Hamas declares Gaza war completely over | DW News

Key Concepts

• Ceasefire Agreement: A temporary cessation of fighting, in this case, between Israel and Hamas in Gaza.
• Hostage Deal: An agreement involving the release of hostages held by Hamas in exchange for Palestinian prisoners.
• Humanitarian Aid: Essential supplies like food, water, and medicine provided to populations in need, particularly in conflict zones.
• Famine: Extreme scarcity of food, leading to widespread starvation and death.
• Social Fabric: The complex interconnections and relationships that bind a society together.
• Disarmament: The process of reducing or eliminating weapons and military forces.
• Balance of Power: The distribution of power among competing entities, in this context, between Hamas and the Palestinian Authority.
• Self-determination: The right of a people to freely determine their own political status and to pursue their economic, social, and cultural development.
• De Facto Apartheid: A system of institutionalized racial segregation and discrimination that exists in practice, even if not legally codified.
• Geopolitical Risk Consulting: A specialized field that advises on political and economic risks associated with international relations and global events.

---

Approval of Ceasefire and Hostage Deal: Initial Reactions and Realities

Israel's government has approved the first phase of a ceasefire and hostage deal for Gaza, based on a framework laid out by Donald Trump. The agreement was signed off by negotiators in Egypt late on Wednesday, paving the way for a ceasefire within 24 hours. The United States will deploy 200 troops to Israel to monitor the ceasefire, alongside soldiers from Egypt and Qatar.

Gazan Perspective: Residents in Gaza have expressed celebrations and hope, with many stating, "No bombs, no drones, no more death." They voiced relief at the prospect of sending children to schools without fear and sitting in tents without fear, acknowledging that while the war might be over, their "wounds will not be gone." However, the immediate reality in Gaza remains dire:

• Destruction: Approximately 80% of buildings have been destroyed over two years of Israeli bombardments, displacing nearly all residents.
• Humanitarian Crisis: Essential supplies like food, water, and medicine have been severely restricted, leading to a declared famine in the territory.
• Casualties: According to the Hamasan Health Ministry, over 67,000 people have been killed, predominantly civilians.
• Survivor Sentiment: Many survivors expressed profound loss and a lack of joy, highlighting the extensive destruction and personal tragedies. One survivor stated, "No joy in the heart after two years. You can see how Gaza has been destroyed... We were pulled out from under the rubble after I lost my father, my mother, my sister, and my family. I don't feel happy. I'm not excited about anything because we've lost so much." The rebuilding of lives and livelihoods is expected to take "years and years."

Israeli Government and Public Perspective: Prime Minister Netanyahu thanked Donald Trump and his US envoys, Steve Whit and Jared Kushner, for their "extraordinary help" in achieving the agreement. He described it as a "momentous development" and reiterated that a central war aim was to "return the hostages, all of the hostages, the living and the dead," a goal he believes they are "about to achieve." In Tel Aviv, Israelis also celebrated, expressing "the greatest happiness" and calling it "the biggest day for the old nation of Israel" after "two years like hell."

Humanitarian Aid Plan

The United Nations has announced that its staff are prepared to immediately scale up aid deliveries. For the first 60 days of the ceasefire, the UN aims to:

• Increase Supplies: Boost the pipeline of supplies to "hundreds of trucks every day."
• Food Provision: Scale up food provision across Gaza to reach 2.1 million people requiring food aid and approximately 500,000 people needing nutrition.
• Famine Reversal: The primary objective is to revert famine in areas where it has taken hold and prevent its spread to other regions.

Expert Analysis: Credibility, Fragility, and Future Challenges

Georgio Cafiro, CEO and Founder of Gulf State Analytics, provided insights into the deal's complexities:

• Fragile Process: While the approval of Phase 1 is significant, the process moving forward is "very complicated" and will not be resolved "overnight," potentially taking "quite a bit of time" to reach Phase 2, if at all.
• Unknown Variables: Many questions remain unanswered, including the exact timing for the cessation of Israeli hostilities, the extent of Israeli ground forces' withdrawal, and critical issues surrounding Hamas's disarmament and its role in post-conflict Gaza. Cafiro stressed that it is a "very fragile ceasefire" with "many ways that this ceasefire could go sideways."
• Hamas's Standing: Politically, both Hamas and the Palestinian Authority (PA) face significant challenges in the eyes of the general Palestinian population. While Hamas has been "significantly weakened" over the past two years due to the killing of many of its leaders, it is "not eradicated" and remains a reality in Palestinian politics, albeit at a "weaker point today."

Ysef Muner, Head of the Palestinian-Israeli Program and Senior Fellow at the Arab Center in Washington DC, offered the Palestinian perspective:

• Joy and Skepticism: Palestinians are "overjoyed at the possibility that the genocide may finally come to an end," given their suffering. However, there is "a lot of skepticism about whether or not this will hold," particularly recalling a similar, multi-phased agreement in January that the Israelis backed out of, with the Americans failing to hold them to their word.
• Israeli Commitment to End War: A significant development is Israel's commitment to "end the war" upon ratifying the agreement, a departure from previous stances where they insisted on achieving specific war aims (some outlined in Trump's 20-point plan) before ending hostilities. Muner views this as a "major change" that, if guaranteed by Donald Trump, "could bring a major and decisive perhaps conclusion to this horrific genocide."
• Post-Hamas Governance: Hamas has long stated its willingness to "step away from power in Gaza." Muner clarified that Gaza is currently under "deep Israeli military occupation," not truly governed by anyone other than the Israeli military. He emphasized that all Palestinians are united behind the idea that Gaza is Palestinian territory, and its residents have a right to self-determination, preferring to be governed by elected Palestinians.
• Sovereignty vs. Occupation: Despite global calls for Palestinian self-determination and growing recognition of a Palestinian state, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, whom Muner referred to as an "indicted war criminal," has plainly stated, "There will be no Palestinian state. I will not allow it." Muner concluded that Netanyahu's formula appears to be a "continuation of de facto apartheid," which the world will reject, and Palestinians fear the ceasefire could "cement occupation under another name."

Conclusion

The approved first phase of the ceasefire and hostage deal brings a fragile sense of hope to both Israelis and Palestinians after two years of devastating conflict. While Gazans celebrate the potential end of hostilities, they face the monumental task of rebuilding a shattered society and addressing a severe humanitarian crisis, with the UN poised to deliver extensive aid. Israelis, too, express happiness over the prospect of hostages returning. However, expert analyses highlight the deal's inherent fragility, numerous unresolved issues concerning Hamas's future role, disarmament, and the long-term political status of Gaza. Palestinian skepticism persists regarding Israel's commitment to a lasting peace and genuine self-determination, fearing that the agreement might merely perpetuate occupation under a different guise, especially given Prime Minister Netanyahu's explicit rejection of a Palestinian state. The success of this initial phase and the potential for subsequent phases hinge on the ability of mediators, particularly the US, to ensure adherence to commitments and navigate the complex geopolitical landscape.