Germans still want children: So why aren't they having them? | DW News

Key Concepts

• Fertility Rate: The average number of children born to a woman over her lifetime; a rate of approximately 2.0 is required for population replacement.
• Demographic Aging: A shift in population structure where the proportion of elderly individuals increases relative to the working-age population.
• "Rush Hour of Life": A term used to describe the period of intense pressure when children are young (ages 0–6), requiring significant time and financial resources from parents.
• Child Intentions: The number of children individuals desire to have, which currently remains higher (1.8–2.0) than actual birth rates (1.3).
• Welfare Dependency Ratio: The ratio of working-age individuals supporting the social security, pension, and healthcare systems for the retired population.

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1. The Demographic Crisis in Germany

Germany is facing a significant demographic imbalance. In 2025, the country recorded its lowest birth rate since the end of World War II, with approximately 350,000 more deaths than births. Since the mid-1970s, Germany has maintained a low fertility rate between 1.2 and 1.6.

Key Implications:

• Economic Strain: As the "baby boomer" generation retires, the burden on the social welfare system increases. The ratio of workers to retirees has shifted from 5:1 a few decades ago to a projected 2:1.
• Labor Market: Smaller generations entering the workforce lead to slower economic growth and reduced living standards for both the elderly (due to pension strain) and the young (due to higher tax/contribution burdens).

2. The "Success Story" of Family Policy (2000s–2010s)

Germany previously reversed a downward trend by adopting policies modeled after Scandinavian countries and France, which successfully combined high maternal employment with higher birth rates.

• Methodology: The government implemented ambitious reforms starting in 2003–2004, including:
  • Expanding childcare slots.
  • Transitioning from half-day to full-day schooling.
  • Introducing income-related parental leave.
• Result: These policies successfully raised the fertility rate from 1.3 to 1.6 by the 2010s.

3. Current Barriers: The "Multiple Crisis"

Despite the success of previous reforms, birth rates have dropped to 1.3 in the 2020s. Professor Martin Bujard of the Federal Institute for Population Research identifies the "multiple crisis" as the primary driver:

• Psychological Factors: Young people are experiencing anxiety due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine, climate change, and economic hardship.
• Postponement: Research from the Forsa Family Survey indicates that child intentions remain stable at 1.8 (and 2.0 for those aged 18–29). People are not choosing to be childless; they are postponing parenthood due to uncertainty.

4. Proposed Solutions and Policy Frameworks

Professor Bujard argues that policy can still bridge the gap between "intentions" and "reality" through specific structural changes:

• Affordable Childcare: Identified as the single most important "game changer" for increasing birth rates.
• Redefining Work-Life Balance: The current model of both parents working full-time while raising young children is unsustainable.
  • The "Rush Hour" Support: Policies should provide support until the youngest child reaches school age (approx. 6 years old).
  • Flexible Working Hours: Encouraging fathers to reduce working hours (to roughly 34 hours/week) during the early years of child-rearing, with a transition back to full-time work once children are older.

5. The Role of Immigration

The analysis clarifies a common misconception regarding demographic decline:

• Argument: Immigration is necessary for labor market shortages but is not a solution for the aging population structure.
• Evidence: Migrants also age and eventually adopt the fertility patterns of the host country. While migration buffers labor gaps, it does not solve the structural issue caused by decades of low domestic fertility.

Synthesis and Conclusion

Germany’s demographic challenge is not a lack of desire for families, but a misalignment between modern economic pressures and the support systems available to young parents. While the country successfully used policy to boost birth rates in the past, the current "multiple crisis" has created a climate of postponement. The path forward requires moving beyond basic parental leave to a more comprehensive support model that addresses the "rush hour of life," specifically through affordable childcare and flexible, gender-equitable working arrangements.