Have drones been a gamechanger in the Ukraine-Russia war?

Key Concepts

• Shahed Drones: Inexpensive, mass-produced Iranian drones, upgraded by Russia with jet engines (Juran 3/Shahed 238). Primarily used as suicide drones.
• FPV Drones (First Person View): Small, conceptually new drones that dominate airspace below 2,000 ft. They are remotely piloted and can follow targets into cover, creating a psychological impact.
• Battlefield Dynamics: Drones have significantly impacted ground movement, making it difficult and dangerous for soldiers and armored vehicles.
• Fluid Front Line: The war has devolved into localized, intense ground combat with dispersed pockets of troops due to drone dominance.
• Logistical Challenges: Drones complicate supply lines, with troops often dropped into forward positions with limited supplies, relying on drones for resupply.
• Stalemate and Exhaustion: The current situation suggests a slow, grinding advance by Russia with limited gains, while Ukraine is holding its ground but facing troop and ammunition shortages, leading to exhaustion.

Drones as a Battlefield Game Changer

Professor Michael Clark discusses the significant impact of drones on the war in Ukraine, categorizing their influence into two main respects: one established and one conceptually new.

1. Shahed Drones (Established Technology, Mass Application):

• Description: These are very cheap Iranian drones, costing approximately $20,000 to $50,000 each. Their key advantage lies in their mass production capability.
• Russian Upgrade: Russia has upgraded these drones with jet engines, referring to them as Juran 3 or, in Iranian terms, Shahed 238.
• Operational Concept: The primary strategy is to deploy large numbers of these drones to conduct various aerial missions.
• Functionality: While not conceptually new, their sheer numbers allow them to perform tasks previously handled by manned aircraft.
• Suicide Drones: In their current application, Shahed drones are largely used as suicide drones, meaning they typically undertake a single mission and detonate upon impact.

2. FPV Drones (Conceptually New Technology):

• Description: These are small, first-person view drones that have emerged as a conceptually new element on the battlefield.
• Airspace Dominance: They effectively dominate the airspace below approximately 2,000 feet.
• Impact on Ground Troops: This dominance makes it extremely difficult and dangerous for soldiers to move around on the battlefield.
• Comparison to Artillery: FPV drones perform a similar function to artillery shells by pinning down the enemy. However, they are considered "cleverer" because they are actively controlled.
• Targeting Capability: Unlike artillery, which has a fixed trajectory, an FPV drone can be guided by an operator to follow soldiers into their dugouts and explode, creating a "different level of terror."
• Psychological Warfare: The distinctive "buzz" of these drones instills fear, as soldiers worry about being targeted and followed.
• Defense: The most basic defense against these drones is a shotgun, used to try and shoot them down when they are close (around 50 feet away), but this is considered a last resort.

Current Battlefield Situation and Dynamics

Professor Clark outlines the current state of the war, heavily influenced by drone warfare:

• Difficulty in Ground Movement: The widespread use of drones has made ground movement "very difficult" and has rendered the movement of armored vehicles "almost impossible" except under conditions of "great danger."
• Fluid Front Line: This has contributed to a "very fluid front line" characterized by dispersed pockets of troops, with areas of control ranging from 5 km to 40 km wide in some sectors.
• Interpersonal and Vicious Combat: The war has devolved into highly personal and brutal ground combat between soldiers.
• Logistical Challenges: Troops are often deployed to forward positions with limited food and ammunition, relying on drones for resupply after 72 to 120 hours. This resupply is not always successful.
• Russian Advance: While Russian forces are "slogging forward," their progress is slow, with limited gains even when pushing hard, such as in the recent efforts against Prosk and Dorilia.
• Winter Stalemate Prediction: Professor Clark's personal assessment is that there will be "no big movement on the ground during now till the end of the winter." He believes Russia is unlikely to mount a "strategic offensive."
• Ukrainian Defense and Exhaustion: Ukraine is holding its ground "pretty well" but is facing significant challenges:
  • Overmatched in Numbers: They are outnumbered by Russian forces.
  • Troop Shortages: They are running out of troops.
  • Ammunition Improvement: While ammunition supply has improved, it is not a complete solution.
  • Exhaustion: Armies require rest and rehabilitation to renew themselves, and Ukrainian forces are becoming "exhausted" from continuous fighting.

Conclusion

The war in Ukraine has been significantly reshaped by drone technology. The mass deployment of Shahed drones and the novel capabilities of FPV drones have created a highly challenging environment for ground operations, impacting troop movement, logistics, and psychological well-being. This has led to a war of attrition with a fluid front line, where localized, intense combat prevails. While Russia is making slow advances, a major strategic offensive is deemed unlikely in the near future. Ukraine is demonstrating resilience in defense but is facing critical issues of troop numbers and exhaustion, despite some improvements in ammunition supply.