Happy New Year Bitcoin!

2025 Crypto Market Review & 2026 Outlook

Key Concepts:

• Four-Year Cycle: The historically observed pattern of Bitcoin price movements following the halving event, typically involving a bull run followed by a bear market.
• Post-Halving Year: The year immediately following a Bitcoin halving event.
• QT (Quantitative Tightening): A contractionary monetary policy where a central bank reduces the amount of money in circulation.
• RSI (Relative Strength Index): A momentum indicator used in technical analysis to measure the magnitude of recent price changes to evaluate overbought or oversold conditions.
• Midterm Year: The year following the post-halving year, often characterized by consolidation or bear market conditions.
• Altcoins: Cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin.
• 50-Week Moving Average: A technical indicator representing the average price of an asset over the past 50 weeks, used to identify trends and potential support/resistance levels.
• Apathy vs. Euphoria: Describes market sentiment – apathy indicating low interest and muted price action, while euphoria signifies high excitement and speculative bubbles.

I. 2025 Performance & The Broken Cycle Narrative

The year 2025 saw Bitcoin close with a negative return of approximately 6%, marking the first red candle in a post-halving year (with the exception of Bitcoin’s launch period where data was limited). This has led to discussions about whether the traditional four-year cycle is “broken.” While Bitcoin did experience a peak in the fourth quarter of the post-halving year – consistent with previous cycles – the overall year’s performance deviated from expectations. The speaker notes that last cycle also saw a drop into the end of the year, but ultimately finished green. Quarterly returns show a progressively worsening trend in Q4 of post-halving years: 421% in 2013, 220% in 2017, 5% in 2021, and -23% in 2025.

II. Altcoin Underperformance & The Importance of Bitcoin

The speaker reiterates the advice to prioritize Bitcoin over altcoins, citing consistent underperformance of altcoins against Bitcoin over the past four years: -22% in 2022, -30% in 2023, -13% in 2024, and -14% in 2025. He argues that even with Bitcoin’s lackluster performance in 2025, holding Bitcoin outperformed holding altcoins. The speaker suggests that the lack of a final rotation into altcoins may be linked to the end of Quantitative Tightening (QT) and resulting low social interest in the crypto space. He states, “if you’re going to stick with anything in crypto just stick with Bitcoin.”

III. 2025 Price Action & Technical Analysis

Bitcoin experienced a rally at the beginning of 2025, followed by a “post-inauguration dump” around January 20th, a top that was predicted months in advance. Despite this drop, Bitcoin managed to hold above the 2024 high during the February-April period, leading to the expectation of a market cycle top in Q4 of the post-halving year – which ultimately materialized.

However, the speaker points to a concerning divergence: rising prices accompanied by lower highs in the weekly RSI (Relative Strength Index). This suggests weakening momentum despite price increases. The final high on the weekly RSI in 2021 was around 68-69, while in 2025 it reached only 70, indicating diminished interest. He notes Bitcoin started the year above $90,000 and ended below, representing marginal gains.

IV. Bitcoin vs. Traditional Assets: Shifting Tops

The speaker highlights the importance of the denominator used when evaluating Bitcoin’s performance. He argues that measuring Bitcoin against the US dollar is problematic due to the dollar’s inherent devaluation over time. Therefore, he analyzes Bitcoin’s performance against other assets:

• Bitcoin vs. S&P 500: Bitcoin topped against the S&P 500 in July 2025, earlier than usual. This pattern was also observed in the previous cycle, with a high in April 2021 preceding the November high.
• Bitcoin vs. Gold: This comparison reveals the most significant shift. Bitcoin topped against gold in December 2024, a full year earlier than the typical November/December peak observed in 2017 and 2021. This is considered a particularly noteworthy observation.

V. Bear Market Assessment & Potential Future Scenarios

The speaker acknowledges the possibility of the bear market being over, given the earlier top against gold. However, he cautions against premature conclusions. Analyzing the weekly RSI of Bitcoin against gold, he notes that current levels have historically been good buying opportunities, but were not the bottom in the previous cycle. He points out a divergent higher high on the RSI even at lower prices.

He anticipates a continuation of the bear market until monetary policy changes. He suggests a potential rally back to the 50-week moving average in 2026, mirroring historical patterns in midterm years (counter-trend rallies occurred in March 2022 and July 2018). However, he acknowledges that a rally isn’t guaranteed, referencing 2014 where the 50-week SMA wasn’t reached until the bear market ended. He also identifies potential support levels at a sweep of a previous low and the yearly open price.

VI. Apathy-Driven Bear Market & Analogies to 2019

The speaker argues that the current bear market is different from previous ones due to its foundation in apathy rather than euphoria. The lack of a rotation into altcoins and the muted price action suggest a less dramatic decline. He states, “we topped on apathy this cycle. That’s why there was no rotation into altcoins.”

He proposes that the current market is more analogous to the 2019 bear market than to 2014, 2018, or 2022. He emphasizes that the 2019 bear market provides the best historical comparison, suggesting a period of consolidation and gradual recovery. He concludes, “My base case right now is that we’re in something like that.”

VII. Conclusion & Investment Strategy

The speaker concludes that 2026 could present buying opportunities, particularly in the mid-to-late year, echoing historical trends in midterm years. He encourages viewers to remain invested and capitalize on potential opportunities as the market cycle progresses. He reiterates the importance of patience and a long-term perspective, stating, “the people that made the most money in these bull markets were the people that stuck around in the bear and got those good opportunities.” He also promotes “Into the Cryptoverse Premium” for further insights.