GOLD RUSH: The fate of Napoleon’s lost jewels

Key Concepts:

• Diamond Quality and Supply: Historical diamond sources (India) versus modern sources (South Africa, Russia).
• Value of Historical Jewelry: Intrinsic value of gold and gemstones versus the added value of provenance and heritage.
• Market Factors Affecting Diamond Prices: Lab-grown diamonds, reduced luxury demand (especially from China), real estate and consumer crises in China.
• Resale of Stolen Art vs. Stolen Jewelry: Difficulty in reselling stolen art due to lack of intrinsic value versus the inherent value of gold and gemstones in stolen jewelry.
• Motivation for Theft: Desire for intrinsic value versus desire for provenance and heritage.

Discussion on Stolen Jewelry Quality and Value

Tobias Gorman, co-founder and managing director of 77 Diamonds, discusses the quality of stones in historically significant jewelry, particularly in the context of recent thefts. He notes that while the quality of some stones might be lower compared to modern standards, this is largely due to limited supply in earlier periods. Historically, diamonds and other stones were sourced from places like India, which had much lower supply compared to later discoveries in South Africa and Russia. Despite this, many historical pieces contain very good quality stones with incredible provenance.

Gorman emphasizes that the value of these historical pieces is significantly enhanced by their provenance and heritage, especially when they are state jewels. He contrasts this with the intrinsic value of the gold and gemstones themselves. He acknowledges that the gold in older pieces might have more impurities, but the sheer weight of gold stolen in recent incidents is substantial. The stolen pieces often contain a mix of smaller stones and some very large, significant ones, representing a considerable amount of value.

Market Dynamics and Diamond Prices

The conversation touches upon the declining price of natural diamonds. Gorman attributes this trend to two primary factors:

1. Rise of Lab-Grown Diamonds: The increasing availability and market penetration of lab-grown diamonds have put downward pressure on the prices of natural diamonds.
2. Reduced Luxury Demand: A significant factor impacting global diamond demand is the economic situation in China, the second-largest diamond market. China has experienced a real estate crisis and a broader consumer crisis, leading to a reduction in luxury spending, which in turn has affected the global diamond market. Gorman specifically mentions that the price of one-carat natural diamonds has fallen by 27% in the last three years.

Resale of Stolen Items: Art vs. Jewelry

A key point of discussion is the likelihood of the stolen pieces being broken up for resale. Dagen raises the question of whether these items, being valuable as artifacts, would be kept intact. Gorman argues that this is unlikely, especially when compared to stolen art.

• Stolen Art: Gorman explains that stealing a canvas out of a wall is incredibly difficult to resell because a stolen artwork has no intrinsic value in itself. Its value is derived from the artist, creativity, and provenance. Once stolen, it's virtually impossible to sell without raising suspicion.
• Stolen Jewelry: In contrast, jewelry possesses intrinsic value due to the gemstones and the precious metals (like gold). Even if the provenance and heritage of the pieces are priceless, the inherent value of the materials makes them more amenable to being broken down and sold. Gorman states, "There is an intrinsic value in the jewels themselves and in the gold."

Motivations Behind the Theft

The discussion explores the potential motivations of the thieves and their buyers.

• Intrinsic Value: Gorman suggests that if someone is not interested in holding these pieces for their provenance or heritage (perhaps due to the risk of being associated with stolen state jewels), they might still be motivated by the intrinsic value of the gold and gemstones. He finds it "very unlikely" that someone would steal these pieces solely to keep them in their vault if they weren't interested in their historical significance.
• "Napoleonic Fetish": Dagen humorously suggests the possibility of someone wanting to steal them "in whole so they can just maybe prance around their palace, their own palace wearing a crown and a necklace," likening it to a "Napoleonic fetish." Gorman acknowledges this as a possibility, implying a desire to possess the items for their symbolic power or historical association, rather than for immediate resale.

Conclusion and Future Outlook

Gorman expresses hope that the stolen items will be found, noting that such recoveries have happened before. The conversation concludes with a lighthearted remark about acquiring large sapphires from Amazon, highlighting the contrast between high-value historical jewels and readily available consumer goods. The core takeaway is that while historical jewelry holds immense value due to its provenance, the intrinsic value of its components makes it more susceptible to being broken down and resold compared to stolen art. The current market conditions, with the rise of lab-grown diamonds and reduced luxury demand, also play a role in the potential fate of these stolen treasures.