Gold And Silver Price Risk: The Next Move Could Be Fast

Potential Volatility in Precious Metals & Market Updates - Jeff Christian, CPM Group (February 12, 2026)

Key Concepts:

• Measured Move: A chart pattern suggesting a potential price decline following a previous rise, often equal in magnitude to the initial increase.
• Registered Inventories (COMEX): Silver held in vaults approved for delivery against COMEX futures contracts.
• Open Interest (COMEX): The total number of outstanding futures contracts for a specific commodity.
• Arbitrage: Exploiting price differences for the same asset in different markets to generate profit.
• Depository Receipts: Evidence of ownership of a commodity held in a vault.
• CFTC: Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the US government agency regulating derivatives markets.

I. Precious Metals Price Outlook & Potential Volatility

Jeff Christian of CPM Group discusses the potential for volatile price swings in the gold, silver, platinum, and palladium markets. As of February 12, 2026, gold is trading around $5,100 per ounce (April Comex contract). While CPM Group believes gold has more upward momentum than other metals, caution is advised due to a recent sharp rise from $4,400 to $5,600 followed by a significant correction.

A “measured move” pattern is identified, suggesting a potential decline of $1,200 from the current $5,100 level, potentially bringing the price back to $4,000 – the record achieved in October 2025. However, CPM Group anticipates any such downturn would be a short-term buying opportunity for investors and central banks.

The recent stronger-than-expected US jobs report has shifted market expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts from June to July, potentially creating short-term downward pressure on gold. However, Christian argues that political factors currently outweigh economic concerns.

II. Silver Market Analysis & Inventory Dynamics

Silver exhibits a higher risk of a sharp downward move than gold. The silver price experienced a similar pattern to gold, rising from $70 to over $120 before falling back to around $83. A measured move could see a decline similar in size to the previous spike, potentially pushing prices lower.

Despite this risk, CPM Group expects a strong rise in the silver price during the final week of February, driven by the need to roll over 339-340 million ounces of March open interest into the May Comex contract. However, a further price dip before this roll is possible.

III. Platinum & Palladium Outlook

Platinum and palladium are considered to have even more downside potential than silver, primarily driven by investor and speculative buying rather than strong fundamentals. Both metals have not rebounded as strongly as gold after recent price corrections, leaving them vulnerable to further profit-taking.

IV. Deteriorating Market Oversight & Information Access

Christian expresses concern over a decline in market regulatory capacity and the availability of reliable information. He cites two specific examples:

• Cancellation of the CIA World Factbook: The US government abruptly ended public access to the CIA World Factbook, a previously valuable source of unbiased information on global economic and political conditions, including metal inventories. Christian argues that limiting access to accurate information fosters the spread of rumors and conspiracy theories. He acknowledges the CIA has biases, but those biases are built on a foundation of accurate data.
• CFTC Staff Reductions: The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has drastically reduced its investigative staff in Chicago, a major hub for futures trading. This reduction in oversight, coupled with a broader trend of gutting financial market regulation, creates an environment conducive to malfeasance.

V. Silver Inventory Analysis – Debunking Shortage Claims

Christian addresses claims of a silver shortage, specifically regarding COMEX inventories. He states that current total COMEX inventories are around 380 million ounces, higher than levels seen before 2025. Registered inventories are also at relatively high levels (over 100 million ounces).

He emphasizes that COMEX inventories are high relative to deliveries and open interest. Deliveries represent a small fraction of total inventories, and open interest is a multiple of deliveries, as is typical for a futures market.

He explains that the 150 million ounces removed from COMEX inventories in recent months were not consumed but shipped back to London due to arbitrage opportunities. London inventories have increased by almost 200 million ounces as a result. The reported shortages are primarily affecting small retail investors seeking physical bars and coins in North America and India, not wholesale bullion markets.

VI. CPM Group Services & Upcoming Events

Christian concludes by promoting CPM Group’s services, including:

• Silverfax and Fantasies Seminar: February 26, 10:00 a.m. EST.
• Second Quarter Open Forum: April 22nd (for clients).
• Yearbooks: Gold, Silver, and Renaissance reports available for pre-order ($160 each).
• Website & Contact Information: info@cpmgroup.com for research and consulting inquiries.

Notable Quote:

“Clearly, they don't want the world to have access to accurate, good, unbiased information.” – Jeff Christian, referring to the US government’s cancellation of the CIA World Factbook.

Data & Statistics:

• Gold Price: Approximately $5,100/ounce (February 12, 2026).
• Gold Price Rise (Jan 2026): $4,400 to $5,600 (a $1,200 increase).
• Silver Price: Around $83/ounce (February 12, 2026).
• Silver Price Spike (Late 2025): $70 to over $120.
• COMEX Total Silver Inventories: Approximately 380 million ounces.
• COMEX Registered Silver Inventories: Over 100 million ounces.
• COMEX March Open Interest (Silver): 339-340 million ounces.
• London Silver Inventories: Almost 200 million ounces higher than in early 2025.
• CFTC Chicago Office Staff: Reduced to 3 investigators and 1 paralegal.

Conclusion:

Jeff Christian presents a nuanced outlook for precious metals, highlighting the potential for volatility, particularly in silver, platinum, and palladium. While gold is expected to maintain upward momentum, short-term corrections are possible. He emphasizes the importance of understanding market dynamics, debunking claims of widespread silver shortages, and remaining vigilant regarding declining market oversight and information access. The analysis underscores the need for informed investment decisions based on fundamental analysis and a critical assessment of market narratives.