Haiti in political limbo: Transitional Council mandate ends, no plan for succession • FRANCE 24

Haiti’s Crisis: A Deep Dive into Political Instability and Security Challenges

Key Concepts:

• Transitional Presidential Council (TPC): A temporary governing body established in April 2023 with a mandate to stabilize Haiti and organize elections.
• Gang Violence: Pervasive criminal activity controlling approximately 90% of Port-au-Prince and contributing to mass displacement.
• Kenyan-led Multinational Security Support (MSS): A UN-backed force deployed in late 2024 to assist Haitian police in combating gangs.
• Food Insecurity: A critical issue affecting over half of the Haitian population, exacerbated by violence and displacement.
• Displacement: Currently affecting 1.5 million Haitians due to gang violence, exceeding displacement figures from the 2010 earthquake.
• CARICOM: The Caribbean Community, a regional intergovernmental organization involved in the establishment of the TPC.

Political Landscape & The Transitional Council

The interview focuses heavily on the failure of the Transitional Presidential Council (TPC) to achieve its primary objectives. Whitur Marinor, editor-in-chief of AIBO Post, asserts that the “vast majority of Haitian people today find the presidential council ineffective.” The council’s core mandate – stabilizing the country for elections – has not been met. Instead, gang control has expanded their territorial influence. Despite the deployment of the Kenyan-led MSS force, they have not been successful in reclaiming the 90% of Port-au-Prince currently under gang control.

Marinor highlights a long history of US influence in Haitian affairs, dating back to the 1915-1934 occupation, stating that “no big decisions…taken inside of the country…is not influenced by the United States.” He frames the current situation as “unprecedented” in terms of the directness and publicity of external interference, linking it to broader shifts in global diplomacy. He emphasizes that the TPC was established by the US, CARICOM, and other international partners, making its failure a “shared failure” of the international community. Accusations of corruption and misappropriation of funds against council members further undermine its legitimacy.

The current Prime Minister, Ariel Henry, was initially appointed by the international community and then retained by the TPC after dismissing a previous UN official candidate. However, he lacks “local support” and the entire process is viewed as illegitimate by the Haitian population. Haiti has not held elections since 2016, leaving the country without any elected officials.

Security Situation & The Rise of Gangs

The security situation in Haiti is described as “terrible,” with criminal gangs controlling large swathes of territory. While the arrival of the UN anti-gang unit is seen as a potentially positive sign – preventing further gang expansion in the capital – key roads leading to Port-au-Prince remain “strangled by gang violence.” Virtually all areas under gang control remain untouched.

Marinor points to a disturbing trend: UN reports indicate a rise in civilian deaths at the hands of security forces, rather than the gangs themselves. He cites instances of “dozens of seemingly innocent people” being killed by security operations, conducted in a “very chaotic manner.” The Haitian National Police are understaffed and underpaid, and the Haitian army’s effectiveness is questionable. The use of drones by security forces, while intended to combat gangs, has also resulted in civilian casualties.

He notes that 1.5 million Haitians are currently displaced due to violence – a figure exceeding the displacement caused by the devastating 2010 earthquake which killed up to 300,000 people.

Humanitarian Crisis & Challenges Ahead

The interview underscores a severe humanitarian crisis. Marinor identifies the “high level of displacement” as the biggest challenge, highlighting widespread sexual violence, a potential rise in HIV cases, and a concerning retreat in international funding for humanitarian activities despite the escalating needs.

Over half of the Haitian population is facing food insecurity. The insecurity climate severely impacts the informal economy, forcing the closure of markets and disrupting agricultural activities. He describes a scenario where peasants were “chased…by powerful rifles” and forced to abandon their homes, illustrating the pervasive fear and disruption caused by gang violence.

Regarding the possibility of elections before the end of the year, Marinor states bluntly, “Nobody believes such a thing can happen.” He points to the fact that 90% of the capital is under gang influence and the population is concentrated in a small area.

US Involvement & Historical Context

The interview repeatedly emphasizes the historical and ongoing influence of the United States in Haitian politics. Marinor stresses that since the US occupation of 1915-1934, no significant decisions in Haiti have been made without US influence. He suggests that the current crisis is, in part, a consequence of this long-standing dynamic and the actions of the international community in establishing and supporting the TPC.

Notable Quotes:

• “The vast majority of Haitian people today find the presidential council ineffective.” – Whitur Marinor
• “No big decisions…taken inside of the country…is not influenced by the United States.” – Whitur Marinor
• “The failures we are observing today on the ground in Haiti is also a shared failure by this international community.” – Whitur Marinor
• “Nobody believes such a thing can happen [regarding elections].” – Whitur Marinor

Synthesis/Conclusion:

The interview paints a bleak picture of Haiti’s current situation. The TPC has failed to deliver on its promises, the security situation is deteriorating, and a severe humanitarian crisis is unfolding. The pervasive influence of gangs, coupled with a history of external interference, has created a deeply unstable environment. While the international community has attempted to intervene, its efforts have been largely ineffective, and the lack of local support for the current political structures further exacerbates the crisis. The prospect of elections in the near future appears remote, and Haiti faces a long and challenging road to recovery. The interview highlights the urgent need for a more effective and locally-driven approach to address the root causes of the crisis and provide meaningful assistance to the Haitian people.