GOLD Has 'Much Further to Run' in 2026 - '$10,000 is Possible'

Commodity Culture Interview Summary - December 11th, 2025

Key Concepts:

• Deglobalization: A shift away from interconnected global supply chains towards regionalization and increased domestic production, driving commodity price inflation.
• Dollarization/De-dollarization: The reliance on, and potential decline of, the US dollar as the primary global reserve currency, impacting gold demand.
• Commodity Index Construction: The methodology behind creating commodity indices, highlighting the differences between traditional production-weighted indices (GSCI, BCOM) and investor-focused indices (Quantics Commodities Index).
• Roll Yield: The profit or loss incurred when rolling futures contracts, significantly impacting long-term commodity investment returns.
• Rearmament & Commodity Demand: The potential impact of increased global defense spending on base metal demand, particularly aluminum and copper.
• AI & Commodity Demand: The potential impact of AI on commodity demand, particularly in the technology and healthcare sectors.

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I. Gold Market Analysis

The gold market experienced a significant surge in 2024, reaching $4,200 per ounce. The primary catalyst for this increase was the initiation of a de-dollarization trend among global central banks following the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. This led to consistent buying pressure from central banks, creating a stable, non-volatile price increase from $2,000 to $3,500. More recently, retail investor participation has driven further price increases, albeit with increased volatility.

Don Casuro believes the bull market is still in its early innings, drawing parallels to the 1980s gold rally driven by similar institutional credibility concerns. He suggests a price of $10,000 is possible, mirroring the percentage increase seen in the 1980s. Kristoff Gl agrees, emphasizing a structurally different post-GFC environment characterized by currency debasement. He anticipates a potentially volatile 2025 with a new dovish Fed chair coinciding with a potentially overheating economy. He notes the incoming Fed chair is “indisputable” and will likely be following orders on rate cuts.

II. Silver Market Dynamics

Silver has also reached all-time highs, increasing over 100% year-to-date, currently trading around $61-62. While more volatile than gold, Don Casuro argues silver possesses greater upside potential due to its smaller market size. The gold-silver ratio, historically around 80, expanded to 100 before contracting to 60 as retail investors entered the market, perceiving silver as undervalued. He cautions that while the ratio isn’t overstretched, silver’s volatility requires caution. He highlights that the smaller market size of silver means sentiment can drive larger price movements.

III. Base Metals: Copper & Nickel

Copper experienced a volatile year, initially rising on proposed tariffs before falling when those tariffs were less widely implemented. Don Casuro remains bullish on copper, citing supply issues from major producers, a visible market deficit, and a positive roll yield in LME copper (meaning investors earn a return from holding futures contracts). He notes a premium for US-based copper due to tariff expectations, attracting inventories and creating offshore shortages.

Nickel, however, is viewed less favorably. Don Casuro believes structural issues, including the decreasing relevance of nickel in battery technology and its limited role in AI-driven power consumption, make it a less attractive investment opportunity.

IV. Critical Minerals & Deglobalization

Both speakers emphasize the growing importance of commodities due to a broader trend of deglobalization. Kristoff Gl uses the letter "D" to encapsulate key drivers: different decade, debasement, doves, debt, deficits, defense, data centers, deglobalization, decarbonization, and diversification. This shift from efficiency-driven globalization to security-focused regionalization is expected to introduce inefficiencies and drive commodity prices higher.

Don Casuro highlights the difficulty of directly investing in specialty metals due to illiquidity and limited futures contracts, suggesting commodity equities as a potential alternative.

V. Investment Strategies: Quantics & Harbor Capital

Quantics Commodities Index: This index differs from traditional benchmarks like the GSCI and BCOM by prioritizing investor objectives – specifically, inflation hedging – rather than producer hedging. It weights commodities based on their inflation sensitivity and considers the cost of maintaining exposure through roll yield. It also dynamically reweights based on whether gold or oil are more appropriate hedges in different economic environments.

Harbor Capital’s HGER ETF: This ETF tracks the Quantics Commodities Index, aiming to provide a more effective and diversified commodity investment solution than existing options. Kristoff Gl positions HGER as a potential “new S&P 500 for commodities,” offering improved long-term returns and a smoother investment experience.

Quantics Commodities Alpha (QCA): This is a relative value, absolute return strategy that seeks to profit from inefficiencies in commodity markets and price curves.

Additional Harbor Capital ETFs: Kristoff Gl recommends considering technology-focused (TEC) and healthcare-focused (MEDY) ETFs, driven by the potential of AI and demographic trends, respectively.

VI. Impact of Rearmament on Commodity Markets

An article by Quantics suggests that a return to 1980s levels of global defense spending (4% of GDP, a $1.7 trillion increase) would significantly boost commodity demand. Don Casuro and Kristoff Gl identify aluminum and copper as the base metals most likely to benefit, as increased defense spending will likely push these markets into deficit.

Notable Quotes:

• Don Casuro: “If you have one market that's one nth the size but just as many people that have the sentiment to want to buy it in order to to satisfy that the price moves are going to be much larger.” (Regarding silver’s volatility and potential)
• Kristoff Gl: “We’re in a structurally different environment than we have been post GFC.” (Highlighting the changing dynamics of the commodity market)
• Kristoff Gl: “I do think with this AI technology…we’re only just very much at the beginning of the adoption curve.” (Regarding the potential impact of AI on commodity demand)

Data & Statistics:

• Gold Price: $4,200 per ounce (as of December 11th, 2025)
• Silver Price: $61-62 per ounce (as of December 11th, 2025)
• Gold-Silver Ratio: Historically around 80, peaked at 100, currently around 60.
• Potential Gold Price Target: $10,000 per ounce (based on historical percentage increase in the 1980s)
• Global Defense Spending (Potential Increase): $1.7 trillion annually (returning to 4% of GDP)

Conclusion:

The interview paints a bullish picture for commodities, driven by a confluence of factors including de-dollarization, deglobalization, increased geopolitical tensions, and technological advancements. The speakers emphasize the need for a nuanced investment approach, advocating for indices and strategies that prioritize investor objectives and adapt to changing market dynamics. The potential for increased defense spending and the transformative impact of AI are identified as key catalysts for future commodity demand.