France pushes to block Ukraine from buying US weapons & Moscow’s ‘glee’ at Trump’s Greenland gambit

Ukraine the Latest - January 14th, 2024: Detailed Summary

Key Concepts:

• Russian Air Defense Incident (Rostov-on-Don): Potential friendly fire incident involving a Russian air defense missile hitting a residential building.
• Black Sea Oil Tanker Attacks: Drone strikes targeting oil tankers en route to the Russian port of Novorossiysk, aiming to disrupt Russia’s oil economy.
• EU-US Weapon Procurement Dispute: France pushing for EU funds allocated to Ukraine to be spent on European defense industries, opposed by Germany and the Netherlands.
• Ukrainian Political Developments: New government appointments, including the Defense Minister, and corruption charges against Yulia Tymoshenko.
• US Investment in Ukraine: US-linked group awarded lithium deposit rights, potentially linked to securing future US support.
• Greenland Sovereignty Dispute: US-Greenland tensions over potential US acquisition, with Greenland asserting its independence.
• Russian Interpretation of International Events: Kremlin’s perspective on events in Iran, Venezuela, and the US-Greenland dispute.
• Rising Crime in Russia: Increase in violent crime in Russia, potentially linked to returning soldiers from Ukraine.

1. Military Developments & Incidents

• Rostov-on-Don Incident: On the night of January 13th, a Russian air defense missile reportedly struck a residential building in Rostov-on-Don, approximately 50km from the Ukrainian border. Initial reports blamed Ukrainian drone debris, but Oblast Governor Yuri Silizar reported damage to both industrial and residential areas. Footage shows two ground-launched missiles followed by a malfunctioning third, suggesting a possible friendly fire incident. While verification is pending, reports of a death in the impacted apartment block are credible.
• Black Sea Oil Tanker Attacks: Three oil tankers – Delta Harmony, Delta Supreme (managed by Delta Tankers), and Matilda (managed by Thenamarice) – were reportedly hit by drones while en route to Novorossiysk. Matilda sustained minor damage but remained seaworthy. The attacks aim to increase the cost of doing oil business with Russia, disrupting operations and potentially mirroring a previous incident at CPC moorings in Novorossiysk in November. Ukraine’s strategic goal is not to sink the ships but to make trade economically unviable.
• Drone & Missile Strikes Inside Ukraine: Drone strikes in the Dnepropetrovsk Oblast left 45,000 people without power, restored by 7:30 AM local time. Kyiv was also targeted, with a drone hitting a 16-story building in the Obolon district, though initial reports of a drone strike causing a fire on the eighth floor were later corrected. Russia launched 113 drones and three ballistic missiles at Ukraine on January 13th, with Ukrainian forces downing 89 drones and one missile.
• Frontline Situation: Russia continues to prioritize the Zaporizhzhia Oblast, attempting to push into areas southeast of Kupyansk, but Ukrainian forces appear to be containing the advance. Russian casualties remain consistently around 1,000 per day.

2. Political & Legal Developments in Ukraine

• Government Appointments: Gorila Badanov was appointed as the new head of the President’s Office, and Ola Ivashchenko assumed Badanov’s former role as head of foreign intelligence. Fedorov became the new Defense Minister, outlining plans for drone assault regiments and AI-driven defense systems. He also acknowledged the issue of 2 million people evading mobilization and 200,000 AWOL soldiers.
• Energy Ministry Appointment Failure: Parliament failed to appoint former Defense Minister Denis Shmyhal as the new Energy Minister, leaving the ministry without a head for nearly two months.
• Yulia Tymoshenko Charges: Yulia Tymoshenko, leader of the Fatherland Party, has been charged with offering bribes to members of parliament. The Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office (SAPO) and the National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) allege a systematic bribery scheme. The investigation included searches of her office and the release of alleged taped conversations and photos. This is viewed by some as a politically motivated attempt to remove opposition, while others see it as a legitimate anti-corruption effort.

