Has President Trump lost patience with Putin as he sanctions Russian oil companies? |BBC Ukrainecast

Key Concepts

• Failed Summits and Diplomacy: Recent diplomatic efforts, including a planned meeting between Presidents Trump and Putin in Budapest, have been called off or failed to yield breakthroughs.
• US Sanctions on Russia: The US has imposed new sanctions targeting Russia's two largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, as a pressure tactic.
• Intensified Russian Attacks: Russia has intensified attacks on Ukraine, particularly targeting the energy system, leading to civilian casualties and widespread blackouts.
• Nuclear Deterrence: Russia has conducted nuclear drills, which are seen as a show of force and a deterrent rather than an immediate threat of use.
• Ceasefire Negotiations and Territorial Disputes: Discussions around a ceasefire are ongoing, with Ukraine emphasizing that it will not concede territory. Russia's stated goal remains full control of the Donbas region.
• Ukrainian Political Landscape: President Zelenskyy retains significant political capital, and any territorial concessions would require a referendum, which is currently prohibited under martial law.
• European Union's Response to Frozen Assets: The EU is considering a plan to use interest from frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine, a move Russia has condemned.
• Ukrainian Infrastructure Attacks: Ukraine has not targeted Russian energy infrastructure, citing political risks and a focus on military targets.
• Intractable Russian Stance: A consistent theme is Moscow's unyielding position on its core objectives, making diplomatic progress difficult.

Summary

Diplomatic Setbacks and Shifting US Policy

The past week has been marked by significant diplomatic failures. A planned summit between Presidents Trump and Putin in Budapest was indefinitely postponed, following a tense meeting between President Zelenskyy and President Trump that yielded no breakthroughs regarding the potential transfer of Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine. This diplomatic frustration appears to have contributed to the Trump administration's decision to announce new sanctions against Russia's two largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil. President Trump stated, "I just felt it was time. We've waited a long time." He also expressed his ongoing frustration with the lack of progress in his conversations with Vladimir Putin, noting, "every time I speak with Vladimir, I have good conversations and then uh they don't go anywhere. They just don't go anywhere." These sanctions, targeting companies that collectively produce 3.1 million barrels of oil per day, are the first direct sanctions imposed by the US on Russia's energy sector since Trump took office.

Intensified Russian Attacks on Ukraine

Concurrently, Russian attacks on Ukraine have significantly intensified, with a brutal focus on the country's energy infrastructure as winter approaches. These attacks have resulted in civilian casualties, including a mother, her 12-year-old daughter, and a six-month-old girl killed in a drone strike outside Kyiv. In Kharkiv, Ukraine's second-largest city, a kindergarten was hit by three Shahed drones, though children were unharmed due to being in a bomb shelter. Cities like Chernihiv have experienced complete blackouts following massive strikes on power stations.

The Budapest Summit's Demise and US Sanctions Rationale

The much-anticipated Budapest summit between Presidents Trump and Putin, initially generating considerable excitement after a 2.5-hour phone call, ultimately fell apart. Russian officials, including Lavrov, downplayed the planned nature of the meeting, suggesting it was difficult to postpone something that wasn't scheduled. President Trump initially indicated the summit would occur within two weeks, but this now seems unlikely. The imposition of new US sanctions is seen by some as a consequence of this diplomatic frustration and a demonstration that President Trump's patience has limits, leading to real-world consequences for Russia.

Analysis of New US Sanctions

The new US sanctions targeting Rosneft and Lukoil are considered "harder biting" than previous measures due to their focus on Russia's largest oil companies. However, their effectiveness is questioned, as 80% of Russian crude oil is purchased by India and China. The key uncertainty is whether these countries will adhere to the sanctions. While India has previously faced secondary tariffs from the US and may be more inclined to comply, China's potential disregard could render the sanctions "pretty much meaningless." The symbolic impact is also significant, marking the first direct sanctions action by the Trump administration in this regard. These sanctions were announced a week after the UK imposed identical measures, suggesting a coordinated approach.

