Gold Breaks Support! Watch THESE Levels for Silver & Oil Next 🚨

Key Concepts

• Technical Analysis: The practice of evaluating investments by analyzing statistics generated by market activity, such as past prices and volume.
• 200-Day Moving Average (200 MA): A widely used technical indicator that helps determine the long-term trend of an asset.
• Support and Resistance: Price levels where an asset has difficulty falling below (support) or rising above (resistance).
• Bear Flag: A technical chart pattern that indicates a continuation of a downward trend after a brief period of consolidation.
• Probability-Based Trading: The strategy of making trades only when the "stacking of factors" (multiple technical indicators) suggests a high probability of success (e.g., 75-80%).
• DCA (Dollar Cost Averaging): An investment strategy where an investor divides the total amount to be invested across periodic purchases to reduce the impact of volatility.

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Commodity Market Analysis

1. Gold

Gareth Soloway maintains a bearish outlook on gold, noting that the asset has broken below its 200-day moving average.

• Technical Setup: Gold is currently testing a breakdown. If confirmed, the first interim support target is 4,100, which aligns with a previous low pivot. A secondary target lies between 3,500 and 3,600.
• Stacking Factors: Soloway identifies a confluence of an upward-sloping trend line and historical pivot highs/lows near the 3,500–3,600 range, which he believes increases the probability of a successful bounce to over 80%.
• Upside Scenarios: To negate the bearish outlook, gold must reclaim the 50-day moving average and clear the 4,625 resistance level.

2. Silver

Silver is currently exhibiting a "bearish consolidation" after failing to break through the 92–93 level.

• Current Status: Silver is testing its 200-day moving average. Soloway notes that while the asset has not yet hit his primary downside target of 66–64, the current proximity to the 200 MA makes it a critical zone.
• Risk Assessment: A breakdown below this current support zone would likely lead to a decline toward 54, with a long-term target of 50.

3. Copper

Copper is currently at the higher end of its range but shows signs of a potential rollover.

• Methodology: Soloway highlights that copper recently broke a key trend line. He warns that even if the price bounces (a "bear flag"), the inability to regain the trend line suggests further downside is likely.

4. Platinum and Palladium

• Platinum: Soloway is monitoring a potential entry zone, considering a small DCA position as the price approaches a support level, with a potential downside target of 1,450.
• Palladium: The asset is currently piercing major support. Soloway is exercising caution, noting that if silver continues to decline, platinum and palladium may face further downward pressure. He suggests only "putting a toe in the water" rather than taking a full position.

5. Oil and Natural Gas

• Oil: Despite geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the chart shows a bearish pattern of consolidation (a wedge breakdown). Soloway is currently on the sidelines, having already banked profits from a previous short, as he does not see a high-probability entry point at this time.
• Natural Gas: The asset continues to fail at breakout attempts. Soloway prefers to remain on the sidelines, emphasizing that "sitting on the sidelines... means you don't participate in getting hammered."

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Key Arguments and Philosophy

• The "Casino" Mentality: Soloway argues that successful trading is about being the "casino" rather than the "gambler." This means waiting for high-probability setups (75-80% confidence) rather than guessing market movements.
• The Importance of Confirmation: He stresses that a breakdown is not a signal until it is confirmed by price action (e.g., a lower close).
• Risk Management: Soloway emphasizes that no technical indicator is 100% accurate. He advocates for small, incremental positions (DCA) to maintain maneuverability if the market moves against the initial thesis.

Notable Quotes

• "Everything I do is based on probability. There's no such thing as 'Gareth said this so it has to happen.' It's 'Gareth said this so it's most likely to happen based on the charts.'"
• "I don't like a lot of things on my charts. Simple charts. Give me the facts."

Conclusion

The overarching theme of the analysis is a cautious, bearish bias across most commodities. Soloway emphasizes that while geopolitical news (like in oil) can cause volatility, the technical charts provide the most reliable roadmap. He advises investors to wait for clear, high-probability signals at major support levels rather than forcing trades in uncertain market conditions.