Giá đất bị thổi phồng do đầu cơ, găm hàng và dự án xung quanh tăng nóng | VTV24

Key Concepts

• Giá đất bị thổi phồng (Inflated land prices): Land prices being artificially increased beyond their actual value.
• Đầu cơ găm hàng (Speculative hoarding): Holding onto assets with the expectation of future price increases, rather than for immediate use.
• Định giá đất dựa vào so sánh (Comparative land valuation): Determining land value by comparing it to recent transactions or nearby projects.
• Đấu giá đỉnh điểm (Peak auction prices): Using the highest prices achieved in land auctions as benchmarks.
• Bảng giá đất (Land price schedule): Official land price lists issued by local authorities.
• Hệ số điều chỉnh (Adjustment coefficient): A factor used to adjust official land prices for specific purposes like calculating taxes or compensation.
• Giao dịch tham chiếu (Reference transactions): Recent property sales used as a basis for valuation.
• Giá trị sử dụng thực (Actual use value): The inherent worth of land based on its utility and potential for use.
• Sốt ảo ( ảo): A temporary, artificial surge in prices driven by speculation rather than genuine demand.
• Cung cầu (Supply and demand): The fundamental economic principle governing prices.
• Phân khúc cao cấp (High-end segment): Real estate properties with premium features and prices.
• Năng suất vốn (Capital productivity): The efficiency with which capital is used to generate returns.
• Bong bóng địa ốc (Real estate bubble): A period of rapid price increases followed by a sharp decline.
• Nợ xấu (Non-performing loans): Loans that are in default or close to default.
• Luật Đất đai (Land Law): Legislation governing land ownership, use, and management.

Main Topics and Key Points

1. The Problem of Inflated Land Prices and Their Negative Impacts

• Widespread Issue: Inflated land prices are a persistent concern for investors and individuals seeking to buy land for housing.
• Negative Societal Impacts: Unreasonable land price hikes have negatively impacted society, distorted resource allocation, and created risks of macroeconomic instability.
• Specific Data on Price Increases:
  • Hanoi: Led the country with a 122% increase in real estate land prices in the last 5 years.
  • Hai Phong: Saw a 71% increase.
  • Da Nang and Ho Chi Minh City: Experienced increases of nearly 1.5 times.
• Drivers of Price Inflation:
  • Speculative Hoarding: Prices are driven up by speculation and hoarding, not by genuine housing demand.
  • Comparative Valuation: Land valuation methods rely on comparisons with inflated auction prices or nearby "hot" projects, creating a cycle of ever-increasing prices.
• Example: Dong Anh District, Hanoi:
  • Two years ago, land prices were under 50 million VND/m².
  • Currently, due to the development of nearby luxury housing projects, prices have quadrupled.
  • Specific examples: A house of 113 m² bought last year for 7 billion VND, indicating prices around 62 million VND/m². Another property nearby, despite being further from high-end projects, is priced at approximately 330-340 million VND/m², a significant increase from a few years ago when it was in the tens of millions.
• Example: A specific location in Hanoi: Land prices are currently around 140 million VND/m², a stark contrast to just 30 million VND/m² two years prior.

2. Mechanisms of Price Manipulation and Valuation Issues

• Organized Price Inflation: In many localities, especially Hanoi, land prices do not reflect actual use value but are driven by organized price inflation schemes.
• Using Peak Auction Prices as Benchmarks: A common tactic is to use the highest prices from land auctions as reference points, leading to a uniform increase in surrounding land prices.
• Local Business Community Influence: Local real estate business communities can influence land prices through cooperation and shared incentives, creating higher values in cohesive areas compared to uncoordinated ones.
• Flawed Land Price Schedules and Adjustment Coefficients:
  • Official Schedules vs. Market Prices: Local government-issued land price schedules are often significantly lower than actual market transaction prices.
  • Misuse of Adjustment Coefficients: When calculating land use fees, financial obligations, or compensation for land clearance, adjustment coefficients are applied. These coefficients are often based on reference transactions that have already been inflated.
• Critique of Vietnam's Valuation System: Unlike developed countries (e.g., US, Australia) where land sale prices are recorded for tax purposes and can fluctuate, Vietnam's system is criticized for an unspoken rule of only increasing prices, never decreasing them.
• Outdated Valuation Methods: The previous Land Law (prior to 2024) relied on a single consulting unit to determine land prices, which is considered an inaccurate approach.