Russian Nuclear Drills and Deterrence

In response to questions about Russia conducting nuclear drills, it's explained that this is a common tactic for Russia to "rattle its sabers" and showcase its nuclear arsenal. Nuclear weapons primarily serve as a deterrent, intended to prevent enemies from taking significant action. The drills, involving missile launches from submarines and land, with President Putin's participation, convey a message of capability and potential use. It is emphasized that NATO also conducts nuclear deterrent exercises, and the significance lies in the timing and interpretation of Russia's actions.

Ceasefire Negotiations and Territorial Standoff

Discussions around a ceasefire are ongoing, with President Zelenskyy consistently advocating for one. The primary question is how to achieve it, with the "line of contact" or front line being the most plausible basis. President Zelenskyy has stated Ukraine is "prepared to engage in diplomacy, but not at the cost of withdrawing from territories we currently control." This indicates no readiness for concessions. However, there is speculation that Ukraine might be facing pressure from allies to acknowledge Russian control over occupied territories.

Russian Objectives and Ukrainian Resistance

From the Russian perspective, a stated goal of the war is to gain full control of the Donbas region. Russia has already annexed these regions through referendums not recognized internationally. This objective presents a significant challenge for Ukraine, as thousands of soldiers have fought to defend these territories. Furthermore, President Zelenskyy has warned that relinquishing territory could allow Russia to use it as a springboard for future attacks. The gulf between Ukraine and Russia on this issue, and many others, makes current discussions highly contentious.

President Zelenskyy's Political Capital and Territorial Concessions

President Zelenskyy continues to hold substantial political capital in Ukraine, with a support rating around 60%. However, the idea of him convincing the Ukrainian parliament (Rada) to give up territory is considered a "non-starter." Any changes to Ukraine's borders would require a referendum, which is prohibited under martial law. The Ukrainian people's strong resistance since 2014 and 2022, forming volunteer battalions, suggests they would not accept territorial concessions. The human cost of such concessions, leaving civilians behind in occupied territories, is also a critical consideration. Suggestions from Washington and European capitals are unlikely to succeed without concrete actions to compel Russia's acceptance.

European Union's Stance on Frozen Russian Assets

A significant development involves the European Union's consideration of a plan to utilize interest from frozen Russian assets. This complex proposal involves the EU borrowing funds held by financial institutions in Brussels and providing them to Ukraine, backed by a collective IOU from member states. Ukraine would receive approximately 140 billion euros, potentially covering its expenses for a couple of years. Russia has vehemently opposed this, with its ambassador to Italy calling it "theft of the century." The plan requires the European Commission to establish a legal framework and would likely not come into effect until early next year. This initiative has gained traction, with key countries like Germany and Belgium, where the financial institution Euroclear is based, swinging behind it.

Ukraine's Restraint on Targeting Russian Infrastructure

Regarding Ukraine's decision not to target Russian power stations and utilities, two primary reasons are suggested: either they lack the capability due to strong Russian air defenses, or they are deliberately avoiding such actions to prevent being portrayed as a country that harms Russian civilians, mirroring Russia's own criticized tactics. Ukraine's imperative is to target elements that fuel the war machine, such as oil refineries and storage facilities, which has been reasonably successful. However, these strikes indirectly affect Russian civilians through rising petrol prices and shortages. The readiness and strategic deployment of long-range missiles like the Flamingo and Neptune are also factors.

Outlook and Persistent Russian Stance

The week has seen a cyclical pattern of diplomatic discussions and setbacks, with little perceived progress since August. While talks are not abandoned, the feeling is that efforts often revert to the initial stalemate. A Ukrainian MP expressed a lack of optimism due to the persistent feeling that the situation will return to its starting point. The core issue remains Moscow's "intractable stance" and consistent goals, which have not wavered despite various diplomatic overtures. President Zelenskyy's observation that Russia only engaged in diplomacy when faced with the threat of long-range missiles, such as Tomahawks, highlights the perceived need for tangible pressure to elicit a response. The prospect of future developments is acknowledged, but likely to be preceded by extensive back-and-forth negotiations.