Gold & Silver Will Keep Climbing But THESE Metals are Next to EXPLODE: Gianni Kovacevic

Commodity Culture Interview with Johnny Kovasovich – December 12th, 2025

Key Concepts: Precious metals (Gold, Silver), Commodities Supercycle, Lithium, Direct Lithium Extraction (DLE), Phosphate (Purified Phosphoric Acid - PPA), Sodium-ion Batteries, Battery Technology (LFP, NMC), Cathode Active Material (CAM), Speculation vs. Preservation of Capital, Geopolitical Influences on Commodity Markets.

I. Precious Metals – Gold and Silver Outlook

The primary driver behind gold’s current performance is a flight from the US dollar by governments, corporations, and individuals, a trend expected to continue. Gold is currently trading around $4,300, with a potential to reach $5,000 as a likely scenario, and potentially $8,000-$10,000, though the latter is less certain. However, simply buying physical gold is primarily for preserving spending power, not generating substantial returns.

For speculators, the greatest torque lies in the precious metals mining sector, specifically:

• Gold Producers: Currently undervalued compared to historical levels, anticipating improved financial reporting in the next two to three quarters.
• Developers: Potential for 10x returns through buyouts or new discoveries, but riskier.
• Drill Hole Plays: Highest potential reward, but also the highest risk – success hinges on actual gold discovery. Failure results in loss of invested capital.

Silver, currently at $64, has outperformed gold, closing the gap in the gold/silver ratio (now around 67:1). Historically, the ratio was 50:1, used as a benchmark for comparing silver deposits to gold deposits (100 million ounces of silver roughly equivalent to 2 million ounces of gold). Silver is currently more expensive than a barrel of oil, a rare occurrence. A silver price reaching $80 is probable if gold reaches $5,000, but a push to $100 could be followed by a significant correction (potentially 30%), mirroring historical bull market corrections (as noted by Rick Rule). The long-term trend for both gold and silver remains upward, likened to a continuous “soap opera” driven by the loss of confidence in the US dollar.

II. Battery Tech & Lithium – The “When” Story

A commodities supercycle is underway, driving a shift towards hard assets. Lithium is poised for a significant resurgence, particularly with the market balancing in 2026 and becoming undersupplied. This isn’t an “if” story, but a “when” story. The key is identifying the right investment opportunities.

• Current Market Dynamics: Lithium prices crashed from $80,000/ton to $8,000/ton due to hype, but the fundamentals are improving. Demand growth for batteries is exceeding expectations (30% CAGR). Ganfang, the world’s largest lithium company, projects a 1.55 million ton market in 2025, growing to 2 million tons in 2026.
• Investment Strategy: Focus on companies with a “when” story – those poised to benefit from predictable market developments. This contrasts with relying on uncertain discoveries.
• Four Key Acronyms:
  • CAM (Cathode Active Material): The focus of battery chemistry.
  • LFP (Lithium Iron Phosphate): Dominating the battery market (65-80% share).
  • DLE (Direct Lithium Extraction): The future of lithium extraction.
  • PPA (Purified Phosphoric Acid): Crucial for LFP battery production.

III. Direct Lithium Extraction (DLE) – A Game Changer

DLE is superior to traditional lithium extraction methods due to:

• Reduced Environmental Impact: Requires 8-10x less water and energy.
• Minimal Surface Footprint: Often utilizes existing oil well infrastructure.
• Government Support: Attracting investment and favorable regulations (examples cited: Arkansas Governor Huckabee Sanders, Alberta Premier Daniel Smith).
• Industry Adoption: Oil and gas companies (e.g., ExxonMobil, Riotinto) are investing heavily in DLE.

Lithium Bank is highlighted as a promising DLE play, with a small share structure (62 million shares outstanding) and a feasibility study expected in 12 months.

IV. Phosphate – The Underrated Component

Phosphate, specifically Purified Phosphoric Acid (PPA), is critical for LFP battery production. The focus should be on igneous phosphate deposits, as they yield higher quality PPA.

• First Phosphate is identified as a key player, partnering with Prayon (a leading PPA producer) and benefiting from government support.
• The company is undertaking a 35,000-meter drill program and aims to complete a feasibility study within a year.

V. Sodium-Ion Batteries – A Complement, Not a Disruption

Sodium-ion batteries are emerging as a potential alternative, but are not expected to disrupt the LFP/lithium market significantly in the near term (next 3-5 years).

• Energy Density: Currently lower than LFP and NMC batteries.
• Application: Best suited for lower-range applications (city vehicles).
• Market Dynamics: While sodium-ion batteries are gaining traction, the massive investment in LFP battery infrastructure will continue to drive lithium demand.

Notable Quotes:

• “We kind of know how the movie ends already. People are fleeing the US dollar.” – Johnny Kovasovich
• “You’re not buying gold to get rich. You’re doing it to preserve your spending power.” – Johnny Kovasovich
• “Successful speculating has everyone else agree with you later.” – Johnny Kovasovich
• “Go as far as you can see. When you get there, you’ll see further.” – JP Morgan (as quoted by Johnny Kovasovich)

Data & Statistics:

• Gold price: ~$4,300
• Silver price: ~$64
• Gold/Silver Ratio: 67:1 (historically 50:1)
• Lithium price crash: from $80,000/ton to $8,000/ton
• Lithium market growth projection: 1.55 million tons in 2025, 2 million tons in 2026
• LFP battery market share: 65-80%
• Lithium Bank shares outstanding: 62 million

Conclusion:

The interview presents a bullish outlook for precious metals, particularly gold and silver, driven by geopolitical factors and declining confidence in the US dollar. However, the greatest speculative opportunities lie in the mining sector. The future of battery technology hinges on lithium, phosphate, and DLE, with Lithium Bank and First Phosphate highlighted as potential high-growth investments. While sodium-ion batteries are emerging, they are not expected to disrupt the lithium market in the near term. The key takeaway is to focus on “when” stories – investments with predictable catalysts and strong fundamentals – and to be prepared to capitalize on market inefficiencies by buying from pessimists and selling to optimists.