Germany is finally rearming against Russia. Can it go fast enough?

Key Concepts

• Zeitenwende: A German term meaning "turning point" or "watershed moment," referring to the significant shift in German foreign and security policy following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
• NATO Defense Spending Target: The commitment by NATO members to spend at least 2% of their GDP on defense. Germany is aiming to reach 3.5% by 2029.
• Bundeswehr: The German armed forces.
• Special Fund (Sondervermögen): A 100 billion euro fund established by the German government to modernize the Bundeswehr.
• Rare Earths and Critical Minerals: Essential components for modern military technology, with China holding a dominant position in their supply.
• D-risking: A strategy to reduce economic dependencies on specific countries, particularly China, without complete decoupling.
• European Defense Industrial Base: The collective defense manufacturing and development capabilities within European countries.

Germany's Rearmament and European Defense

This episode of Battle Lines discusses Germany's significant shift towards rearming and its implications for European security. Once a nation with underfunded and ill-equipped armed forces, Germany is now embarking on a substantial military buildup, driven by the perceived threat from Russia and a changing geopolitical landscape, particularly the potential unreliability of the United States as a security guarantor.

The Legacy of Underinvestment and the "Broomstick" Anecdote

For decades, Germany significantly underinvested in its armed forces, a trend exacerbated by a public sentiment that wars were a thing of the past and military strength was not a priority. This led to severe equipment shortages, famously illustrated by the anecdote of the Panzer Grenadier Battalion 371 Brigade using broomsticks painted black instead of machine guns on their troop carriers in 2014. This highlights the dire state of the Bundeswehr, where soldiers often lacked essential equipment, with only 70-80% of necessary items available. This period of underinvestment means Germany is currently in a "re-equipment" phase, needing to acquire basic necessities before focusing on advanced capabilities.

The "Zeitenwende" and Olaf Scholz's Response

The full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 marked a pivotal moment, prompting German Chancellor Olaf Scholz to declare a "Zeitenwende" (turning point). This speech signaled an intention to rebuild Germany's army and adopt a more hawkish stance on European security. However, critics argue that while Scholz's government made significant financial contributions to Ukraine, there was a sluggish initial response to military support requests and a perceived reluctance to escalate with Russia, exemplified by the prolonged debate over sending Taurus missiles.

Despite criticisms of a slow start, the Scholz government did initiate substantial procurement orders, including:

• 123 Boxer armored transport vehicles
• 265 protected trucks
• 19 Sky Ranger mobile air defense turrets
• Up to 1,000 American-made Patriot missiles
• A 58 billion euro spending spree, according to data from the Kiel Institute.

The German government also established a 100 billion euro special fund (Sondervermögen) to modernize the Bundeswehr and rebuild infrastructure crucial for military transit.

Friedrich Merz's Ambitious Rearmament Plans

Following Olaf Scholz's election loss, Friedrich Merz, the new leader, has presented even more transformative policies. His government plans to spend a massive 377 billion euros on defense, in addition to Scholz's initial 100 billion euro fund. A key policy under Merz is exempting major defense projects costing over 1% of GDP from spending limits, potentially allowing for unlimited spending on defense. This ambitious plan is underpinned by the anxiety that Germany can no longer solely depend on the United States for its security.

The Shifting US-German Security Relationship

A significant driver for Germany's rearmament is the growing realization that reliance on the US as a security guarantor is diminishing. This sentiment was amplified by Donald Trump's election and his administration's rhetoric regarding NATO. JD Vance's speech at the Munich Security Conference, which criticized Europe's democratic status rather than addressing the war in Ukraine, further underscored this shift. Merz's statement on election night, "We've got to accept a new reality where we can't necessarily depend on America to come to the rescue," encapsulates this evolving perspective. This realization is seen as more significant than Russia's invasion of Ukraine in driving Germany's defense overhaul, as it signifies a fundamental change in the premise of European security.

