Gaza ceasefire deal: What to expect next

Key Concepts Ceasefire, Hostage Release, Humanitarian Aid, Gaza Reconstruction, 20-point Peace Plan, Trump Plan, Disarmament of Hamas, Israeli Occupation, Multinational Task Force, Psychological Trauma of War, Displacement, Infrastructure Destruction, Aid Logistics, Crossings, Yellow Line.

Current Ceasefire and Hostage Situation A ceasefire is currently in effect in Gaza, accompanied by a partial withdrawal of Israeli troops. Hamas faces a deadline of Monday noon to release all remaining hostages, both alive and dead. This release is part of a larger exchange: 48 hostages (approximately 20 alive, 28 bodies) are to be returned in exchange for 250 Palestinian prisoners and 1,700 Gazans detained over the past two years. The release operation is described as a "massive logistical operation" with a 72-hour countdown that began after the partial Israeli army withdrawal on Friday noon. Challenges include locating the bodies of deceased hostages, which could impact the numbers of Palestinian prisoners released. Unlike previous exchanges, there will be no public ceremonies or media coverage for this release.

Humanitarian Crisis and Palestinian Return Following the ceasefire, hundreds of thousands of Palestinians are attempting to return north to find their homes, despite the extensive destruction. Gaza's infrastructure "barely remains," with Gaza City described as "completely devastated" and Khan Younis "decimated." Many towns are "unrecognizable," and people are returning to neighborhoods that have been "completely destroyed," often preferring to build tents on ruins rather than stay away from their land. However, for many, returning is not an option as Israeli troops still occupy much of the strip's border areas, retreating only to an agreed "yellow line."

The humanitarian situation remains dire. Thousands of people are still missing, believed to be buried under rubble, and many have been buried in shallow graves. Returning Palestinians are also seeking to find and properly bury their relatives. The UN has received a "green light" from Israel to begin scaling up aid deliveries from Sunday.

The 20-Point Peace Plan and its Fragility The ceasefire is part of a 20-point peace plan proposed by US President Donald Trump, who expressed confidence in its holding, claiming both Israel and Hamas are "tired of fighting." Trump is scheduled to visit Israel on Monday for a brief "in-n-out visit" to address the Knesset, followed by a signing ceremony in Egypt with the agreement's mediators.

However, the peace process is described as "fragile." Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has threatened to resume the war if Hamas is not disarmed or completely removed from power. Key issues like the future governance of Gaza and the disarmament of Hamas still need to be "hammered out." There is historical precedent for fragility, as Israel broke the last ceasefire in March. Hamas has sought guarantees from mediators and the US that the war will not be resumed, but the unfolding of future phases of the agreement remains uncertain.

Future of Hamas and Gaza Governance Yosi Miklber, an associate fellow at Chatham House, emphasizes the inherent fragility of ceasefires between Israel and Palestinian groups like Hamas. He argues that the agreement's success hinges on guarantors (US, Qatar, Egypt, Turkey, and the international community) holding both sides accountable for violations. He notes that the release of hostages could decrease tension and create positive momentum, provided there are no "shameful ceremonies."

Post-release, the focus should shift to Gaza's reconstruction and the sufficient entry of humanitarian aid. Miklber highlights the immense destruction, with "85% of houses being damaged or destroyed," and the "huge trauma" left by the war, necessitating time to rebuild trust. The "Trump plan" is seen as aspirational, requiring detailed implementation to ensure Palestinian self-determination and everyone's security.

Regarding Hamas's future, Miklber suggests that without the leverage of hostages and potentially without arms, their "political relevance, social relevance" within Palestinian society is uncertain. The "lack of details of how to decommissioning weapons" is an open question, and ultimately, the Palestinian society will decide Hamas's role. A US military multinational task force, potentially including troops from Muslim countries like Egypt and Qatar, is expected to oversee Gaza's rebuilding, with the hope that this signifies an end to the Israeli military occupation of Gaza and eventually the West Bank.

Humanitarian Aid Operations and Challenges (UNICEF Perspective) Tess Ingram, Communications Manager at UNICEF, reporting from Al-Mawasi in the Gaza Strip, describes the "incredibly crowded" conditions where displaced people are gathered. She reiterates that people are determined to return home, even to rubble, underscoring the urgent need for humanitarian support. The list of needs for children is extensive, including water, food, medicine, and shelter. UNICEF is providing tents and tarpaulins for makeshift shelters, and with winter approaching, blankets, winter clothing, and shoes are critical, as many children are walking barefoot on shattered rubble.

Ingram states that aid "could be delivered today," with the UN ready and UNICEF having "1,300 trucks prepositioned around the borders of Gaza." The main obstacles are the need for all crossings to open and operate efficiently, allowing aid to enter "fast and at scale," and ensuring safe conditions on the ground for distribution. She cites the previous ceasefire in February, when 500-600 trucks entered daily, proving that large-scale aid delivery is possible.

Current challenges for aid delivery within Gaza include:

1. Destruction: Damaged roads and extensive rubble make access difficult.
2. Mass Displacement: People are constantly on the move, requiring humanitarian services to relocate frequently.
3. Israeli Forces: Despite withdrawal, Israeli forces remain in over half of the Gaza Strip, necessitating coordination for access to those areas.

Conclusion The current ceasefire in Gaza presents a precarious window for humanitarian relief and hostage release, but its long-term stability is highly uncertain. While Palestinians are eager to return to their devastated homes, the scale of destruction, ongoing displacement, and the presence of Israeli forces pose immense challenges for both residents and aid organizations. The success of the 20-point peace plan hinges on the detailed implementation of its principles, the accountability of all parties by international guarantors, and the resolution of critical issues like Gaza's future governance and Hamas's disarmament. The immediate priority remains the safe release of all hostages and the rapid, unhindered delivery of life-saving humanitarian aid to a population facing a dire crisis as winter approaches.