3. Soaring Apartment and Housing Prices in Hanoi

• Current Price Levels:
  • Apartments in Hanoi: 100 million VND/m² is considered normal, with some reaching 260-300 million VND/m².
  • Terraced houses (nhà liền kề): Prices can reach 500-700 million VND/m².
• Dramatic Increases Over a Decade: Compared to 10 years ago, apartment prices have increased 5 to 10 times. At that time, the average price was around 20 million VND/m².
• Current Average Apartment Price: Around 80 million VND/m², not including high-end projects.
• Impact on Homeownership Dreams: Speculators exploit the market-driven land valuation approach in the Land Law to inflate prices, making the dream of homeownership increasingly distant for many families.
• Outskirts Prices: These seemingly unbelievable prices are now appearing even in projects on the outskirts of Hanoi.
• Example of a Corner Unit: A corner unit costing over 40 billion VND, implying a price of over 600 million VND/m² (based on an estimated area of over 60 m²).

4. The Role of Supply, Demand, and Speculation in Market Dynamics

• Land Price as a Component of Real Estate Costs: Land prices typically account for 40% of a real estate product's cost.
• Speculators' Justification: Despite increases in land use fees (under the old Land Law), construction materials, and labor, speculators use the market-driven land valuation approach to justify price hikes and create artificial market surges.
• Fundamental Cause: Supply and Demand Imbalance: The significant increase in housing and real estate prices in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City is fundamentally attributed to a large demand that outstrips supply.
• Demand for Affordable Housing: There is a critical shortage of housing for laborers, civil servants, and factory workers, leading to market chaos.
• Dominance of High-End Segment: In the current year, over 95% of newly opened apartments in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City belong to the high-end segment, priced between 76-80 million VND/m². Mid-range apartments (35-40 million VND/m²) that were available 3-4 years ago are now scarce.
• Impact on Foreign Investors: High land prices increase acquisition, rental, and usage costs, reducing potential profits and deterring foreign investors.
• Investor Strategy: When the market shows signs of strong speculation and prices far exceed economic value, investors tend to pause and observe rather than chase the price surge.
• Phased Pricing within Projects: It's common for later phases of a project to have higher land prices than earlier phases, reflecting market-driven increases.

5. Real Estate Sector's Financial Footprint and Risks

• Significant Credit Flow to Real Estate: Credit institutions have lent 4.1 million billion VND to the real estate sector, a figure four times higher than the country's public investment for the year, with a credit growth of nearly 17% compared to the end of the previous year.
• Concerns about Economic Impact and Risks: Questions arise about the effectiveness of this capital flow and whether high credit growth in real estate could lead to a repeat of past real estate bubbles and non-performing loans in the banking system.
• Wasted Resources and Idle Properties:
  • Example: Agricultural land used for growing vegetables is part of a development for multi-billion VND villas that remain unoccupied.
  • Social Resource Misallocation: Significant social resources are tied up in "ghost projects" (đẻ hoang) that are left empty.
  • Investor Behavior: Some buyers purchase properties but do not occupy them, or may not even need to occupy them.
• Low Capital Productivity: The real estate sector contributes directly about 3.5% to GDP but consumes nearly a quarter of the nation's total capital. This indicates very low capital productivity.
• High Vacancy Rates: Hundreds of villas are sparsely occupied, with hundreds of billions of VND lying dormant. The problem of unoccupied housing is more pronounced in central and major urban areas with high land values.
• Burden of Real Estate Speculation: The dream of getting rich through real estate speculation has become a burden for many investors, banks, and has distorted national capital growth.
• Cyclical Capital Flow: Capital flows into real estate cyclically: banks lend to developers, who then lend to buyers, and developers reinvest proceeds into new projects.
• Deviation from Economic Principles: This cycle is seen as contrary to normal economic principles, where credit should flow into productive sectors. Excessive credit in real estate can negatively impact manufacturing, trade, and service sectors, which are major job creators.
• Land Price Appreciation: Over the past 10 years, land prices have increased approximately 3.12 times, attracting significant capital from individuals, domestic businesses, FDI enterprises, and credit institutions.
• Higher Interest Rates for Real Estate Loans: Interest rates for real estate loans are often higher than for regular production and business activities.
• Collateral Dependence: Real estate loans are primarily secured by real estate collateral. A downturn in the real estate market could pose significant risks to the financial and banking system, particularly concerning non-performing loans.

6. Government Initiatives and the Path to a Healthier Market

• Legislative Action: The government has proposed a series of policies and mechanisms to address difficulties and obstacles in implementing the Land Law during the current National Assembly session.
• Positive Signal: This is seen as a positive step towards resolving issues and sanitizing the market for both citizens and businesses.
• Call for Strict State Management: The speaker emphasizes that only through strict, transparent, and public state management of land prices can speculation, manipulation, and price inflation be eliminated, ensuring the harmonious interests of citizens and businesses.