Gold & Silver Could Retest Highs In December If This Happens

Key Concepts

• Precious Metals Performance: Gold and silver are outperforming other major asset classes in 2025, with silver showing stronger gains than gold.
• Bull Market Indicators: The gold-to-silver ratio, current price action relative to historical highs, and the performance of gold mining stocks suggest an ongoing bull market for precious metals.
• Loss of Faith in US Dollar and Debt: A weakening global confidence in the US dollar and US debt is a key driver for precious metals.
• Real Negative Interest Rates: The anticipation of real negative interest rates is a significant factor supporting gold prices.
• US Silver Stockpiling: The US adding silver to its critical minerals list and historical precedent suggest a potential for government stockpiling for defense purposes.
• Silver as a Critical Mineral: Silver's inclusion on the critical minerals list highlights its strategic importance.
• Supply and Demand Dynamics for Silver: Increasing demand, particularly for military applications, coupled with limited domestic reserves, creates pressure on silver supply.
• Paper vs. Physical Silver Market: The physical silver market is expected to exert significant pressure on the paper silver market, potentially leading to its evolution or disappearance.

Precious Metals Performance and Bull Market Indicators

The past week has seen significant market volatility, but precious metals, specifically gold and silver, have demonstrated strength, outperforming other major asset classes in 2025. Silver has shown particularly robust performance, up over 4.5% for the week and an impressive 61% over the past year, compared to gold's 2.1% weekly gain and 52% annual gain. This strong performance has increased the combined market capitalization share of gold and silver within the top 10 investable assets to over 57%, up from 56.12% the previous week.

Several indicators suggest that the current bull market for gold and silver is still in its early stages. The gold-to-silver ratio, currently hovering around 80, is a key metric. Historically, a declining gold-to-silver ratio has coincided with the peak of precious metals bull markets. The current ratio suggests significant room for further appreciation.

The speaker argues that the stock market is showing signs of a potential rollover, which is expected to further propel gold and silver prices. This is attributed to a growing global loss of faith in the US dollar and US debt, evidenced by a "massive bare market in US bonds" and the impending reality of real negative interest rates. As a result, individuals and institutions (excluding central banks) are increasingly recognizing gold as the primary safe haven asset. This was demonstrated during a 50-day S&P 500 pullback earlier this year, where the index dropped by approximately 20%, while gold prices rose by 8%.

Updated View on Historical Highs

The video provides an updated analysis of gold and silver's price action following their recent highs in October, comparing it to historical peaks in 1980 and 2011.

• Gold: The recent move above $4,300 per ounce is not considered a traditional "blow-off top." Gold prices have remained at or above 90% of their recent high. In contrast, after making highs in 1980 and 2011, gold lost 15% or more of its market value within 19 days. The speaker reiterates that gold is not topping but consolidating before its next upward move.
• Silver: A similar analysis for silver, looking at its price progression 21 days after making a high, also indicates a lack of topping signs. 21 trading days after the October 16th, 2025 high, silver has not significantly deviated from its peak. This contrasts sharply with 2011, where silver lost over 20% of its value within 21 days of its top, and 1980, where it lost 35% in the same timeframe.

Gold-to-Silver Ratio Analysis

The gold-to-silver ratio is a crucial indicator for identifying market tops. In both 1980 and 2011, this ratio crashed by 60% from its local high to the bottom, which coincided with market tops. The current local high for the ratio was 103. This suggests that a market top for precious metals is unlikely before the ratio reaches a significantly lower level, potentially 41 or at least 65 (the 5-year low). This further supports the argument for an ongoing bull market.

Forecast for Gold and Silver Prices

The speaker reiterates a previous call for new highs in both gold and silver prices by April 2026, emphasizing "at the latest." This forecast is based on the market beginning to price in real negative interest rates, a scenario that has historically coincided with higher precious metals prices (e.g., 1970-1980 and 2002).

Potential Triggers for an Early Move

The possibility of an earlier upward move, potentially as early as December of the current year, is linked to the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy. While market expectations, as indicated by the CME Fed Watch tool, show a 56% chance of the Federal Reserve holding interest rates steady in December due to "sticky inflation" and uncertainty caused by a potential US government shutdown, the speaker suggests skepticism towards this narrative.

The argument against a no-rate-cut scenario is based on the weakening US economy, as evidenced by recent ADP private payroll data showing job losses rather than gains. Furthermore, the reliability of US job openings data has been questioned since 2023 due to the prevalence of "ghost job postings." These fake job offers are used by companies for various strategic reasons, including building resume databases, signaling growth to investors and clients, gauging market salaries, and potentially making current employees feel replaceable. The speaker estimates that the actual number of US job openings could be as low as 5 million, significantly lower than the reported 7 million, and comparable to 2019 lows.

If the Fed were to cut rates in December, and potentially aggressively as the economy moves towards a return to quantitative easing in 2026, this could trigger a significant upward move in the metals market as early as December, as rate cuts are repriced into the market. The speaker advises viewers to "plan for it" and not to waste the current opportunity, as this is not a typical topping situation like in 1980 or 2011.

Viewer Question: Why Would the USA Buy Silver?

This section addresses a viewer question from Gil Thorne regarding the rationale behind the US government potentially stockpiling silver, especially since its inclusion on the critical minerals list doesn't automatically mandate purchases.

Silver's Status as a Critical Mineral and Historical Precedent

Silver was officially added to the United States critical mineral list by the US Geological Survey approximately 10 days prior to the video's recording. While this inclusion doesn't guarantee stockpiling, there is historical precedent. The US government previously stockpiled silver for defense purposes, starting in 1942 for the Manhattan Project and continuing into an official defense stockpile established in 1968. This stockpile was deemed excessive and began to be sold off in 1979, coinciding with the Hunt Brothers' silver market squeeze, and was depleted by the early 2000s.

Strategic Need for Silver Stockpiling

The speaker argues that if silver was important enough for military stockpiling in 1968, its current inclusion on the critical minerals list, coupled with its increased use in modern military technology, makes a renewed stockpiling effort logical. This is further emphasized by the fact that the United States holds less than 4% of the world's silver reserves, making it heavily reliant on imports.

The current geopolitical landscape, with international games being played over the export of rare earths (a market cornered by China) and ongoing conflicts or potential conflicts in Ukraine, Taiwan, Iran, and Venezuela, highlights the strategic vulnerability of relying on foreign supply chains for critical minerals. The US military is unlikely to risk potential disruptions in silver supply, especially given its current appetite for conflict.

New Demand and Market Pressure

The speaker has been informed by a trusted source that new demand for silver, likely from government stockpiling, is already being absorbed. This new demand is expected to exert significant pressure on the supply side of the silver market, which is already being consumed faster than it can be mined. The speaker predicts that by 2026, the physical silver market will exert such pressure on prices that the paper silver market will either need to evolve or cease to exist.

Conclusion and Call to Action

The video concludes by encouraging viewers to share their thoughts in the comments section and to like the video if they found the content valuable, as this helps reach a wider audience. The speaker reiterates the importance of self-care and mutual care in the current challenging environment.