Gaza truce: Where does it stand and what's supposed to happen under phase two? • FRANCE 24 English

Key Concepts

• Ceasefire Violations: Allegations of breaches by both Israel and Hamas impacting the stability of the agreement.
• Hostage/Prisoner Exchange: The initial phase focused on the release of Israeli hostages (including remains) for Palestinian prisoners.
• Rafa Border Crossing: A key point of contention, with Israel failing to reopen it as promised, causing friction with Egypt.
• Transitional Administration: Phase two proposes a governing body for Gaza comprised of a “Board of Peace” and Palestinian technocrats.
• Disarmament of Hamas: A central, and highly contested, requirement for the continuation of the ceasefire.
• International Security Force: Planned deployment as part of phase two to maintain security in Gaza.

Initial Phase & Current Standoff

The current situation in Gaza is marked by a fragile ceasefire, despite a return to relative calm. Both Israel and Hamas are accusing each other of significant violations, undermining the agreement’s stability. The first phase of the deal involved a partial Israeli withdrawal from Gaza coupled with the exchange of Israeli hostages – including the remains of deceased individuals – for Palestinian prisoners held by Israel. However, this initial period has been marred by continued violence, with reports indicating over 400 Palestinians have been killed in Israeli strikes since the ceasefire officially began.

A critical sticking point remains the return of the body of the last remaining deceased Israeli hostage held in Gaza. Israel is awaiting this return as a condition for further progress. Furthermore, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has twice failed to fulfill his promise to reopen the Rafa border crossing, a crucial lifeline for Gaza and a source of increasing frustration for Egypt. Reports suggest that officials within the former Trump administration are losing patience with the stalled implementation.

Phase Two: A Complex Transition

The second phase of the ceasefire agreement presents a significantly more complex set of challenges. It outlines the establishment of a transitional administration in Gaza. This administration would be structured around two key bodies: a “Board of Peace” and a group of Palestinian technocrats. The purpose of this dual structure is to provide both political oversight and practical governance expertise during the transition period.

Following the establishment of the transitional administration, the plan calls for the deployment of an international security force to Gaza. This force would be responsible for maintaining security and stability. Crucially, the agreement also stipulates the complete disarmament of Hamas, alongside a full withdrawal of Israeli troops from the Gaza Strip.

Disarmament Dispute & Palestinian Statehood

A major point of contention centers around the disarmament of Hamas. Critics are accusing Prime Minister Netanyahu of deliberately delaying the process by insisting on Hamas’s full disarmament before Israeli troops fully withdraw from Gaza. This approach is seen as creating an imbalance and potentially undermining the entire agreement.

Hamas, however, maintains that its complete disarmament is contingent upon tangible progress towards the establishment of a Palestinian state. This position highlights the fundamental link Hamas draws between security arrangements and the broader political goals of the Palestinian movement. They argue that disarmament without a clear path to statehood leaves Palestinians vulnerable and without a long-term security framework.

Political Pressure & Implementation Challenges

The situation is further complicated by external political pressures. The reported impatience from officials in the previous US administration underscores the international scrutiny surrounding the implementation of the ceasefire. The failure to reopen the Rafa border crossing demonstrates a lack of good faith implementation from the Israeli side, potentially jeopardizing the entire process.

The core issue remains the sequencing of events: Israel demands Hamas disarmament before withdrawal, while Hamas insists on progress towards a Palestinian state as a prerequisite for disarmament. This deadlock threatens to derail the second phase of the agreement and potentially lead to a renewed escalation of conflict.