Gold and Silver Market Update: 2025 Review and 2026 Outlook

Precious Metals Market Review & Economic Outlook – December 19, 2025 (CPM Group)

Key Concepts:

• Gold & Silver Investment Demand: Significant driver of price increases in 2025.
• Central Bank Gold Purchases: Continuing, but slowing, impact on gold supply.
• Fabrication Demand: Declining demand for gold & silver in jewelry and industrial applications.
• Mine Supply: Modest increases in gold & silver mine production with long lead times for new mines.
• False Narratives: Prevalence of inaccurate predictions regarding financial system collapse and precious metal supply.
• Genius Act: Potential systemic risk related to US Treasury stablecoins and potential for government intervention.
• Economic Data Analysis: Examination of employment, unemployment, CPI, and real earnings to contextualize market trends.

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I. 2025 Performance & 2026 Outlook – Gold

Gold experienced an “extraordinary” increase in 2025, rising from $2,641 at the start of the year to a high of $4,386, representing a 65% increase. The average price for the year was $3,387 (through November), almost $1,000 higher than the $2,395.94 average in 2024 – a 42% increase. CPM Group anticipates gold prices will break above the $4,400 level tested in October, likely in the first quarter of 2026, due to expectations of a more “problematic” economic and political environment. Investor demand drove this increase, with an estimated 41 million ounces purchased in 2025, a 13.5% increase from the 36 million ounces purchased in 2024, and nearly double the 21.6 million ounces purchased in 2023.

II. Central Bank & Investor Activity in Gold

Central banks added approximately 7.5 million ounces of gold to their reserves in 2025, down from 8.8 million in 2024 and 14.6 million in 2023. This decrease is attributed to central banks adjusting purchase volumes based on rising prices to maintain a desired percentage of gold in their reserves, not a reduction in their commitment to gold. CPM Group projects central bank purchases will remain around 8 million ounces in 2026. Investor demand remains the primary driver of price increases.

III. Silver Market Dynamics – 2025 & 2026

Silver also saw significant gains, trading as high as $67 today (December 19th) compared to a settlement price of $28.94 on December 31st, 2024 – a more than 127% increase. The average price through November was $38, a 35.5% increase from last year. Investor purchases are estimated at 134 million ounces in 2025, up from 70 million in 2024 and 42 million in 2023. CPM Group anticipates continued investor buying in 2026, potentially exceeding 200 million ounces, approaching the record of 226.6 million ounces set in 1980. A “parabolic move” is observed in the silver price.

IV. Supply & Demand – Gold & Silver

• Gold: Mine production, secondary recovery, and total supply of newly refined gold increased modestly in 2025 and are expected to do so again in 2026. However, the development timeline for new gold mines is lengthy (20-25 years). Fabrication demand (jewelry, etc.) is declining, particularly in India, China, North America, and Europe.
• Silver: Fabrication demand is also declining. Mine production and secondary recovery are expected to rise modestly in 2026.

V. Debunking Market Narratives & Addressing Misinformation

Jeffrey Christian strongly criticizes the prevalence of “false narratives” predicting imminent financial system collapse. He cites examples of long-term gold proponents who have repeatedly made incorrect predictions, including one individual who incorrectly predicted a collapse in 2008 and now claims the situation is “so much worse now.” He emphasizes that while risks exist, the global financial system has not collapsed and that investors do not need to believe in an impending collapse to justify holding gold and silver. He specifically addresses and refutes claims of a 90 million ounce decline in silver holdings in Comex depositories, stating inventories are near record highs and the silver is simply moving to different locations (London, Mumbai, private holdings). He directs viewers to CPM Group’s website for detailed studies debunking silver manipulation theories.

VI. Platinum & Palladium Market Overview

• Platinum: Prices reached $1,999 (as of recording), up 117% from the start of the year. Investor demand, fueled by a marketing campaign claiming a persistent deficit, drove the price increase. CPM Group projects continued investor buying in 2026.
• Palladium: Prices reached $1,770, up 97% from the start of the year. Investor and industry inventory buying contributed to the price increase. CPM Group projects a slight deficit in newly refined palladium relative to fabrication demand in 2026 due to mine adjustments.

VII. Economic Data Analysis – US Economy

Recent economic data reveals concerning trends:

• Employment: Job creation has plateaued since April/May 2025, with the US essentially at a loss.
• Unemployment: The unemployment rate has been steadily increasing since April/May 2025, though remains historically low.
• Hourly Earnings: Growth in average hourly earnings has slowed.
• CPI: November CPI data showed a decrease to 2.7%, partially attributed to a five-week government shutdown impacting consumer spending. While inflation has decreased from its peak in August 2022 (8.2%), prices remain significantly higher than in the late 1990s.

VIII. Systemic Risk – The Genius Act

A significant concern is the potential systemic risk posed by the Genius Act, which allows the US Treasury to potentially “wipe off” a large portion of the federal debt held in stablecoins linked to Treasury securities. This could occur if a significant portion of the debt is converted to stablecoins and the government faces financial constraints.

IX. Upcoming Events & Resources

• Client Forum: Open forum for CPM Group clients on Tuesday, December 24th.
• 2026 Yearbook: Launch dates for the Gold, Silver, and Platinum Yearbook have been revised.
• Webinar: Recording of the “Gold and Silver Renaissance 25 Years On” webinar with Silvercorp will be available on CPM Group’s YouTube channel. A six-page market commentary is available upon request ([email protected]).
• Website: CPM Group’s website (www.cpmgroup.com) provides access to research and analysis.

Conclusion:

CPM Group anticipates continued strength in precious metals markets in 2026, driven primarily by investor demand amidst a potentially more volatile economic and political landscape. While acknowledging risks, the firm cautions against relying on sensationalist predictions of financial collapse and emphasizes the importance of accurate data and informed analysis. The Genius Act presents a potential systemic risk that warrants close monitoring. Investors should consider a strategic allocation to precious metals as part of a diversified portfolio, but not based on fear-mongering narratives.