in depravity upon capturing the city.
• Lack of Training and Command Control: Many RSF soldiers are young, likely not well-trained, and concerns exist about the RSF's level of command and control over its troops, leading to an entity that is "almost completely unleashed."

The Military Battlefield and External Support

The conflict is characterized by tactical and operational fluctuations but lacks seismic strategic shifts. The RSF initially captured large swathes of the country, including the capital Khartoum, though the SAF later recaptured it. Recent RSF advances in Darfur and Kordofan have been met with SAF offensives in the south and center. The current situation is described as a fluid yet static status quo, with neither side possessing the capability to militarily defeat the other.

A significant aspect of the conflict is the role of external powers, particularly the UAE. Reports from US intelligence agencies and the Wall Street Journal indicate an increased flow of weapons from the UAE to the RSF, including advanced Chinese-made drones, small arms, heavy machine guns, vehicles, artillery, mortars, and ammunition. British equipment supplied to the UAE has also been found in the hands of the RSF, as have Bulgarian mortar rounds.

While the UAE denies these allegations, the influx of sophisticated hardware has made a significant tactical and operational difference, particularly in urban and rural warfare. However, the recapture of Khartoum by the SAF was primarily driven by a massive ramp-up in manpower, with the army increasingly relying on various militia groups and community self-defense forces. The RSF's own coalition is described as a "franchising operation," leading to fragmentation and disorganization, and overstretched supply lines, which allowed for key breakthroughs by the SAF.

The UAE's Involvement and Strategic Goals

The UAE's involvement in Sudan is described as significant and dating back to the outset of the conflict. Their support for the RSF is channeled through supply lines via Somalia, Libya, and Chad. The UAE's foreign policy, characterized by a preference for supporting separatist or non-state actors, aims to assert control over countries that have proven "unwieldy."

The UAE's motivations are seen as a combination of:

• Economic Interests: Access to the Red Sea, arable land, and Sudan's gold production, which is crucial for Dubai's gold market.
• Geopolitical Ambitions: Asserting influence in the Horn of Africa, which the Gulf states view as their strategic depth and a playground for competition, particularly between the UAE and Saudi Arabia. The UAE seeks to challenge Saudi Arabia's regional dominance.
• Challenging Dollar Dominance: A broader anxiety about de-dollarization and the rise of alternative currencies. The UAE's investments in data, gold, strategic real estate (ports), land, and oil are seen as efforts to buttress a potential new currency.

The West's Inaction and the Erosion of International Norms

The current situation in Sudan starkly contrasts with the international attention garnered during the Darfur genocide in the 2000s, when Western leaders and celebrities actively decried the atrocities. Now, despite the fall of Al Fasher and ongoing massacres, there is a conspicuous absence of Western intervention, peacekeeping forces, or significant diplomatic pressure.

Several reasons are cited for this inaction:

• Past Failures: Previous UN missions in Sudan have not been massively successful in enforcing ceasefires and safeguarding civilian lives.
• Lack of Public/Political Attention: There is very little public or political attention devoted to Sudan in Western countries, including the UK.
• Western Withdrawal: A broader withdrawal of Western, particularly American, foreign policy engagement has led to more muscular foreign policies by regional powers like the UAE.
• Financial Dependence: The UN and other regional bodies (African Union, IGAD) are increasingly reliant on Gulf funding, making it difficult to criticize or hold Gulf states accountable.
• "Shared Interests" and Teflon Status: The UAE's significant real estate portfolios, oil trade, commercial deals, and weapons purchases in Western countries, coupled with their role as a regional anchor for Israeli security (Abraham Accords), grant them a "teflon status" where they are not held accountable for atrocities.
• Prioritization of Other Issues: Sudan has fallen through the cracks, deemed less important than other regional files like Palestine, leading to insufficient public attention to pressure Western governments to act.

The Future of the Conflict and Potential Outcomes

The conflict is likely to continue with increasing civilian deaths, further militarization of the state, and the sophisticated weapons being drawn into the theater of war. The support from countries backing either side is expected to continue without significant international censure.

The potential outcomes include:

• Balkanization of Sudan: The country could fragment into multiple unstable states, with four existing centers of control (SAF, RSF, SPLM in the southwest, and SLM in Darfur). This would create unruly, conflict-ridden states in a region already marred by jihadist violence, extremism, ethnic strife, and genocide.
• Continued Impunity: Peace agreements in Sudan have historically lacked implementation of transitional justice and accountability mechanisms, a pattern that is expected to continue. The RSF's offer of an internal inquiry is seen as a way to avoid genuine accountability.
• Gamer System: Conflict parties, particularly the RSF, have learned to "game the system" by using international meetings and peace talks as political cover for enacting atrocities.

The Role of Local Initiatives and the Call for Action

Amidst the widespread violence, local groups like the "emergency response rooms" and mutual aid groups are working on a voluntary basis to support their communities, provide food, and offer safety for women subjected to rape. These groups are crucial for rebuilding the social fabric and require support, especially after the US has cut off aid.

The discussion concludes with a call for the West to exert leverage over its Gulf allies, threatening sanctions and cutting off relationships if they do not cease their support for the RSF. Anything less is seen as the West co-signing on the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people in Sudan. Ending the war requires a proper ceasefire and a political process that addresses the root causes of the conflict, including the military's continued rule and the cycle of armed rebellion.