Gold Going to $6000 #gold #investing #inflation

Key Concepts

• Gold Price Performance
• Gold Bull Market
• Disposable Personal Income Per Capita (US)
• Gold Price Prediction Methodology

Gold's Exceptional Performance and Future Outlook

The video highlights that gold is experiencing its best year since the 1970s, with prices increasing by over 50%. This surge has also significantly impacted gold producers, many of whom have seen their stock prices rise by 100-200% year-to-date.

Methodology for Gold Price Prediction

The speaker outlines a specific methodology for predicting the future peak of the gold price. This method is based on historical data from the last major gold bull market in 1979-1980.

Step-by-step Process:

1. Identify the Peak of the Last Secular Bull Market: The last significant bull market in gold occurred in 1979-1980.
2. Determine Gold Price as a Percentage of Disposable Personal Income Per Capita: During the peak of that bull market, the gold price represented approximately 10% of the disposable personal income per capita in the United States.
3. Obtain Current Disposable Personal Income Per Capita Data: The next step involves finding the current figure for disposable personal income per capita in the United States.
4. Calculate 10% of Current Disposable Personal Income Per Capita: Taking 10% of this current disposable personal income per capita figure provides an estimated peak gold price.

Supporting Evidence and Calculation

The speaker applies this methodology to arrive at a prediction of $6,000 per ounce for gold's peak.

• Historical Benchmark: The 1979-1980 bull market peak is used as the historical reference point.
• Calculation: By taking 10% of the current disposable personal income per capita in the United States, the speaker arrives at a figure "a little over 6,000." For simplicity and round numbers, $6,000 is used as the projected peak.

Key Argument and Perspective

The core argument presented is that historical relationships between gold prices and key economic indicators, such as disposable personal income, can serve as a reliable basis for future price predictions. The speaker's perspective is that this historical correlation provides a quantifiable method to forecast the potential ceiling for the current gold bull market.

Notable Statement

"And the question is, well, how in the hell did you get that number? So if you look at the the last big bull we had was 79.80 the secular bull in gold and it peaked out at a gold price of about 10% of the disposable personal income per capita in the United States." This statement directly addresses the methodology and its historical foundation.

Technical Terms and Concepts

• Secular Bull Market: A long-term period of sustained price increases in a particular asset class, typically lasting for years or even decades.
• Disposable Personal Income Per Capita: The average amount of money that individuals have left after taxes and other mandatory deductions, available for spending or saving.

Logical Connections

The discussion logically progresses from observing the current strong performance of gold to explaining the methodology used to predict its future peak. The historical data from the 1979-1980 bull market serves as the crucial link between past trends and future projections.

Data and Statistics

• Gold price increase: Over 50% year-to-date.
• Gold producer stock price increase: 100-200% year-to-date.
• Historical gold price relationship: Approximately 10% of disposable personal income per capita during the 1979-1980 peak.
• Projected gold price peak: Approximately $6,000 per ounce.

Conclusion

Gold is currently experiencing a significant bull run, outperforming in decades. The speaker proposes a predictive model based on the historical relationship between gold prices and US disposable personal income per capita during the 1979-1980 bull market. By applying this 10% ratio to current income levels, a projected peak price of around $6,000 per ounce is derived, suggesting that gold may still have substantial room to grow.