‘Give people satisfaction’: Calls for a Royal Commission continue to grow louder

Key Concepts

• Royal Commission: A high-level inquiry into a matter of public importance, possessing broad investigative powers.
• Richardson Review: An existing review into the events leading up to the Bondi terror attack, focusing on agency responses.
• Terms of Reference: The specific scope and limitations of an inquiry or review.
• Letters Patent: The formal document establishing a Royal Commission, defining its powers and scope.
• Intractable Conflict: A conflict that is extremely difficult or impossible to resolve.
• International Stabilization Force: A multinational military or peacekeeping force deployed to maintain peace and security in a region.
• Spin-off Terrorist Attacks: Terrorist attacks inspired or directed as a consequence of events in another region (e.g., the Middle East).

National Inquiry into Antisemitism & the Bondi Terror Attack

The discussion began with the recent open letter signed by over 100 Australian business leaders calling for a national inquiry into antisemitism following the Bondi terror attack. Mike Bazulo, former Home Affairs Secretary, explained the growing support for such an inquiry stems from the shocking nature of the attack – the killing of innocent people during a religious observance at Bondi Beach – and transcends partisan politics. He noted letters of support are also coming from the legal profession and people from all walks of life.

Bazulo addressed criticisms of the Prime Minister’s approach, specifically concerns about the scope and urgency of a potential inquiry. He argued a Royal Commission, properly structured with government-defined terms of reference, could address these concerns. He proposed a two-volume approach: Volume one, completed by the end of March, would cover the scope of the existing Richardson Review – assessing agency performance. Volume two would address the deeper, underlying causes of extremism and antisemitism, requiring a longer timeframe. He referenced former Chief Justice French’s view that an ongoing inquiry shouldn’t be hindered by this phased approach, and suggested Parliament could be recalled to legislate measures proposed by the government.

The core argument for a Royal Commission, according to Bazulo, is to provide public satisfaction that the matter is being investigated independently and at arm’s length. He acknowledged Dennis Richardson’s competence but highlighted the limitations of his current scope, stating, “The problem is he’s trapped within his scope and what a royal commission could do is go beyond scope to some extent.” He specifically pointed out that the Richardson Review cannot question ministerial decisions or assess the adequacy of resourcing for agencies, issues a Royal Commission could investigate by calling ministers as witnesses and reviewing relevant documents. He stated, “Who’s going to look into that? If it's thought that the agencies were properly and fully resourced to deal with this problem, that would have to be done very much independently of government, including by having ministers called and documents reviewed.”

Geopolitical Outlook: 2026 & Beyond

Shifting focus to the global landscape, Bazulo outlined key areas to watch in 2026. He began with Ukraine, expressing pessimism about the prospects for a sustainable peace. He believes Putin will not concede territory, and Ukraine will refuse to accept territorial losses, citing a breach of the UN Charter. He described the situation as “intractable,” noting both sides have mobilized their economies and populations for continued conflict. He estimated a less than 50% chance of achieving enduring peace. He used the hypothetical example of an invader taking Queensland and demanding to keep it as an analogy for the unacceptable nature of Russia’s demands.

Regarding the Middle East, Bazulo expressed concern that the momentum for a peace agreement, potentially involving the return of hostages, is fading. He emphasized the need for a Board of Peace and an International Stabilization Force, led by Arab and Muslim nations with European support, to disarm Hamas and maintain stability. He noted a lack of progress in establishing these pillars of peace. He also highlighted the need to monitor Iran, citing political dissent, the use of lethal force against protesters, and the reconstitution of Iranian capabilities after previous strikes.

Finally, Bazulo raised concerns about “spin-off terrorist attacks” inspired or directed by events in the Middle East. He noted the dispersal of Islamic State fighters after their defeat in 2018-2019, with many relocating to Africa and the Philippines. He believes they are exploiting outrage over the situation in Gaza as a pretext for violence against Jewish people globally, and suggested the Bondi attack could potentially fall into this category, while acknowledging the need to respect the ongoing criminal trial.

Notable Quotes

• “It’s just so dramatically traumatizing that it’s just creating this ground swell from outside of politics.” – Mike Bazulo, on the public reaction to the Bondi terror attack.
• “The problem is he’s trapped within his scope and what a royal commission could do is go beyond scope to some extent.” – Mike Bazulo, on the limitations of the Richardson Review.
• “I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but I think this is intractable.” – Mike Bazulo, on the prospects for peace in Ukraine.

Synthesis/Conclusion

The discussion underscored the urgent need for a comprehensive and independent inquiry into the causes and responses to the Bondi terror attack, with a Royal Commission being presented as the most effective mechanism to achieve this. Beyond domestic concerns, Bazulo provided a sobering assessment of the global geopolitical landscape, highlighting the intractable nature of the conflict in Ukraine, the fragile situation in the Middle East, and the growing threat of spin-off terrorist attacks. His analysis emphasized the importance of proactive monitoring, international cooperation, and a commitment to addressing the underlying drivers of extremism and instability. The key takeaway is the interconnectedness of these issues and the need for a multifaceted approach to security and peacebuilding.