Defense Spending and Procurement

Germany's defense spending is set to reach NATO's target of 3.5% of GDP by 2029, significantly earlier than the UK. The country's defense purchases in the past year exceeded the combined spending of Britain, France, and Poland. The leaked list of planned military purchases amounts to over 350 billion euros.

The money is being allocated to a wide range of procurements, including:

• Aircraft: F-35s from the US for nuclear sharing and general aerial capabilities.
• Transport Helicopters: A crucial acquisition.
• Conventional Equipment and Ammunition: To address the historical shortages.
• Long-Range Missiles: Plans include the purchase of 400 Tomahawk Block VB cruise missiles, with a range of approximately 1,000 kilometers, capable of reaching Moscow.

A significant portion of this spending is directed towards US equipment. This is partly due to the US having developed certain technologies that are not yet available from European manufacturers, and partly to maintain ties with the US. However, there is a growing effort to increase European defense production and procurement.

The German Defense Industrial Base

The German defense industrial base is experiencing a significant boom. Companies like Rheinmetall have seen their stock prices surge, and new startups are emerging in areas like drone technology and counter-drone measures. Rheinmetall is expanding its production capabilities and building new sites. The perception of the arms industry has also shifted from a "dirty little secret" to a more acknowledged and supported sector, with potential for it to contribute to German economic development.

Debates on Future Warfare and Drone Technology

While Germany is investing heavily in conventional weaponry, there is a debate within the defense industry about the prioritization of drone technology. Some argue that the battlefield in Ukraine is essentially a "drone war" and that drones represent the future of warfare. Others contend that a potential conflict with Russia would differ from the war in Ukraine and might not involve as much drone technology. This debate is ongoing, with a focus on how to effectively and cost-efficiently counter the threat of cheap, mass-produced drones.

Dependency on China for Rare Earths and Critical Minerals

A major concern for Germany, and indeed for the entire Western defense industry, is the reliance on China for rare earths and critical minerals. China's dominance in this sector poses a significant vulnerability, as demonstrated by recent export restrictions. The newly established National Security Council in Germany has identified this dependency as a key issue. While a comprehensive plan is still being developed, the realization of this vulnerability is a crucial first step. Efforts are underway to rebuild European defense industrial capabilities and manufacturing to reduce this dependency.

Public Opinion and the Shift in German Society

There has been a significant "Zeitenwende" in German society's thinking about military defense. While anti-militaristic voices remain, a growing majority of Germans now understand that the world has changed and that armed forces are necessary for defense and deterrence. Unlike some other European countries, Germany has the financial capacity to increase defense spending by taking on more debt, due to its historically low debt levels and the existence of a "debt brake."

European Unease and the Need for German Leadership

While the idea of Germany rearming might evoke historical anxieties, the prevailing sentiment among most Europeans is a call for Germany to do more. European countries recognize that Germany's economic power and size make it a crucial player in European defense. While some Germans express unease about a more "muscular" military role, and Poland harbors historical anxieties, the majority of Europeans welcome Germany's increased commitment to defense and foreign policy. The consensus is that Europe needs to strengthen its own defense capabilities, and Germany is central to achieving this.

NATO's Defense Industry Forum and the Race to Rearm

NATO is actively encouraging member states to ramp up military spending. A recent defense industry forum highlighted the commitment of governments to increase defense spending, with a goal of reaching 3.5% of GDP within the next decade. This is shifting the defense market towards investment in advance, with NATO's Secretary General pledging to ensure increased defense spending translates into tangible contracts. Germany is planning to reach the 3.5% target by 2029, while the UK aims for the 2030s and Poland is already ahead. Germany is seen as a forerunner in this rearmament effort, with plans to establish the largest land force in Europe. However, the question remains whether this material leadership will translate into doctrinal or geopolitical leadership, a role currently more prominent in Eastern European nations like Poland and the Baltics, who are closer to Russia and have stronger political support for increased defense measures.