Greenland crisis escalates as Donald Trump marks one year since returning to power | 7.30

Key Concepts

• Unilateralism: The policy of a nation acting independently without regard to the interests or wishes of other nations.
• National Security Strategy: A guiding document outlining a nation’s goals and approaches to protecting its interests.
• Rules-Based International Order: A system of international relations based on established norms, laws, and institutions.
• Transatlantic Trade War: A potential conflict involving trade barriers and tariffs between the US and European nations.
• Strategic Autonomy: The capacity of a nation to act independently in pursuit of its interests, particularly in defense and security.
• Preeminence: The state of being outstandingly famous or powerful.

The Second Term: A Shift in US Foreign Policy

Donald Trump’s second term has marked a significant departure from traditional US foreign policy, characterized by unilateralism and a willingness to challenge the established international order. Initially promising to be a “peacemaker and unifier,” the reality has been markedly different, with increased military intervention and a focus on asserting American power.

Military Interventions and Global Instability

Within the first 12 months of his second term, the US has engaged in military strikes in Iran, Yemen, Nigeria, and Syria. The ongoing war in Ukraine and the fragile ceasefire in Gaza further contribute to a landscape of global instability. A particularly striking event was the alleged overnight raid by American forces to apprehend Venezuela’s president, demonstrating a willingness to directly intervene in the affairs of sovereign nations. This series of actions has created a sense of unpredictability, with observers noting a constant stream of surprising news (“feels like every day we wake up…and there is a new piece of news that is surprising”).

The Greenland Acquisition Attempt

Perhaps the most visible example of this shift is the US’s pursuit of acquiring Greenland. President Trump has openly discussed the possibility, even hinting at a potential invasion of the territory held by a NATO ally. His response to the question of how far he’s willing to go – “You’ll find out” – underscores a willingness to employ aggressive tactics. This pursuit is ostensibly justified by “national security and even international security,” but is also fueled by personal grievances, specifically anger over being overlooked for the Nobel Peace Prize. A text message to Norway’s Prime Minister revealed a belief that Norway controls the Nobel committee, dismissing any assertion to the contrary as “a joke.”

“Running a Global Mafia” & Erosion of International Law

Matthew Duss, a former foreign policy advisor, describes the Trump administration’s approach as “essentially running a global mafia,” where “might makes right.” This perspective highlights the prioritization of power over diplomacy. French President Emanuel Macron has warned of a shift towards a world “without rules,” where international law is disregarded and “imperial ambitions are resurfacing.” He affirmed support for Greenland and Denmark’s right to self-determination. Trump has leveraged his “preferred non-military weapon of choice,” tariffs, threatening trade penalties against European nations unless his demands regarding Greenland are met, potentially triggering a “fullblown transatlantic trade war.”

National Security Strategy and Hemispheric Focus

The administration’s new national security strategy, released late last year, explicitly states the US “must remain preeminent in the Western Hemisphere to preserve its security and prosperity.” This strategy explains the focus on Greenland and Venezuela, but also reveals a potential neglect of other regions.

Asia-Pacific Concerns & Australian Implications

Experts note a lack of focus on Asia, with no “coherent or developed Asia strategy.” Hugh White, a former senior defense official, believes Trump is “quite relaxed about the idea that China ends up being the dominant power in our part of the world.” This has prompted concerns in Australia, leading White to advocate for increased “strategic autonomy” and reduced reliance on the US for military security. He argues that Australia needs a “wakeup call” and to develop a “plan B” in case the US continues down a path of “increasing authoritarianism” and disregard for international law. There is a “very high likelihood” that the US would not intervene in a regional flashpoint like a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, mirroring the approach taken with Ukraine – viewing it as “Taiwan’s problem, not America’s.”

The Alliance Dilemma for Australia

While Australia is unlikely to abandon its alliance with the US, the prospect of a US willing to disregard international norms presents a “pretty scary prospect” for a middle power reliant on a “rules-based order.” The question becomes: “What is Australia going to do if the United States goes further down the path of…withdrawing from international law?”

Notable Quotes

• Donald Trump: “My proudest legacy will be that of a peacemaker and unifier.”
• Donald Trump: “You’ll find out.” (Regarding the extent to which he would go to acquire Greenland)
• Donald Trump: “And don't let anyone tell you that Norway doesn't control the shots. Okay. It's in Norway. Norway controls the shots.”
• Matthew Duss: “I've referred to it in the past as essentially running a global mafia. That is really how he seems to see the United States.”
• Emanuel Macron: “…a world without rules where international law is trampled underfoot and where the only law that seems to matter is that of the strongest and imperial ambitions are resurfacing.”
• Hugh White: “I think we've got a real wakeup call from Australia's point of view that the idea that we should be relying on the United States under Trump…is something we absolutely cannot take for granted.”

Conclusion

Donald Trump’s second term has witnessed a dramatic reshaping of US foreign policy, characterized by unilateralism, a disregard for international norms, and a focus on asserting American power, particularly in the Western Hemisphere. This shift has created instability, strained alliances, and prompted nations like Australia to reassess their reliance on the US for security. The long-term consequences of this new approach remain uncertain, but the erosion of the rules-based international order and the potential for increased conflict are significant concerns. The core takeaway is that the US, under Trump, is operating under a fundamentally different set of principles than previously understood, demanding a recalibration of global strategies and a renewed focus on national self-reliance for many nations.