3. International Relations & Aid

• US Investment & Lithium Deposit: A US-linked group, Dorra Lithium Holdings (TechMet, Rock Holdings, and Ronald Lauder), has been awarded the rights to Ukraine’s lithium deposit, potentially as a means of securing continued US support.
• EU-US Weapon Procurement Dispute: France is advocating for a condition on the €90 billion EU loan to Ukraine, requiring funds to be spent on European defense industries. Germany and the Netherlands oppose this, arguing it would hinder Ukraine’s access to crucial American-made weapons like Patriot air defense systems and F-16s. A senior EU official believes Putin is not ready to stop fighting, justifying the loan. The current plan proposes 2/3 of the funds for weaponry, but with restrictions on non-EU procurement.
• Greenland Sovereignty: US Vice President JD Vance is hosting Danish and Greenlandic foreign ministers amid escalating tensions over Greenland’s future. Greenland’s premier stated the territory does not want to be owned or governed by the US, preferring NATO and the Kingdom of Denmark. Trump dismissed these concerns, suggesting Greenland would face “a big problem.”
• US Involvement in Peace Talks: Wickoff and Kushner are reportedly planning a trip to Moscow this month for talks with Putin, potentially linked to the US investment in Ukraine.

4. Russian Perspective & Propaganda

• Iran & Venezuela: Russia has offered muted support for Iran and Venezuela, prioritizing its relationship with Trump. The Kremlin views these allies as useful when convenient but unwilling to expend resources when they face crises.
• Black Sea Attacks: Russian media downplays the significance of the Black Sea tanker attacks, focusing on potential Ukrainian responsibility and the economic impact on Kazakhstan.
• Greenland Dispute: The Kremlin is reportedly enjoying the dispute between the US and Greenland, viewing it as a sign of disunity among NATO allies.
• Rising Crime in Russia: Violent crime in Russia is at a 15-year high, potentially linked to returning soldiers from Ukraine.
• Propaganda & Disinformation: Russian propagandists are spreading disinformation about Ukraine and Western nations, including conspiracy theories about Scottish independence and alleged interference in UK politics.

5. Notable Quotes

• “Bravery takes you through the most unimaginable hardships to finally reward you with victory.” – (Motivational quote played at the beginning)
• “If I’m president, I will have that war settled in one day, 24 hours.” – Donald Trump
• “We are with you, not just today or tomorrow, but for a hundred years.” – (Quote from a Ukrainian source, likely a statement of solidarity)
• “Nobody’s going to break us. We are strong. We are Ukrainians.” – (Quote representing Ukrainian resilience)
• “We are the first in the world to create drone assault regiments… Our ambitious goal is to make Ukraine the first country in the world capable of predicting and neutralizing enemy attacks using AI.” – Ukrainian Defense Minister MO Fedorov.

6. Technical Terms & Concepts

• CPC (Caspian Pipeline Consortium): A major oil pipeline transporting Kazakh crude oil to international markets via Novorossiysk.
• SAPO (Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office): Ukrainian anti-corruption agency.
• NABU (National Anti-Corruption Bureau): Ukrainian anti-corruption agency.
• Ballistic Missile: A missile that follows a ballistic trajectory to deliver a payload.
• AWOL (Absent Without Leave): Military personnel who are absent from their duty without authorization.
• Pearl (Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List): A fund established under NATO to allow Ukraine to purchase weapons from the open market.
• S300 & BU M2: Russian-made air defense systems.

Synthesis/Conclusion:

The situation in Ukraine remains complex and dynamic. While Ukrainian forces continue to defend against Russian attacks, internal political challenges and international disputes over aid and procurement are emerging. Russia is exploiting divisions among Western allies and prioritizing its own strategic interests. The potential for escalation remains high, and the outcome of the conflict remains uncertain. The increasing crime rate in Russia and the Kremlin’s muted response to crises in Iran and Venezuela highlight the limitations of Russia’s influence and the fragility of its alliances. The US’s involvement in Ukraine, both through financial aid and potential peace negotiations, remains a critical factor in the conflict’s trajectory.