‘Historic moment’: One Nation predicted to win Farrer by-election ‘all day long’

Key Concepts

• One Nation: A populist political party gaining significant traction in regional areas.
• Protest Vote: A vote cast to express dissatisfaction with established political parties rather than support for a specific candidate.
• Primary Vote: The initial vote count for a candidate before the distribution of preferences.
• Teal Independents: Candidates often funded by groups like Climate 200, focusing on climate and integrity issues.
• Negative Gearing: A tax policy currently under debate as a potential tool to address housing affordability for younger voters.
• Core Flute: Corrugated plastic signs used for political campaigning.

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1. Main Topics and Political Context

The discussion centers on a high-stakes by-election in the seat of Farrer. The panel analyzes the shifting political landscape, characterized by a decline in faith in the major parties (Liberal and Labor) and the rise of One Nation.

• The "One Nation" Surge: Analysts predict a historic victory for One Nation, with expectations of a primary vote in the 30–38% range. Joel Fitzgibbon notes that One Nation is becoming more professional, better funded, and is attracting higher-quality candidates.
• The "System is Failing" Narrative: Focus group research indicates that voters, particularly the youth, feel the current political system is failing them. This sentiment is driving the protest vote.
• Budgetary Implications: The government is reportedly framing its upcoming budget specifically to address the threat posed by this voter dissatisfaction, including potential adjustments to negative gearing to appeal to younger demographics.

2. Candidate Analysis and Regional Dynamics

• David Farley (One Nation): Described as a "universally well-regarded" candidate who has successfully engaged with primary producers and longtime Liberal supporters.
• Brad Robinson (National Party): A former Army Colonel, praised by Peter Kredland as an "impressive candidate," though analysts believe he will struggle to reach the top two.
• The "Teal" Factor: Milthorp, a candidate supported by Climate 200, has significantly outspent One Nation (reportedly 2-to-1). There is speculation that the Coalition may prefer a strong performance from the Teal candidate to split the vote and prevent a One Nation victory.
• The "Ghost of Susan Ley": The historical influence and internal branch dynamics associated with Susan Ley are cited as a potential hurdle for the Coalition in this seat.

3. Key Arguments and Perspectives

• The Protest Vote: Joel Fitzgibbon draws a parallel between the Farrer by-election and the UK council elections involving Nigel Farage and Reform UK. He argues that voters are "mad as hell" and are using these elections to punish the political establishment.
• Strategic Missteps: Fitzgibbon criticizes the National Party’s tactic of labeling David Farley as a "Labor member in disguise." He argues this is ineffective, especially given that 15% of the 2025 Labor vote is currently "up for grabs" and could easily migrate to One Nation.
• Professionalization of Populism: A recurring theme is that One Nation is no longer a fringe movement but a sophisticated political entity, bolstered by high-profile figures like Barnaby Joyce.

4. Notable Quotes

• Joel Fitzgibbon: "They’re coming with baseball bats and they’re coming for those who they see have been running the show for a long, long time. They’re as mad as hell. They’re not going to take it anymore."
• Andrew Clell: "The focus group research is telling them a story of 'the system is failing us'."

5. Synthesis and Conclusion

The Farrer by-election serves as a bellwether for broader Australian political trends. The consensus among the panel is that the electorate is experiencing a profound shift away from traditional party loyalty. The rise of One Nation is not merely a regional anomaly but a symptom of widespread disillusionment with the status quo. Regardless of the specific margin of victory, the result is expected to "rock both sides of politics" and force a recalibration of national policy, particularly regarding how major parties address the economic anxieties of younger voters and regional communities.